1/ Two more videos of unhappy mobilised Russian soldiers in the field in Ukraine (this is becoming quite a genre now) highlight issues that have been seen several times before: they're being deployed without ammunition, food, water, clear orders or even tents to sleep in. ⬇️
2/ Men of the 423rd Guards Yampolsky Motor Rifle Regiment, who appear to have been deployed to eastern Ukraine (possibly somewhere around Lyman, judging from the terrain), complain:
3/ "We are standing on the front line, we have no ammo, no grenades, no food, no water... Here is the front line, we were sent here without training, without everything."
4/ They had to buy their own uniforms and have no logistics: "our support is what we ourselves were able to get" from another location, probably a nearby village, "5 km there, 5 km back".
5/ They have no clear orders, they don't know where the enemy are, and there is "no communication at all" with the rest of the Russian army.
6/ They say that "we got fucked everywhere". They are under "constant shelling, tonight [we have] 8 killed, 3 wounded", and they lost a tank.
"It's fucking shit," one of them says bitterly, "hello, Russian army."
7/ In this second video, men from Bashkortostan who have been deployed to the south in the Zaporizhzhia region complain of very similar problems. They say they were "sent to the fields, where people have no water, nothing to drink, no food."
8/ "Why should they buy everything at their own expense? They go to the nearest village themselves, buy all the food themselves, but there is no supply [from the army]."
9/ The men "sleep in hangars, people sleep naked [i.e. without tents] in fields, people are sick."
"How long can it go on?", one man asks.
10/ And note, once again: it's not even winter yet.
Multiple videos from different parts of Ukraine are all showing the same kind of problems: lack of logistics, lack of communications, lack of orders. What is going wrong? A few thoughts:
11/ 1️⃣ Russian commanders may have made a deliberate decision to deprioritise supplying the mobiks, saving scarce supplies for the better trained and more valuable professional troops. This would be ruthless but rational.
12/ 2️⃣ The Russian logistics system has broken down under the stress of having thousands more men to feed and supply, and simply can't cope with the extra demand. There's clear evidence from earlier in the war that it was already struggling to cope (as @TrentTelenko has noted).
13/ 3️⃣ Heavy losses of trucks and Ukrainian bombardment of supply routes has corroded the Russian logistics chain (as @WarintheFuture might put it), making it increasingly dysfunctional and ineffective.
14/ I have no idea which of these explanations might be true – it could be any, all, or some combination – but it suggests that the Russian army is in a very bad way as winter approaches. I wouldn't be surprised if reports of starvation emerge in a few months' time.
15/ While it's not clear how typical these reports are, it also suggests that despite the noise around mobilisation, the mobiks are not likely to be much use in combat. Hungry, demoralised, untrained men who don't even have ammunition aren't likely to offer much resistance. /end
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
1/ While some Russian milbloggers are still claiming improbably that everything is fine with the training of newly mobilised men, others are increasingly acknowledging that the army is providing little or no official training. Bloggers are organising to fill the gap. Thread ⬇️
2/ Pavel Gubarev, a pro-Russian activist and former neo-Nazi from Donetsk, comments on his Telegram channel that he is getting "a lot of reports from the ranges where the mobilised are collected. In short, there is no training and combat levelling, life is below par, etc."
3/ In response to "the criminal mistakes of the Ministry of Defence over the last 10 years," he writes, "civic initiative from below helps us to be combat-ready and equipped". An initiative called 'NVP from Rokot' aims "to solve the state task of preparing people for war."
1/ The Russian Rybar Telegram channel has posted an analysis (from a Russian perspective) of the recent missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian electrical facilities. It highlights how the attacks have systematically targeted key 330 kV substations. Translation ⬇️
2/ "Rybar's team continues its systematic analysis of the consequences of the explosive attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. The final (hopefully not the last) strike was carried out by the Russian Armed Forces on Saturday 22 October.
3/ 🔻 On that day, the following facilities were hit by explosions:
▪️ Target #1 - cutting off the Rovno NPP [Rivne nuclear power plant} from the 330kV power grid
➖PP Rovno 330, voltage 330/110/35/10 kV
PS Lutsk-North, voltage 330/220/110/10/6 kV
1/ Mobilised men of the Russian 55th Motorized Rifle Brigade deployed near Lyman in Ukraine have little water, no food, fake training, only small arms, a tank with no fuel and are taking heavy casualties. Their relatives complain that they are being treated like pigs. ⬇️
2/ The men's relatives, from Serov in Sverdlovsk region, have recorded a video appeal about their plight. They say that the men have no food and are being given only 1.5 litres of water to last two days, for two people.
3/ One of the soldiers tells his partner in a recorded phone conversation that they took a beating three times from the Ukrainians but he hadn't even fired a single shot. Some men were blown up by a mine. They were given only fake training for TV cameras.
1/ In a somewhat macabre ritual, the Russian army has brought in a priest to baptise (living) soldiers using body bags as baptismal fonts, according to Russian local TV channel Telekanal UTV. Translation follows. ⬇️
2/ Ufa archpriest Viktor Ivanov baptized soldiers in a plastic bag for cargo 200 [fatalities]. He said he was approached with such a request right on the territory of the airborne troop reserve, where he went. The priest spoke about this on his social media page.
3/ A basin was needed for the ritual, but it was not available at the unit. Instead, the archpriest decided to use a plastic bag for "cargo 200". He even saw a certain symbolism of death and life in this.
Today is St Crispin's Day – an occasion commemorated by Shakespeare with one of the greatest martial speeches ever written in the English language.
This day is called the feast of Crispian:
He that outlives this day, and comes safe home,
Will stand a tip-toe when the day is named,
And rouse him at the name of Crispian.
He that shall live this day, and see old age,
Will yearly on the vigil feast his neighbours,
And say ‘To-morrow is Saint Crispian:’
Then will he strip his sleeve and show his scars.
And say ‘These wounds I had on Crispin’s day’ ...
1/ Untrained mobilised Russian soldiers are being held prisoner in a basement in Luhansk oblast after refusing to go back to the front line. Following a bloody defeat near Lyman, they found that their own side had stolen all their personal equipment. Thread follows. ⬇️
2/ The independent Russia media collective ASTRA reports that mobilised men from the Lipetsk and Bryansk regions in Russia are being held in captivity by their own commanders after they were forced to retreat from near Lyman with "many dead and wounded".
3/ To make matters worse, relatives say that some men were mobilised illegally, without signing or even seeing their contracts. Some had deferments exempting them from mobilisation, but these were ignored. As one said, "I'm going there like a pig to be killed, I won't go".