A father confronted Target about why they sent emails to his teen girl to buy baby products.
"Are you trying to encourage her to get pregnant?" he shouted, only to find out she was already pregnant.
Here's how Target predicted such pregnancies and grew its revenue by $23B
"Are you trying to encourage her to get pregnant?" he shouted, only to find out she was already pregnant.
Here's how Target predicted such pregnancies and grew its revenue by $23B
In 2002 Target hired Andrew Pole to detect when a woman is pregnant.
They wanted to become a go-to store for all purchases, and it was not the case.
The research showed that during pregnancy, new parents are overwhelmed and are flexible with their habits and try new stores.
They wanted to become a go-to store for all purchases, and it was not the case.
The research showed that during pregnancy, new parents are overwhelmed and are flexible with their habits and try new stores.
The trick is to catch a woman in her 4/5th month of pregnancy, which is when they start buying mom-and-baby products.
Here’s how Paul created the pregnancy-prediction model:
Here’s how Paul created the pregnancy-prediction model:
He started with the Guest ID number to know each customer's purchase, card history, email details, and fav products.
After this, Pole looked at how shopping habits changed as a woman approached her due date.
He analyzed the data and found some patterns:
After this, Pole looked at how shopping habits changed as a woman approached her due date.
He analyzed the data and found some patterns:
a. Woman purchase 5X lotion at the start of the 4th month of her pregnancy.
b. In the first 20 weeks, a pregnant woman piled up supplements like calcium, magnesium, and zinc.
c. When her due date was near, she bought plenty of scent-free soaps, sanitizers, and baby washcloths
b. In the first 20 weeks, a pregnant woman piled up supplements like calcium, magnesium, and zinc.
c. When her due date was near, she bought plenty of scent-free soaps, sanitizers, and baby washcloths
Pole found 25 products "that, when analyzed together, allowed him to assign each shopper a pregnancy prediction score."
He could now estimate a woman's due date with 90%+ accuracy.
Using this model, Pole found 10000s of pregnant women in Target's customer list.
He could now estimate a woman's due date with 90%+ accuracy.
Using this model, Pole found 10000s of pregnant women in Target's customer list.
Target started sending them ads and coupons for mom-and-baby products.
Once it got new parents to buy those, it persuaded them to buy groceries, clothing, and toys and converted them into loyal customers.
The result? In 8 years, it skyrocketed its revenue from $44B to $67B.
Once it got new parents to buy those, it persuaded them to buy groceries, clothing, and toys and converted them into loyal customers.
The result? In 8 years, it skyrocketed its revenue from $44B to $67B.
That's a wrap!
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