Near Kupyansk, Ukraine is applying pressure east toward Svatove. In particular, over the past few days, Ukraine attacked Kuzemivka with ground forces and aviation (1). Russia is shelling the area around the town from Svatove, which is around 15km southeast.
In the Lyman area, Ukraine is attacking east toward the P66 highway between Svatove and Kreminna (2,3,4,5). Yesterday Ukraine secured Karmazynivka (2) and Nevske (4). Locals report heavy fighting near the town of Chervonopopivka (5). Civilians are leaving Kreminna (A).
There is heavy fighting in the Siversk area. Russia is attacking BIlohorivka (6,7). The Ukrainian MOD claimed they defended an attack on Verkhnokamyanske (9), but other sources say the fighting is actually very close to Verkhnokamyanka.
Ukraine is reportedly attacking Zolotarivka (8) and Verkhnokamyanka (10), and the fighting is described as intense. Verkhnokamyanka is a very small town a few kilometers west of the Lysychansk Oil Refinery.
Russia is attacking Spirne (11).
Russian milblogers posted a video today depicting an airstrike on a Ukrainian position southeast of Spirne, which shows Ukraine has moved several kilometers southeast from Spirne.
There is heavy fighting in the Bakhmut area without notable changes.
In Luhansk, Russians are moving mobilized infantry into Novoaidar and Stanytsia Luhanska.
Ukraine reportedly fired missiles into Starobilsk and Zolote-2.
To be honest, I have no idea where Zolote-2 is so I marked the area between Zolote, Zolote-3, and Zolote-4. It's probably there somewhere.
There is ongoing fighting in the Donetsk area without notable changes.
Ukraine is applying pressure south from Hulyaipole and Orikhiv. There is heavy shelling in Orikhiv, and artillery duels in the Vasylivka district, which includes Stepove, Stepnohirsk, Pyatykhatky, and Vasylivka.
Ukraine hit Svitlodolynske with a missile. A car bomb went off in Melitopol, and explosions reported near the rail bridge south of Melitopol.
Russians are moving into Vovkivka. Notice how many other towns in this area are already marked as either defensive positions or housing Russian soldiers.
In the Kherson area Ukraine reportedly attacked Pyatykhatky (21) and Ishchenka (22). Neither attack is reportedly large, probably recon by combat.
There are reports of extensive Ukrainian shelling along the Dnipro River. Russia is also mining the left bank of the river.
Reportedly, Ukraine destroyed an ammo depot on Kinburn Spit.
A Russian missile, reportedly after being shot down, landed on a gas station in Dnipro and created a large fire. Two died, including a pregnant woman. Two more were wounded.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
The war in Ukraine took a turn in June of 2023 when Ukraine launched a counter-offensive south in an attempt to break through toward Tokmak. This decision has influenced every event that has followed, leading to disastrous consequences for Ukraine. I will not go into depth about the offensive south, but in short, Ukraine burned through its ammo stockpile and 12 of its best brigades. The offensive badly weakened these brigades and eliminated Ukraine's already limited flexibility regarding rotating troops and responding to threats.
Immediately upon the conclusion of this offensive, Russia launched a large offensive on Avdiivka and Novomykhailivka. Avdiivka is a small suburb northwest of Donetsk city, and Novomykhailivka is a small village south of Donetsk. Russia's ultimate goal was to break through to the city of Kurakhove, which is a small city west of Donetsk and is the westernmost significant defensive position constructed by Ukraine on the Donetsk front. In essence, Russia's goal was to break through the Donetsk defensive line and force Ukraine to defend weakly defended territory.
Ukraine's Donetsk defensive line was well-constructed and relatively strong. As such, it required fewer soldiers to successfully defend and more soldiers to successfully assault. This created a defensive advantage for Ukraine, which helped ease its relative manpower limitations compared to Russia. Once Ukraine is removed from these strong defensive lines, it requires more men to defend the same amount of area and also fewer men to successfully assault, which gives Russia the advantage due to its superior manpower.
To succeed, Russia would have to create a large manpower advantage in a localized area to break through the hardened defensive lines. Once broken, Russia could then splinter its manpower into many smaller attacks and attack many places simultaneously.
I could review the timeline and list the settlements attacked, and my initial draft of this post included this information. But instead, I will cut to the chase. After capturing Aviivka, Russia simultaneously attacked many locations along the entire eastern front. At first, Ukraine could withstand the attacks, but with each lost position, Ukraine became increasingly weaker. Finally, the fall of Ocheretyne, the next railway stop northwest of Avdiivka, fell. This loss opened the floodgates that allowed Russia to flow across the Donbas and capture many settlements in a short time.
Ukraine has now reached a point where it has insufficient manpower to mount a proper defense. Even after shortening the length of its defensive line to increase the density of its troops, it still lacks the strength to stop the Russian advance.
Russians have effectively broken through the line of defense that was behind Vuhledar by getting into the middle of Bohoyavlenka. This defense line I was hoping could last at least 2-3 months, but was lost in 1. Largely due to extremely heavy bombing and horribly insufficient preparation by ukriane.
In essence, Ukraine spent 2 years defending their forward positions to buy time, and used that time doing nothing to prepare the next line of defense.
There really is no excuse Ukraine has for this failure. You have to point the finger at Zelensky. He is personally responsible for this. It was his job to defend Ukraine. You cannot blame "western partners" for failing to make the most basic defenses in your most critical areas.
Yesterday a bunch of Russian trolls were trying to tell me Russia doesn’t strike schools, so here is an example of such a thing. It is the most memorable strike to me, the videos of wounded educators being pulled out of the destroyed school is etched into my memory.
"According to the investigation, on October 5, 2024, at around 3:30 p.m., using methods of warfare prohibited by international law, the enemy drone attacked a bus traveling through the territory of the Rychkiv community of the Sumy district.
As a result of the attack of the occupiers, three passengers were injured - a 65-year-old man and 54-year-old and 63-year-old women."
I am not convinced Russians actually control the area west of the canal in Chasiv Yar. We’ve been geolocating Russians there for a while, if you scroll back through our map you can see the geolocations and you can see the videos. You can see what the area looks like.
That area is not conducive to being controlled by anyone, Ukraine has thick drone coverage, and anyone who passes through the area has a very high chance of dying. Furthermore, the structures are completely destroyed and there arent many suitable places for defense.
I doubt anyone controls this area. I doubt anyone could control the area no matter how much they wanted to or how many resources they put into it.
Russia is currently bombing Kurakhove into nothingness. They are systematically bombing the entire place into dust. Dropping every weapon they have on it. Glide bombs, tactical cruise missiles, artillery, rockets. They are trying to turn it to dust, to completely erase it.
Kurakhove is the anchor to the Ukrainian defensive strategy, it links their eastern line to their southern line. You can think of two concentric circles. There is the outer circle, that is Kurakhove. And the inner circle, that is Kurakhivka. Together they form this anchor.
Between the two is a giant reservoir. Russia is attacking Kurakhivka from the north. They are moving closer and closer to it. And now they are turning Kurakhove to dust.