Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Oct 26 9 tweets 3 min read
Going shift gears a little. Tomorrow the quarterly GDP report comes out. Estimates are it will show 2-3% growth.

It will be another sign of @POTUS's successful management of a challenging moment in US, globally.

As we prep for this let's review some other economic data: 1/
5 times as many jobs have been created under Joe Biden @POTUS as were created under last GOP Presidents COMBINED.
Jobs have been created at 50x time the rate under Joe Biden as they were over the last 3 GOP Presidencies.
Of the 44m jobs created since 1989, 42m - 96% have been created under Democratic Presidents.
During the Biden Presidency we've seen the lowest uninsured and poverty rates in US history, and the lowest unemployment rate since WWII outside the Korean and Vietnam Wars.

whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
While it has dipped a bit in recent days, wage growth continues to be way above historic norms. Almost everyone is making more money today.
New business formation, a real sign of the health and vitality of the economy, continues to be at very elevated levels.
Joe Biden is the third consecutive Democratic President to have presided over a huge decrease in the annual deficit.

The last 3 GOP Presidents all saw the annual deficit explore on their watch.

abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden…
And on GDP growth, so far the economy has grown at three times the rate under Biden as it did under Trump. 3 times. We will see where it comes in tomorrow.

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More from @SimonWDC

Oct 28
Happy Friday all. A thread w/things I'm seeing this am:

At this point in 2018 Rs had 300k early vote lead. Today Ds have a 2m vote lead. Turnout is 10% over '18.

Ds outperforming 2020 share in GA, MI, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI.

This is encouraging. 1/

targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022
Polls have been good for Dems this week. Almost all the tracks this week were +Dem, several showed 3-4 movements to Ds. Lots of good Senate polls.

"Election moving to Rs" not showing up in this week's public polling or early vote data. 2/

New @nytimes polls in 4 key House races are encouraging for Dems.

What they show is a very close election, with many races being decided by 1-2 points.

Why we have to keep working hard. Need to close strong. 3/

nytimes.com/2022/10/27/us/…
Read 10 tweets
Oct 27
Election things I'm seeing right now. A short, Thursday thread:

It's been a good week of polling for Ds. We've seen movement to Ds in the weekly tracks, good polls in NV/PA/WI.

It's a very close election. Keep working hard. 1/

Early voting data remains very encouraging.

Turnout is very high, and much more Dem than 2018 and a bit more than 2020.

Seeing particularly strong early performance for Dems in GA, MI, OH, PA, WI.

New Univision polls in NV, TX encouraging for Dems.

Strong D performance w/Hispanic/Latinos in both states a significant challenge to current media narrative.

Cortez Masto now up in 538 averages. See below for our new Hispanic vote presentation.

Read 6 tweets
Oct 26
Perhaps the biggest question in the 2022 election has been whether the big D overperformance we saw in the 5 House specials and Kansas would carry on to the general.

So far it appears that it is.

Turnout is much higher than 2018, and Ds are outperforming both 2018 and 2020.
Dems are getting a bigger slice of a bigger pie.

Let's look at MI. At this point in 2018 Rs had a 73k vote lead. In 2022 Dems have a 187k vote lead.

And to be clear it's a lot easier to turn out your voters over 2-3 weeks than in 1 day.

Who would you rather be right now?
Let's say each side have the resources to reach/turn out 100 people on Election Day.

For Ds 50-60 of those people have voted before ED, allowing them now to turn out 150-160 people. Early voting increases D turnout.

R vote late strategy is stupid.

Read 5 tweets
Oct 25
New Univision poll has Cortez Masto up 2 and up 33 with Hispanic/Latinos.
Here's a link to the new Univision poll that has Cortez Masto up 60-27 (+33) with Hispanic/Latinos.

Her campaign has repeatedly said their internals have her in the low 30s with Latinos, so this is consistent with their polling. 2/

univision.com/univision-news…
The two largest sample Hispanic/Latino polls done in NV this cycle have very similar findings for Cortez Masto over Laxalt:

Future Majority 63-25 +38
Univision 60-27 +33

More on the @FutureMajorty poll below.

ndn.org/hispanic-vote-…
Read 7 tweets
Oct 25
Updated TargetEarly data remains encouraging for Dems. Overall vote running 15-16% higher than 18. Here's how the vote is coming back D/R:
2020 2022 (now)
US 52-37 54-36
GA 47-46 51-41
MI 41-38 53-27
OH 41-44 44-41
PA 68-25 73-23
TX 41-48 48-43 1/x
VA 54-32 56-29
WI 37-42 42-29
and
MN 47-30 48-24
NM 56-38 59-37

Have work to do in AZ, NC. 2/x

targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022
The election is really close. They had some good polling last week, we've had some polling this week. Our candidates have more money to close. Early vote super encouraging. Gas prices down. GDP number should be good this week.

Keep working hard! 3/

Read 4 tweets
Oct 25
Friends, 3 reasons why it's important to vote early:

- allows campaign to target and turnout lower propensity/newer voters, increasing D turnout
- makes our elections run smoother
- creates a "hey everyone is voting, I need to vote too" bandwagon effect, increasing Dem turnout
Encouraging early vote so far in GA, MI, NV, OH, PA, TX, VA, WI.

Great work everybody!

This is a close, competitive election and every action we take matters. Keep working hard.

This is true as well. Once you vote you get taken off GOTV lists and calls and canvassing ends.

Another reason to make sure everyone in your home votes early!

Read 5 tweets

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