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kumar saurabh Profile picture
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Oct 27 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
AC was megatrend 5-8 years back with 10% penetration story n high double digit market growth rate like we had platform companies last year, right? Lesson remains same - Never overpay to stories. Even if, do not overexpose mistakes (we all do, quantum is key) #respectvaluation
johnson hitachi
whirlpool
symphony - of course , it is not as easy as it is, growth, margins n lot of things baked behind these charts

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More from @suru27

kumar saurabh Profile picture
Oct 27
I see few popular handles highlighting shareholding data that FII increasing, retail decreasing kind of tweets with screenshot from @screener_in Request everyone not to blindly go with such tweets as they fail to do even basic detailing check. There are many instances where
it is just shifting of an institutional name from one category to another than anything meaningful. Attached one screenshot but there are many such examples. @faltoo bhai thanks for giving us our lifeline of investinh in the form of @screener_in . Kindly check if it's possible
to present this data better as these cases are way too many. May be that's how reporting is being done n you can't help but still, please check. One possible solution could be to simply put specific sub categories in public like retail less than 1 lakh, >1 lakh etc
Read 5 tweets
kumar saurabh Profile picture
Jun 17
If ever leave Twitter, will be proud of 2 things
1. Contribution during covid in apr'21
2. Continuous rant on overvaluation amplified from Oct'21
Here is master thread on each of those rants. Rarely asked but show some love if it made any +ve difference to your investing. journey
Image
#bector

Image
Read 26 tweets
kumar saurabh Profile picture
Jun 17
A thread of strength in the market.

An analysis which I did during Covid crash with @MashraniVivek on which sectors and stocks were strong, and we did pick pharma, chemical early cycle. Though we do not know where market is heading, doing such exercise always helps to find
strength when market bottoms. Of course, it requires much more reading and conviction building and hence should be taken only as a starting point. Here is how this list has been generated
1. Pick top 500 companies
2. Find list of companies which have fallen < 10% in last 3 months
Totally 61 out of 500 stocks.
This is how the sectors come up.
✍️Auto and Capital Goods stand out
✍️Do not ignore defence for sheer count as there are few companies in sector
✍️Next pocket looks like few beaten down sectors/stocks where may be value is emerging - FMCG, Pharma Image
Read 5 tweets
kumar saurabh Profile picture
Jan 10
🧵A thread of how a typical investing journey looks like by studying journey of Infosys from 2996-2022 in numbers.
✍️Infosys has generated a CAGR of 36.57%
✍️Infosys has given cumulative return of 333,652%

Quite impressive, is not it? However, the journey was not so smooth
✍️In last 25+ years while delivering this return, Infosys went through one 80%+ drawdown, two 50%+ drawdowns and five 30%+ drawdowns in terms of price fall
✍️ Time periods could be more frustrating the % fall at times. This is where 2020 Covid crash was though severe
but not frustrating as not many have gone through the time duration pain. Infosys longest drawdown period lasted for more than 5 years+. 2001-2006 and 2010-2013 , peak level investors did not see any return. Here are 5 worst drawdown periods for Infosys
Read 12 tweets
kumar saurabh Profile picture
Dec 12, 2021
🧵A thread on how company's books are cooked and 📒why reading annual report is important

This is a company where this is how its assets looked like. Notice 25% of assets are intangibles and there is an asset called - Business Commercial Rights
Now this is how company defined Business Commercial Rights - "The Company has entered into an exclusive facilitation service agreement with various educational trusts in accordance
with which the Company has exclusive rights for a period of 30 years to provide various
facilitation services for schools/
courses to be set up by these educational trusts. The Company has paid one time fixed fee to the educational trusts
towards such exclusive rights. The fee paid is recognized as an intangible asset and accordingly capitalized as ‘Business
Read 9 tweets
kumar saurabh Profile picture
Dec 2, 2021
Once you have read below thread and not yet bored, come and read this

3. If really doing fundamental investing, have your own conviction. Going through someone else research work is not conviction. Actual individual research starts after that
4. If technical guy, build your own system or process than seeking buy sell tips on social media. charts change views change, results change views change, its better to learn 1 time than asking 1000 times

5. Use social media to gather ideas but use your own filters
6. Above all, remember this. Both bulls are bears are thumping their own ego, nothing else, not their fault, human (me too guilty - both sides).
Read 4 tweets

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