Near Kupyansk, Ukraine is applying pressure east toward Svatove. In particular, over the past few days, Ukraine attacked Kuzemivka with ground forces and aviation (1). Russia is shelling the area around the town from Svatove, which is around 15km southeast.
In the Lyman area, Ukraine is attacking east toward the P66 highway between Svatove and Kreminna (2,3,4,5). Yesterday Ukraine secured Karmazynivka (2) and Nevske (4). Locals report heavy fighting near the town of Chervonopopivka (5). Civilians are leaving Kreminna (A).
There is heavy fighting in the Siversk area. Russia is attacking BIlohorivka (6,7). The Ukrainian MOD claimed they defended an attack on Verkhnokamyanske (9), but other sources say the fighting is actually very close to Verkhnokamyanka.
Ukraine is reportedly attacking Zolotarivka (8) and Verkhnokamyanka (10), and the fighting is described as intense. Verkhnokamyanka is a very small town a few kilometers west of the Lysychansk Oil Refinery.
Russia is attacking Spirne (11).
Russian milblogers posted a video today depicting an airstrike on a Ukrainian position southeast of Spirne, which shows Ukraine has moved several kilometers southeast from Spirne.
There is heavy fighting in the Bakhmut area without notable changes.
In Luhansk, Russians are moving mobilized infantry into Novoaidar and Stanytsia Luhanska.
Ukraine reportedly fired missiles into Starobilsk and Zolote-2.
To be honest, I have no idea where Zolote-2 is so I marked the area between Zolote, Zolote-3, and Zolote-4. It's probably there somewhere.
There is ongoing fighting in the Donetsk area without notable changes.
Ukraine is applying pressure south from Hulyaipole and Orikhiv. There is heavy shelling in Orikhiv, and artillery duels in the Vasylivka district, which includes Stepove, Stepnohirsk, Pyatykhatky, and Vasylivka.
Ukraine hit Svitlodolynske with a missile. A car bomb went off in Melitopol, and explosions reported near the rail bridge south of Melitopol.
Russians are moving into Vovkivka. Notice how many other towns in this area are already marked as either defensive positions or housing Russian soldiers.
In the Kherson area Ukraine reportedly attacked Pyatykhatky (21) and Ishchenka (22). Neither attack is reportedly large, probably recon by combat.
There are reports of extensive Ukrainian shelling along the Dnipro River. Russia is also mining the left bank of the river.
Reportedly, Ukraine destroyed an ammo depot on Kinburn Spit.
A Russian missile, reportedly after being shot down, landed on a gas station in Dnipro and created a large fire. Two died, including a pregnant woman. Two more were wounded.
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I see several things happening in Ukraine right now:
1: Ukraine has pivoted to a drone based defense. Most of the gains you see Russia making right now are coming as a result of one of two things. A: Inferior Ukrainian drone units or B: Overwhelming Numerical Superiority.
When I say an inferior drone unit, I do not mean the pilots are bad, or even necessarily that their construction is bad. It could be as simple as not having access to enough drones, or not having enough pilots. I simply mean the unit isn’t strong enough for the task.
Where we see the strongest drone units, we see Russia struggling to advance, Usually only advancing with extreme numerical superiority and enormous casualties.
First, the total losses by category. You see significantly more losses for Russia than for Ukraine. This is the first month where Rubicon played a significant part of the Ukrainian losses.
Roughly 17% of Ukraine's losses in the month of February were from Rubicon (328 out of 1965). Primarily in Kursk.
Here you can see Tank, Infantry Fighting Vehicle, Armored Personnel Carrier, and MRAP losses by day through the month. Note that Russia uses few MRAPs.
While Trump’s team spreads defeatism and tries to blackmail Ukraine into surrender, Ukrainian soldiers on the battlefield remain unimpressed by the proclamations coming out of Washington Oblast.
Their actions speak louder than words.
In recent days, Ukraine has:
Recaptured Kotlyne
Liberated Pischane
Pushed into Shevchenko
These gains prove two critical points.
🔹 First: Ukraine still has the ability to seize the initiative.
Despite immense challenges, its military can concentrate forces, execute counterattacks, and maintain operational momentum—suggesting it retains significant reserves.
If the West falters, Ukraine can continue fighting until Russia collapses. Slowly trading land against Russian offensive potentials.
If the West finds its backbone, Ukraine can decisively defeat Russia and end the war on just terms.
Europe could have invested 1-2 hundred billion dollars over the past 3 years, but instead they will have to invest 3-5 trillion over the next 20. I’ve talked about this many times in the past. The politicians made very unwise decisions because they were afraid.
Should have gone 100% all in on making Ukraine win from day 1. Full on everything. It would have fixed every problem. Countries still aren’t even doing this. Every single day you delay will cost you 100 or 1000 times more over the next few years.
You thought it cost too much to squeeze 20-30 billion dollars into your budget for 5 years. Imagine having to fit in 500 billion.
There is absolutely no reason for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia, at all, for any reason, in the year 2025. Any negotiations should start in mid 2026, when the Russian economy has imploded, their deficits are blasting off to the moon, and Russia can no longer fight.
Every country should be looking at the situation like this: we only have to get ukraine through the next 12-18 months. We need to throw in the money, weapons, and ammo available now to make this happen. This is not a forever war. There is 1 year left. We are 75% done.
Russia will have absolutely no ability to wage war in the year 2027. Zero ability. Bringing the war into 2027 should be the threat to Russia. If we supply Ukraine through to that time period, Russia risks absolute implosion.