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Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
@frankoz95967943
Oct 26, 2022 • 15 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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All this matures this friday.
Tin foil hat time - swiss banks own a LOT of us equities.
so they took a loan and bought tons of bonds.
This causes dxy to weaken yields go down, stonks go up, giving swiss a chance to dump equities.
then they repay that loan on friday.
further evidence - notice how the usdcnh lines riiiite up with the 30y....

buying bonds will weaken usd, moon stonks.
now swiss own bonds.

next they unload the dogshit (tech stonks) all day to anyone who will buy them.

How did swiss know earnings would be bad??
🤔
Still buying bonds in the after hour?
@SantiagoAuFund this is how the dxy member states have mitigated the dollar from hitting the stratosphere?

Each takes turns buying US treasuries - yesterday was a nice touch since the bond market is somewhat illiquid to handle such a huge demand right at the open?
You wanna see this visually?

Ok -
1) dxy relative to oil kinda tracks & falls below relative price of oil

2) oil tracks close

3) swiss buy 11B in bonds weakening dxy (that the swiss line) - stonks moon. Now relative to oil DXY a LOT weaker than oil.

So now rates++=big oil--
This prob why DXY has stayed relatively calm & in a trading range vs going to 120 (or higher) - these swap games and CB $ games - Swiss one is the one I caught - im sure there have been others more sneaky

Dxy going up or down like tue / swaps are the tell.
#CurrencyManipulation
The goal is to get dxy (purple) WEAKER relative to oil w/o mooning oil.
They achieved their goal

I imagine they might make it a little more weaker before they begin to hammer the oil market again.

So then, DXY++ (110/109 level) will mean oil-- RELATIVE to new low dxy
And what has all this swapping and crazy stuff done to other currencies lately?

Quite a bit
Red (usdchf - the swiss) tend to trade places with dxy

Rn dxy (purple) very weak, and usdchf very strong

strong dxy = weak stonks
So preparing for a swap or a slow fade today?
q's are ignoring dxy and trying to follow 30y yields
What the swiss did during opening market (1- buy bonds) today they did during the overnight (2)
its why dxy is down this morning.
CHF is continuing to buy bonds this morning
(1,2)
Its causing disruption in currency (4)
which is causing qqq's to rally (3)

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More from @frankoz95967943

Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Jun 26
This is beef.

Since covid its up nearly 175%

Many of you eat hamburger and madonnas.

This is why madonna's is no longer affordable.
👇🧵 Image
Here is mcdonna's vs beef

"Oz - they didnt collapse with beef going up??!"

correct.

And there's raisons.... Image
Enter currencies - zimbabwe'ing the currency has implications for the underlying

when u c it Image
Read 15 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Jun 25
The Final Reckoning - A Nation Consumes Itself
🧵👇

I study the vix, geopolitics and currencies - trying to make sense of what is actually happening in the context of sound bites we get here or there from government.

Its hard to paint an actual picture from a single sound bite or news article.

But when you put them all together you paint a tapestry - some call it a masterpiece - others call it a dystopian hellscape.

For each point I will try to include a relevant news topic.

Lets begin.
The U.S. is not just struggling; it's in a death spiral.

Driven by hyperinflation & desperation, the government is making choices that solidify its descent into kleptocracy and civil breakdown.

Here’s the terrifying truth that is unfolding
Crypto: Not Innovation, But Capitulation.

The government, facing a worthless dollar, is now frantically trying to contain crypto by regulating it into the banking system.

This isn't forward-thinking; it's a desperate attempt to co-opt the flight from fiat before total loss of control.

Its an admission the dollar is no longer a store of value which is pretty damning for a government to turn against its own currency like this.

#DeDollarization #CryptoControl

abcnews.go.com/Business/geniu…
Read 35 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Jun 17
Lets build.

This is my calculated vix.
The higher it goes the higher the vix should be.

👇🧵 Image
It is a function of bond yields.
Bond yields SLOW the markets down.
Its MORE expensive to borrow

The west runs on finance- price of debt (the yield) matters a lot, just like it matters to you when you buy a car a house or put chipotle on credit. Image
Zoomed in on right side Image
Read 42 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Jun 17
A while back i calculated what the vix SHOULD be based on yields.

(1) you can see clear correlation
(2) it broke but the peaks still match
🧵👇 Image
The vix is a function of bond yields. Image
Read 9 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
May 5
Currency fiddling.
Pegs.
Making your currency artificially weaker -

This is all great when you are attempting to game the system.

Until one day it blows up in your face.

👇🧵 Image
I have an open quiz, go ahead and take it before moving forward - cause its important to understand the game....
So what happened to TWD?

well, the game is "make our currency weaker so we can export more"

This has been going on a long time - they arent the only ones doing this.
Read 48 tweets
Expound the profound-Cut'n thru bs 1 layer @a time Profile picture
Apr 23
Its wednesday.

Lets break your brain again.

This is a currency thread.
🧵👇
This is complex, so clear your mind, get some coffee and relax.

You are in charge of a country call it "MyCountry" with a currency called "Denaro's"

In the past you invested heavily to build your factories and vities to make things as efficient (read low cost) as possible.
Now you want to increase trade.

What do you do?

You weaken your currency - now, your products compared to the world are cheaper than anywhere else.

Your orders explode.
Read 59 tweets

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