Hard to articulate just how far Germany's star in EU has fallen. In Bxl & EU capitals, Berlin is seen to be on wrong side of every important debate - weapons to Ukraine, more fiscal solidarity in Europe, energy market interventions etc. It's even affected bilateral Fr-Ger ties 1/
Last Thursday, France & Germany cancelled their annual summit after a series of bitter rows over energy policy in response to the Ukraine war. The postponement of the joint meeting is the first bust-up of this kind since the annual ministerial summits began in 2003 2/
Officially, the meeting in Fontainebleau, south of Paris, has been delayed until January to allow more work on joint initiatives & communiques. But one EU official said the meeting was cancelled by Fr after “some very serious hiccups” in Fr-Ger relationship over past few weeks 3/
To overcome the differences, @EmmanuelMacron has invited @OlafScholz to a lunch in the @Elysee today. Expect a symbolic show of proximity. But the truth is Scholz is clearly prioritising domestic coalition consensus over unity in Europe - and that seems unlikely to change 4/
The biggest source of discord has been Berlin’s plan to spend €200bn to soften the impact of high gas and electricity prices on its industry and consumers. France, like other EU member states, fears that this will falsify internal trade and competition within the EU 5/
Instead, Macron believes Germany should join in an EU-wide programme to boost and protect all European economies - similar to the ground-breaking €750bn post-Covid investment Recovery Fund successfully proposed by Macron and former Chancellor Angela Merkel in 2019 6/
Berlin points to €100bn spent by Fr to subsidise petrol, diesel, gas & electricity prices this yr which has kept Fr inflation at 6% compared to 10% in Eurozone. Paris retorts this money has helped households & small businesses – not industries which compete on Single Market 7/
But until now, Germany sees no case for another EU-wide “energy” recovery programme. The problem is inflation, not stimulating demand, Berlin says. I understand the Chancellery is reconsidering this position – but not quickly enough for Fr tastes to save last week’s summit 8/
Paris has also been irritated by Berlin's insistence on pushing ahead long-term with its abandonment of nuclear power. Macron believes the Ukraine war & severance of gas supplies from Russia has vindicated his own decision to build new generation of nuclear power plants in Fr 9/
But Ger has also been angered by France’s refusal to back Spain's plan to build a gas pipeline to Northern Europe. France says the pipeline is economically & ecologically unsound; Spain & Ger suspect Fr wants to protect the interest of its own nuclear & green-power industries 10/
Energy isn't only issue. Macron welcomed Scholz’ decision to boost Ger military investment. He's since been dismayed to see Berlin turn away from pan EU military-industrial projects & buy off-shelf equipment from US, undermining Fr hopes of greater EU industrial “sovereignty” 11/
Fr officials fear that Berlin’s neglect of Fr-Ger partnership under Scholz is not just clumsy oversight or indeed more complex domestic politics - but a generational shift in German attitudes towards the EU. Based on Berlin's reputation in EU right now, that may be right 12/
There have been Fr-Ger quarrels before. Finally both countries have always settled their differences because they knew they had to. Today's meeting will try to kick start that process. Fr is still very attached to idea of Fr G partnership. But officials wonder - is Ger too? ENDS
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