Thread by @tshugart3

Having taken a closer look at these awesome photos, a few thoughts on some of the details...

https://twitter.com/eacayan/status/1585489489744474113

First, some great detailed shots of some of the gun towers built on each corner of all of the "Big 3™️" island bases. Here's one from Fiery Cross Reef. You can see clearly what looks like a transplanted naval gun turret, and an anti-missile CIWS.

Here's a shot of another gun+CIWS combo on Fiery Cross...

...based on those side and rear views of the CIWS, I'd say it's likely a Type 730 or 1130 CIWS, just like on the PLA Navy's combatants.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4…

You may notice the island's CIWS mount doesn't have radars on top of it like on ships. I think they've moved the fire control radar higher up on the gun tower, where it wouldn't be subject to blast from the gun turret right behind it. Here's a set from Cuarteron Reef.

As for the gun turrets, my best guess is that they're something like the dual-purpose 76mm PJ26 mount, as carried on Type 054A frigates. Here's a comparison:

Back on Fiery Cross, we have this garage with super-tall doors. There are similar garages on each of the Big 3 (one has 2). In each case the tall doors face out to sea, and there are shorter openings on the land-facing side.

Over on Mischief Reef, you can see another one these sea-facing tall-door buildings, as well as the retractable-roof buildings that are also on each island.

My guess is that the sea-facing garages are for angled cruise missile launchers (for anti-ship YJ-12 or CJ-10 land-attack missiles)(left), while the retractable roof buildings are for vertical-launch SAMs (like HQ-9, right):

Some more good detail from the great photos: while it often looks on imagery like these islands are empty, as you can't really see people doing things, here we can see a car driving around Fiery Cross and someone walking down a street. It's not crowds, but it's also not nothing.

Here we have a great shot of a KJ-500 AEW aircraft on the ramp at Fiery Cross. Given the gray color scheme with subdued markings, I'm guessing it's PLAAF instead of PLANAF? (IIRC they're blue-gray)

As mentioned elsewhere, we also have this likely Y-8/Y-9 inside a hangar at Mischief Reef. Thought not 100% proof, this might be an indicator that patrol aircraft are now at least semi-permanently stationed there, instead of just on temporary mission-oriented detachments.

On the topic of aircraft, you can see in several photos that the Chinese have blocked the runway on Subi reef by placing what looks like luggage wagons in multiple spots. As a pilot, I can tell you this is an unsafe act, hostile to anyone else flying in the area.

You see, when you close a runway, if possible you're supposed to mark it as closed so that pilot know that it's not safe to land there. This is an international standard per ICAO, who recommends that runways be marked for temporary closure.

The reason this is important is that if you're a pilot in command of an aircraft in true distress, you're likely to look for the nearest available runway and take it. If you're busy dealing with an emergency, you might notice a big X on the runway...

...but you may not notice a luggage cart *deliberately* left on the runway 1/3 of the way down until it's too late & everyone dies. Now, ICAO says the X may be omitted if the reason is short duration & ATC can notify folks. But IMO that's for exigencies, not something like this.

I mean, what if the aircraft taking these pictures had an inflight emergency & really needed to use the runway, which was fouled *on purpose*? IMO this once again puts the lie to the idea these islands were built for the navigational safety of all. They're military bases, period.

One thing I forgot (I don't want to go all the way back & move every tweet down 1), assuming the Type 730/1130 CIWS on the corner of each island has its advertised 2500m effective range vs missiles, here's what the interlocking coverage looks like for Subi Reef, for example. 🖖

Here are some more details to flesh out some of what I provided above: thedrive.com/the-war-zone/c…