Final panel of day 1 of #nukecon. Under Secretary of State Bonnie Jenkins, @UnderSecT, and NNSA Administrator Jill Hruby, @NNSAHruby, are in conversation with @nktpnd.
.@UnderSecT: The predictability created by arms control is more impact than ever. #nukecon
.@UnderSecT: In scoping out possible future arms control, admin discussed wide range of capabilities with Russia (including hypersonics and cyber). Moreover, arms control is about more than limits; also transparency and norms (including in space). #nukecon
.@UnderSecT: “We remain committed” to negotiations over a New START follow-on with Russia. #nukecon
.@NNSAHruby: Nuclear threat landscape includes proliferation risks (IAEA is “swamped”), tactical nukes and dual-use weapons. Can’t keep doing monitoring and verification in the same way. New technologies needed for new problems. #nukecon
@NNSAHruby: As part of Arms Control Advancement Initiative, we will trial promising technologies at Pantex. [This is a v good idea, in my opinion.] #nukecon
.@NNSAHruby: Arms control has facilitated “boots on the ground.” But new technology—including robotics—could permit improved remote monitoring (though doesn’t solve every problem). #nukecon
.@nktpnd: At what point do we treat North Korea as an arms control problem?
@UnderSecT: North Korea doesn’t want to talk to us. But if it did, “we would certainly not say no” to discussions about arms control. #nukecon
.@UnderSecT: Senate ratification is a “challenge” to arms control but is not “dehabilitating.”
@NNSAHruby: Non-binding agreements have the advantage they are easier to update to changing technology. #nukecon
.@nktpnd: Do we need a crisis to catalyze arms control?
@NNSAHruby: Normally I’d say no. But now I hope so since we’re in a crisis right now! #nukecon
.@UnderSecT: This is one of the most concerning times that I’ve seen. But it has led to greater interest in arms control. Hopefully some good will come out of current crisis. #nukecon
.@UnderSecT: Russia is in compliance with New START. We are discussing a date for discussions over resuming inspections. #nukecon
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.@rafaelmgrossi: Iran problem is becoming more and more “relevant” every day. (“I’m choosing a neutral word, ‘relevant.’”) #nukecon
.@rafaelmgrossi’s vision for IAEA: Use mandate to the full. Deal with tough problems. It’s easy to hold symposia on nuclear safety. But when a nuclear power plant is being shelled, the IAEA has to get involved. #nukecon
Welcome to day two of #nukecon! We’re going to discuss the deterrence and escalation implications of new delivery system technologies with @LauraEGrego, Greg Weaver, Sun Xiangli, and @ElenaChernenko.
.@LauraEGrego: New technologies won’t undermine U.S.-Chinese or U.S.-Russian mutual vulnerability, but could lead to escalation in crises because, for example, of the difficulty of distinguishing a space launch from a FOBs launch. #nukecon
Weaver: Maneuverability of hypersonic systems complicates assessing which targets are under attack.
FOBs/MOBs are more concerning. Potentially extremely short warning times; could undermine ICBM/leadership survivability. #nukecon
Now that the agenda for #nukecon has been fully announced, here is the gender balance of our speakers and panelists. Once again, a majority are women.
Female panelists: 53% (26/49)
Male panelists: 47% (23/49)
(1/9)
The % of moderators who are women (54% or 7/13) is essentially identical to the overall % of speakers and panelists who are women (53% or 36/49). (2/9)
And here are the geographic diversity stats:
United States: 55% (27/49)
Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand: 24% (12/49)
Rest of world: 20% (10/49)
.@G_Zlauvinen: Russian behavior puzzling. We were expecting Ru delegation to be led by Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov, but Ru didn’t submit visa application for him. Still, probably didn’t affect final outcome. #nukecon
.@G_Zlauvinen: Even in the absence of a final document, we proved the system worked. States engaged in actual negotiations over all aspects of NPT implementation. #nukecon
First panel at #nukecon. Can the Ukraine war end without nuclear use?
@KoriSchake argues that if the U.S. gets intel that Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons, it should provide that intel to Ukraine so Kiev can preempt.
.@PatPorter76: U.S. interests in Ukraine are limited. Needs to ask questions about which weapons to supply to Ukraine and what limits (including geographical) it should attach to supply.
As @MMazarr put, Pat is a looming presence over this panel.
Ash Carter will probably (and rightly!) be remembered for his public service, but don't forget his scholarship, which was excellent--and sometimes truly extraordinary.
For work on technology, it has a rare timelessness that makes it useful after 30 or 40 years. (1/n)
"Managing Nuclear Operations," which Carter co-edited, is a masterpiece--especially his own chapters. His chapter on communications for nuclear command-and-control is the best (unclassified) piece written on the subject. Period. (2/n)
His 1984 @Journal_IS essay on "Satellites and Anti-Satellites" was pathbreaking. Some aspects have been overtaken by technological developments, but you'll still learn much more from reading it than many of today's more breathless studies. (3/n)