GOP is relying on the media to both sides the debt ceiling giving them the political capital to blame Dems & have no consequences from a default. It's a mirage. If Biden/Treasury persuade markets/creditors to dismiss the debt ceiling as legislative minutiae, GOP power evaporates.
The debt ceiling 'debate' is a fraud. We borrowed the money years ago. The bill has come due. You pay the bill. It's fundamental to the economic system. If Congress authorized the borrowing it also validated the debt obligation. Therefore, it presumptively must be paid.
Nov 17, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
This bill gives Federal protection for a marriage that is recognized as legal in a given state. That's better than the current legal regime on abortion, where someone seeking an abortion outside of their red state can be criminally punished and have their privacy invaded.
This bill basically assumes that SCOTUS will overturn Obergefell and it provides fall back protection. If TX outlaws same sex marriage, the Feds will recognize a same sex marriage for a couple residing in TX that was performed in NY.
Nov 11, 2022 • 13 tweets • 2 min read
House Update: Using MSNBC’s list of called races + a few more called by Dave Wasserman, at present Dems have 203 called seats and the GOP has 209. There are 23 tossup or uncalled seats. 14 of the 23 are in CA.
Of that group, 6 of them are basically Solid to Safe D seats (CA-06, CA-09, CA-15, CA-21, CA-26, CA-34). That gets the Dems to 209.
Nov 11, 2022 • 9 tweets • 1 min read
Short take on the House: By my count, I see Dems at 211 and the GOP at 210 called or nearly called seats (421). That leaves 14 toss-up/uncalled seats. Dems have paths to get to 218 if certain races break their way.
Those 14 tossups/uncalled races are: AZ-01, AZ-06, CA-03, CA-13, CA-22, CA-27, CA-41, CA-45, CA-47, CA-49, MD-06, NY-22, OR-05, OR-06, WA-03.
Nov 9, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
This was Biden's point when he disagreed with Obama on the Summers approach in '09/'10. I always took a skeptical eye to 'inflation' (except for gas prices) b/c econ reports told us people were employed and spending $$$.
We let the media define this as a tumultuous, dispiriting time, when it should've been celebrated like the end of WWII. Biden ended the pandemic phase. He provided freedom through vaccines. He made gov't work again. We saw it in the economic boom.
Nov 9, 2022 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
The goal for Dems in 2024 is to appeal to the people who like them: younger voters under 50, minorities and college educated whites. Don't sacrifice hitting their political sweet spots to pacify 50+ voters or Trump voters in the hopes of managing margins. It won't work.
Cheri Beasley lost because the electorate was just too white. It needed to be younger and more minority. She would've won b/c her overall white share was surprisingly high.
Nov 8, 2022 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
2022 Forecasts, Scenarios and Predictions Vol 3: US House. Just about every analyst has made the GOP a lock to win the House. I think it’s a tossup (there could be tipping points either way). The available data, imho, don't support an overwhelming advantage for the GOP.
What gives the GOP an advantage is that at the current 222-213 margin, the GOP needs only 5 net gains to get to 218 seats and claim a majority. That’s why folks are in a rush to award the GOP the House. Imho, they have to earn it by beating front line Dem incumbents.
Nov 7, 2022 • 26 tweets • 5 min read
2022 Forecasts, Scenarios and Predictions Vol 2: US Senate. Polling has been all over the map with partisan GOP polls making an emphatic statement of where they think the races are, and non partisan polls basically showing the opposite. Here are my takes:
PA: Fetterman +3 (50-47). Fett has been ahead by 2 to 4 points since Oct 1. He's been averaging around 46% white support, and has strong white support even in GOP polls like IA. He’s also winning minorities by typical Dem margins and indies by around +6 to +7. .
Nov 7, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
2022 Forecasts, Scenarios and Predictions Vol 1: Everyone knows that this is a weird election cycle. Some folks are going to be right. Others wrong. A lot of the ET takes feel like nothing more than vibes to fit a predetermined narrative It is what it is. So here are my takes.
Congressional PV: Dems 50.3, GOP 48.2. Polls that provide data show Dems getting into the low 40s among white voters, which is more or less the magic threshold to win nationally. Polls during the final week have all seen the Dems in this range, with the GOP around 54%-56%.
Nov 6, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
ABC/WAPO has Ds down 48-50 among LVs and 48-49 among RVs. This is a +3 improvement for the Dems among LVs (no change among RVs). In addition, there are reasons to think this poll understates the Dems' strengths heading into e-day.
First, this sample has 12% of GOPers vs 14% of Dems/Dem leaners having already voted. However, per Prof McDonald's tracker, in 23 tracked states which report ballots by party ID, Dems have cast 43% of all ballots and Rs have cast 34% (nearly a +2M advantage).
Nov 6, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
The Grassley numbers seem to align to the 2020 exit polls (which were R+10 by party ID share for IA) in a year where the overall national electorate was D+1 (by party ID share) per exit polls. We are looking at a R+1 to D+3 electorate.
