Today @bundeskanzler 🇩🇪 and @vonderleyen 🇪🇺 host an expert conference on #UkraineRecovery in Berlin. A 🧵 on how we got here, what to expect and what 🇺🇦 needs. [1/12]
How we got here: In July, 🇨🇭 hosted the first recovery conference. 🇺🇦 presented its #NationalRecoveryPlan, its Western allies didn't respond with a joint plan. The official #LuganoDeclaration only contains 7 broad principles (partnership, sustainability, ...). [2/12]
Several non-papers exist on how to organize reconstruction from a donor perspective, incl. @EU_Commission "Rebuild Ukraine" platform, an @EBRD non-paper about a 3-level structure + secretariat, an @EIB proposal on a "EU-Ukraine Gateway Trust Fund." [3/12]
The @gmfus plan for donor coordination is currently the most comprehensive blueprint out there. For a summary of GMF's recommendations, see this 🧵
https://twitter.com/KleineBrockhoff/status/1567454171611234308. [4/12]
What (not) to expect from Berlin: On Sunday, Scholz and vdL called for a #MarshallPlanforUkraine in @faznet faz.net/aktuell/politi…. Ambition is clearly there, that's good. But … [5/12]
… today will likely not produce any new grand plan. No new 💰 pledges expected. @BReg_Bund sees #BerlinConference as an expert conference, not as successor to Lugano. [6/12]
The 🇩🇪 government wants to make progress on governance and discuss financing models. If governance model along the G7+ framework emerges, conference will be seen as a success. If not, 🇺🇦 and 🇺🇸 will likely be disappointed. [7/12]
What 🇺🇦 needs from its partners: (1) weapons – successful recovery can only happen with security. (2)💰 macro-financial aid – 🇺🇦 needs a long-term mechanism to prevent it from becoming an economically failed state, during the war and after. [8/12]
(3) short-term aid to get through winter – what @OlKubrakov has appropriately called “survival projects.” (4) Hope for a long-term perspective for a prosperous future – an actual commitment towards a #MarshallPlanforUkraine, not just lofty ambitions. [9/12]
What should this include? An agreement on security assistance, e.g. the #KyivSecurityCompact by @AndersFoghR @AndriyYermak. A big tent of donors anchored by the G7, to keep 🇺🇸, 🇬🇧, 🇨🇦, 🇯🇵 and other non-EU countries on board. Recovery aimed at 🇪🇺 membership. [10/12]
War insurance to attract private investments. Anti-corruption and rule of law reforms as precondition for long-term aid. Ukraine takes ownership, donors set conditions. Creative ideas to use frozen #RussianAssets as long as seizing remains legally out of reach. [11/12]
Inclusion of civil society. Not least: an honest discussion about when to start and who pays. More info available here: gmfus.org/news/designing… [12/12]
@bruceestokes @ronja_ga @jfkirkegaard @gerhard_gnauck @akuchenbecker @LambeckSilke @robinwagener @nicolange_ @HConleyGMF @ConStelz @joerglau @W_Schmidt_ @ulrichspeck @thorstenbenner @BHermisson @SudhaDavidWilp @jan_techau @JochenBittner @n_roettgen @Koshman @fuecks @jgotkowska
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