Near Kupyansk, Ukraine is applying pressure east toward Svatove. In particular, over the past few days, Ukraine attacked Kuzemivka with ground forces and aviation (1). Russia is shelling the area around the town from Svatove, which is around 15km southeast.
In the Lyman area, Ukraine is attacking east toward the P66 highway between Svatove and Kreminna (2,3,4,5). Yesterday Ukraine secured Karmazynivka (2) and Nevske (4). Locals report heavy fighting near the town of Chervonopopivka (5). Civilians are leaving Kreminna (A).
There is heavy fighting in the Siversk area. Russia is attacking BIlohorivka (6,7). The Ukrainian MOD claimed they defended an attack on Verkhnokamyanske (9), but other sources say the fighting is actually very close to Verkhnokamyanka.
Ukraine is reportedly attacking Zolotarivka (8) and Verkhnokamyanka (10), and the fighting is described as intense. Verkhnokamyanka is a very small town a few kilometers west of the Lysychansk Oil Refinery.
Russia is attacking Spirne (11).
Russian milblogers posted a video today depicting an airstrike on a Ukrainian position southeast of Spirne, which shows Ukraine has moved several kilometers southeast from Spirne.
There is heavy fighting in the Bakhmut area without notable changes.
In Luhansk, Russians are moving mobilized infantry into Novoaidar and Stanytsia Luhanska.
Ukraine reportedly fired missiles into Starobilsk and Zolote-2.
To be honest, I have no idea where Zolote-2 is so I marked the area between Zolote, Zolote-3, and Zolote-4. It's probably there somewhere.
There is ongoing fighting in the Donetsk area without notable changes.
Ukraine is applying pressure south from Hulyaipole and Orikhiv. There is heavy shelling in Orikhiv, and artillery duels in the Vasylivka district, which includes Stepove, Stepnohirsk, Pyatykhatky, and Vasylivka.
Ukraine hit Svitlodolynske with a missile. A car bomb went off in Melitopol, and explosions reported near the rail bridge south of Melitopol.
Russians are moving into Vovkivka. Notice how many other towns in this area are already marked as either defensive positions or housing Russian soldiers.
In the Kherson area Ukraine reportedly attacked Pyatykhatky (21) and Ishchenka (22). Neither attack is reportedly large, probably recon by combat.
There are reports of extensive Ukrainian shelling along the Dnipro River. Russia is also mining the left bank of the river.
Reportedly, Ukraine destroyed an ammo depot on Kinburn Spit.
A Russian missile, reportedly after being shot down, landed on a gas station in Dnipro and created a large fire. Two died, including a pregnant woman. Two more were wounded.
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It is insane to me that prop planes were never supplied to Ukraine. People have been so focused on the wrong assets. It has been clear since day 1 that prop planes would be one of the most significant military upgrades Ukraine could get, and if they were provided on Day 1 this war could be very different today. They could have been hunting and destroying recon drones this entire time, denying Russia the ability to plan their missile raids and correct their artillery fire and airstrikes. This would have crippled the Russian military. Instead, we put all of our money into defense, which could not be delivered in the time frames or in the quantities to actually defend ukraine. This failure to provide prop planes is completely infuriating to me.
And, even worse, the people who failed to understand how important the prop planes were back then are still in charge of making decisions today. That alone should worry everyone.
These people just don't understand how this war was going to be fought, is currently fought, or how it will be fought in the future. And yet, somehow, they make decisions on which gear should be invested in.
It is honestly interesting seeing multiple prominent Russian milbloggers talking about the hopelessness of a Russian victory. I think they are starting to realize they goofed.
Sentiments along the lines of “no matter how many resources we push in, the front line barely moves”. “ukrainian and european production is growing faster than ours”. “next year ukraine will have more resources than us”
Tack on the comments about how 152mm artillery is a dead end technology due to lack of investment and development from the 80s onwards. Even their latest models, which Russia cannot even produce due to lack of industrial power, is dramatically inferior to even cheap 155mm pieces
Compare what Ukraine does to help and rebuild after liberating from Russian occupation to what Russia does once they enter and you can see which country is on the right side of history.
“We opened a Resilience Center in Balakliya.
This step is part of the All-Ukrainian Mental Health Program "Are You Okay?", an initiative of Olena Zelenska.
The project was implemented jointly with the Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine and the Coordination Center for Mental Health of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, with the support of the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF).
Resilience Centers provide psychosocial support, including group and individual counseling, parenting skills training, social support, crisis intervention, conflict resolution, and support for veterans.
Additionally, the centers offer day care services for children with disabilities, tailored to the needs of each community.
It is also a space for community members to socialize and organize joint events, initiatives and training sessions.
The centers were launched with the financial support of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ).”
Ukraine enters and begins to clear mines, restore electric power and water, repair heating systems, restore hospitals, rebuild schools.
Russia builds filtration camps, steals local land and businesses from the owners, turns schools into barracks, does book burnings, and begins logging the forests and stealing natural resources.
This is the 243 day of the Russian offensive, in this time they have almost 2900 armored vehicles + artillery destroyed plus 1100 more abandoned. Combined is just under 4000. This is actually an undercount as well, because we don't have enough money to buy all the high res sat images.
In the same time period, Ukraine has lost fewer than 900.
We are absolutely double counting vehicles. Its not intentional, its just inevitable. No matter how much we work to avoid it, it happens. But the vehicles we miss almost certainly dwarf the number of double counts. Like, we bought a high res image of an area where we learned we counted the same vehicle 4 times, but there were also like 40+ vehicles nobody anywhere knew were lost. And even still several dozen of those have never been spotted on any photo or video we can find.
I have an idea. Every time someone uses the total number of Russian mortar + 122 + 152 ammo production to 155mm production, they have to donate 1/4 of their salary to the Czech ammo purchase. Does that seem fair?
Compare 152 to 155, 122 to 105 and mortars to mortars or stfu and don't say anything at all.
Also, comparing the price of a mortar shell to a 155mm shell: are you stupid?
Remember that time Romanov posted a video where he shot a howitzer, and then cut to a shell hitting a house? And how the shell that hit that house killed a civilian? Now, I cannot tell you Romanov fired that exact shell, but he wanted you to think he did.