IA-02 and IA-03 look very competitive and winnable for the Dems. Axne (IA-03) has outperformed the state's congressional vote in both 2018 and 2020. She may do so again (in a district that got slightly more D vs '20).
Nov 2, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
NC EV: 1.44M early votes cast, including 1.33M in person votes. Dems' cast ballot lead is at +7.4, which is higher than '20 (+5.6). Avg cast ballots/day is around 100k. At that rate we're looking at under 1.9M total EV (lower than '18).
The total vote in 2018 was 3.76 million (EV was 2.03M or 54% of the total vote). Assuming the EV/E-day split is 55-45 or 60-40, the trajectory of the total NC vote may fall short of '18.
Nov 1, 2022 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
About 79 polls on the 538 tracker having Oct dates. Raw average: Ds 45.1, Rs 44.7 (D+0.4%). projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-…
If one excludes partisan GOP polls, the D margin goes up to +1.2%. LV polls only are GOP +0.6%. Excluding LV polls (RV +A only) is D+1.6%. That's essentially a range of GOP +1 to D+2 if you round to the nearest whole number.
Oct 30, 2022 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
NC EV: Looks like Dems had a big Saturday turnout as their overall EV margin went up from +7.8% to (39.2%-31.1%) over the GOP (+8.1%). Total vote is 1,126,702. At current rates, the total EV will be in the 1.9M to 2M range, close to but maybe short of '18 (2.03 M).
This race is really tough to figure out, because the EV is pointing to a lower turnout election relative to the last 2. Both sides have a plausible scenario where they bring supersized turnout of their strong demos to win.
Oct 29, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
The GOP has completely broken the polling averages this month w/junk polls so as to render them effectively meaningless. It’s as bad as 2012. However, that’s probably good news for Dems and bad for the GOP.
GOP efforts to corrupt the polling averages are so over the top, so ‘schlock and awe’ that more Dems are simply ignoring the polls, showing less worry and are just voting. The political narrative they want to drive isn’t sticking.
Oct 29, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
NC EV: 1,063,378 total votes cast, including 975,131 in person votes. Avg in person/day is 108k. At this rate, we're looking at 1.9M-2M early votes, which is pretty close to '18: 2.03M.
Dems lead the EV 39.1% - 31.3% (+7.8%), which is better than '20 (+5.6%) but worse than '18 (+12.9%). That said, there were no major statewide races on the '18 ballot, so '20 is probably the better guide, and that suggests incremental Dem improvement so far.
Oct 28, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
One reason to be skeptical of the view that the GOP has a dominant position in the House is that there really aren't polling data that show front line Dems in tough swing/lean Trump districts like Cartwright, Axne, Golden etc. behind. The GOP can't even beat Mary Peltola.
These NYT polls are good results for the Ds. Am I worried about NV-01 (Titus)? Not really. She's from a Vegas area seat that Biden won by +9. If Dems get their vote out in Clark County, she'll get over the line.
Oct 27, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Candidate quality and messaging/narrative will drive the final outcomes.
In the Dems' favor: Dem incumbents aren't polarizing. GOP candidates have many flaws or are insufficiently charismatic. Dem messaging on abortion/social security sticks. Oct economic data support a Dem narrative that progress out of a once in hundred yr pandemic is being made.
Oct 26, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
@JohnFetterman v @DrOz debate: Fett had lowered expectations & addressed his stroke in the opening. That lowered the bar. So I was prepared for some odd transitions, pregnant pauses & broken phrases, basically what most GOPers typically sound like & call themselves 'folksy'.
Oz wasn't articulate. He had a lot of words, but he wasn't particularly sharp or precise in his responses. He shoots from the lip a lot & it got him in trouble. An example was his flubbed answer on abortion. 'Local pols' being involved on abortion is a gaffe, period.
Oct 26, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
A big problem for the @LAClippers is the expectation that Norm Powell will be an Alpha scorer and he hasn't been effective. That forces others to change their mind set and that transition can be rough. @Reggie_Jackson has to have the mindset from last year to carry this team.
Reggie had a rough game for 3 quarters, but had he shot 50% the tone of this game would've been very different. In Q4, he looked very good w/his movement, was 2/4 from the field w/3 assists. Got the ball moving to multiple players, challenged folks on D. That's what they need.
Oct 25, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
NC EV: 530,060 voted. Ds have a 10.3% lead in ballots cast (40.3%-30.1%). Ds are running better vs '20 (D+5.4) but, from what I can find, ehind '18 (D+12.9). The context, however, is that there were no major Fed or Gov races on the '18 ballot. So this +10.3 lead seems decent.
The Black vote share has increased to 18.6%, just shy of the 19.4% share in '20. The issue is that the overall volume of EV is going to be lower. 465,137 have voted over 5 days (93k). At that rate, we'd be closer to 1.8M-2M total EVs, closer to '18 (2.04M). EVs were 4.6M in '20.
