I interviewed the outgoing EE foreign intel chief @MarrMikk. Here are some of the assessments that might be more interesting internationally.
Russia's best units have been destroyed in the war which means it clearly lacks personnel to train the 200k men who've been drafted.
Russia's best units have been destroyed in the war which means it clearly lacks personnel to train the 200k men who've been drafted.
"What we are seeing in Belarus, is a training mission. Russia is using BLR officers to train the draftees." Marran says Lukashenko is doing anything in his power not to contribute BLR units to the war.
This means helping Russia with training, maybe with arms, allowing Russia to use their territories for troop movements and missile attacks. "Russia keeps pressing BLR to join the war, but right now it seems that Lukashenko can withstand the pressure."
"The probability of a nuclear attack is higher than it was 6 months ago. But even though it can't be ruled out, there are no direct indications to it right now. Russia (Shoigu) is openly escalating the situation."
He very carefully chose his words when I pressed him about Nord Stream. He said that Estonian intelligence "were aware of such risk [of sabotage]". He didn't name Russia as the culprit but advised to wait for official results of the investigations.
Marran also said the domestic temperature in Russia is growing ever higher. "So far Putin's regime has demonstrated how powerful Russia's military is. Now this lie is increasingly more difficult to sustain."
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
