I usually agree with the members of the Progressive Caucus who signed the letter to Biden on Ukraine, but this letter is worse than useless. It will have the opposite of its intended effect. Here's why: 1/x
2/x far from shortening the war, I view it as a certainty that this letter will make its way to Russian state media within the next day or two as evidence of fracturing solidarity among politicians in Biden's own party for his support of Ukraine.
3/x it will further encourage Putin that his long-term strategy of keeping the war going until US domestic resolve breaks or a Putin-friendly politician wins the presidency is viable, and Russian propaganda media will work overtime to convince the public that it is viable.
4/x to further this fracturing, Russia will attempt to continue to disrupt global energy supplies and Ukrainian food exports, because the Progressive Caucus just told Putin that these things were creating domestic pressure in the United States.
5/x The letter just told Putin and Lavrov that their strategy is working. They now have incentive to conduct further atrocities in Ukraine, do even more damage to global supply chains, and keep that war machine going as long as they can.
6/6 the Progressive Caucus members thought they were trying to shorten the war. But if anything, they just prolonged it It was a baffling, severe foreign policy blunder that risks long-term consequences.
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