You know why Powell keeps getting letters?
It's not about the coming unemployment, it's because he's in process of blowing up the Federal budget as interest on debt is heading towards over $1 trillion a year in a freakin' hurry. #math
Interest on debt is now the same size as the annual US military budget, which is by far the largest item in the US discretionary budget. And it's only going to get larger.
Let that sink in.
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Thanks @CNBCFastMoney for having me on last night where I make the case for a much larger rally still to come suggestive of coming pullbacks still be buyable for now.
This is the chart @CNBCFastMoney kindly recreated.
Principle view: No confirmed new bull market until $SPX trades on a sustained basis above the weekly 50MA which currently sits at around 4200. So until then all rallies are suspect. Weekly divergences can be powerful though.
@CNBCFastMoney Lots of questions about the $VIX this year being so tame on new lows. Ironically we saw similar behavior in 2008. After $SPX rallies into the weekly 50MA & then rejected to new lows the $VIX then even made an initial lower high before the real volatility kicked in.
Dollar breaking its most recent up trend after making a lower high, still above 2022 up trend.
$DXY
Monthly chart for context. Monthly RSI still historically extended. Potential for 2 back to back monthly rejection candles.
Previous occurrences have resulted in further dollar downside.
$DXY
The current Fed is incompetent, untrustworthy, ethically suspect and unaccountable for its continued mistakes.
It needs radical reform and a thorough change in leadership.
There, I said it.
Insisting on buying trillions of dollars in assets, including MBS into a supply constrained housing market during a time of record fiscal stimulus causing a historic asset bubble while purposefully targeting to run inflation above their target was a colossal boneheaded mistake.
Then they engaged in a campaign of misinformation insisting with hundreds of speeches & interviews that inflation was going to be transitory which was completely wrong.