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Oct 27 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Candidate quality and messaging/narrative will drive the final outcomes.
In the Dems' favor: Dem incumbents aren't polarizing. GOP candidates have many flaws or are insufficiently charismatic. Dem messaging on abortion/social security sticks. Oct economic data support a Dem narrative that progress out of a once in hundred yr pandemic is being made.
In the GOP's favor: crime messaging/narrative is durable for them. GOP has a history of good e-day turnout. Dems are having to play defense in more House districts than is the GOP.
If the Dems get a respectable share of the under 50 vote to show up, they'll get a blue shift that will swing a lot of districts their way. If the GOP gets their surge of non college white voters, a number of races may swing their way.

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More from @blankslate2017

Blank Slate Profile picture
Oct 26
@JohnFetterman v @DrOz debate: Fett had lowered expectations & addressed his stroke in the opening. That lowered the bar. So I was prepared for some odd transitions, pregnant pauses & broken phrases, basically what most GOPers typically sound like & call themselves 'folksy'.
Oz wasn't articulate. He had a lot of words, but he wasn't particularly sharp or precise in his responses. He shoots from the lip a lot & it got him in trouble. An example was his flubbed answer on abortion. 'Local pols' being involved on abortion is a gaffe, period.
In fact, Fett very quickly picked up on Oz's claim that local pols should be involved in abortion decisions and played it back in his criticism of Oz's strident position on abortion.
Read 9 tweets
Blank Slate Profile picture
Oct 26
A big problem for the @LAClippers is the expectation that Norm Powell will be an Alpha scorer and he hasn't been effective. That forces others to change their mind set and that transition can be rough. @Reggie_Jackson has to have the mindset from last year to carry this team.
Reggie had a rough game for 3 quarters, but had he shot 50% the tone of this game would've been very different. In Q4, he looked very good w/his movement, was 2/4 from the field w/3 assists. Got the ball moving to multiple players, challenged folks on D. That's what they need.
PG also needs Reggie on the floor to set him up as he did in the win over Sac. PG isn't efficient when he dribbles too much. He's very effective from the wing (high elbow/foul area down to the basket)
Read 4 tweets
Blank Slate Profile picture
Oct 25
NC EV: 530,060 voted. Ds have a 10.3% lead in ballots cast (40.3%-30.1%). Ds are running better vs '20 (D+5.4) but, from what I can find, ehind '18 (D+12.9). The context, however, is that there were no major Fed or Gov races on the '18 ballot. So this +10.3 lead seems decent.
The Black vote share has increased to 18.6%, just shy of the 19.4% share in '20. The issue is that the overall volume of EV is going to be lower. 465,137 have voted over 5 days (93k). At that rate, we'd be closer to 1.8M-2M total EVs, closer to '18 (2.04M). EVs were 4.6M in '20.
If one assumes a turnout similar to '18 (53%) the EV share is going to be 45% of the total, and e-day voting will be a majority share of the total electorate. That's different from '20, when EV was 82% of the total vote.
Read 4 tweets
Blank Slate Profile picture
Oct 24
For context, in 2018, Ds won the overall Clark Co EV 45-34 (+11). In 2020, Ds won the overall Clark EV 43-31 (+12). To start, they're leading the Clark EV 45-32 (+13).
The other thing to note is that mail ballots are a much larger share of the total EV pool: 69% (in person EV is 31%). In 2020, VBM was 53% and in person EV was 47%. GOP is also running 3rd behind Dems and Indies in the VBM count (they're also 3rd in voter reg in Clark Co).
In 2020, Election Day voting was 11% of the total votes cast. Expect an 80-20 to 90-10 balance this year as well.
Read 4 tweets
Blank Slate Profile picture
Oct 23
NC EV: Dems lead the total EV in NC by a 40.6-29.7 margin (D+10.9%). They are running ahead of '20 at the moment (D+5.4%). Total daily in person early vote dropped to 101k/day (maybe a weekend reporting issue). rpubs.com/ElectProject/e…
If you assume 100-130k/day for in person EV, we may be looking at 1.9M-2.2M in the EV, which is far lower than the 4.6M that voted early in 2020 (5.5M overall). 3.75M voted in 2018. Probably looking at 3.9M - 4M total votes cast (modestly higher than '18, 52%-54% turnout).
That would make e-day about 50% of the total turnout. However, in 2020, EV was 82% and E-Day was 18%. A regression to 50-50 would be a pretty major shift in method of voting preference. If the shift is more modest (say 60 EV/40 E-Day), then we're looking at a lower turnout vs '18
Read 4 tweets
Blank Slate Profile picture
Oct 21
49 generic ballot polls taken w/Oct dates. Overall average is Dems 44.98% GOP 44.45% (+0.33). Excluding partisan GOP polls, the Dem margin is 44.98% - 43.90% (+1.07%). Dems have posted leads in 29 polls. GOP has posted leads in 18 polls. There are 2 draws. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-…
These margins are about -1 worse for the Ds from the end of Sept, so the GOP has had a favorable trend & they're posting more actual leads. GOP is also doing well in LV screens. That said, this is a close race and if the Ds get their vote out, they've got a decent shot to win.
GOP winning would align with predictive models and the underlying assumptions of those models for a midterm, but Dems winning would not be a huge shock or upset.
Read 6 tweets

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