.@rafaelmgrossi: Iran problem is becoming more and more “relevant” every day. (“I’m choosing a neutral word, ‘relevant.’”) #nukecon
.@rafaelmgrossi’s vision for IAEA: Use mandate to the full. Deal with tough problems. It’s easy to hold symposia on nuclear safety. But when a nuclear power plant is being shelled, the IAEA has to get involved. #nukecon
(The Marianos are now joking about how tweeting doesn’t solve anything. This is a hard truth.)
.@rafaelmgrossi: When going to Zaporizhzhia under fire, I was asked whether to continue or turn back. Had I said turn back, I would have had a staff coup on my hand! ;-) #nukecon
.@rafaelmgrossi emphasizes budgetary challenges coming from inflation. Jokes that, being from Argentina, 10% inflation doesn’t seem to bad. #nukecon
.@rafaelmgrossi Like it or not, nuclear weapons are a power factor. Always going to be proliferation pressures. Attraction to nuclear weapon or latency requires a nonproliferation “watchdog.” #nukecon
.@rafaelmgrossi: IAEA even has a role to play in preventing nuclear use by preventing pretext of dirty bomb detonation being used as pretext. Organization needs strengthening. #nukecon
.@rafaelmgrossi on personalities needed for a future DG: personal conviction in nonproliferation. Need to bring more women and developing country experts into the field. #nukecon
.@rafaelmgrossi: IAEA won’t politicize verification. Iran has asked IAEA to forget certain facts and accused me of blocking revival of the JCPOA (“I wish I had the power.”) Iran is a IAEA member state and deserves respect, but it must comply with its obligations. #nukecon
.@rafaelmgrossi: If Iran answers IAEA questions, these issues will be resolved. #nukecon
.@rafaelmgrossi: “Moved, not surprised” by visit to Zaporizhzhia. Establishing a zone around the plant is “self evident… How can you shell a nuclear power plant for god’s sake?” #nukecon
.@rafaelmgrossi: Whatever your military objectives, legitimate or illegitimate, they won’t be advanced by attacking a nuclear power plant. [If your (illegitimate) goal is terrorizing civilians, then I beg to differ.] #nukecon
Cuéllar: Is the IAEA prepared for a world with much more nuclear power, including many microreactors?
.@rafaelmgrossi: “I am fundamentally optimistic” about our nuclear future. There are challenges, but we should increase peaceful use of nuclear technology, eg Rays of Hope initiative for cancer. #nukecon
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Welcome to day two of #nukecon! We’re going to discuss the deterrence and escalation implications of new delivery system technologies with @LauraEGrego, Greg Weaver, Sun Xiangli, and @ElenaChernenko.
.@LauraEGrego: New technologies won’t undermine U.S.-Chinese or U.S.-Russian mutual vulnerability, but could lead to escalation in crises because, for example, of the difficulty of distinguishing a space launch from a FOBs launch. #nukecon
Weaver: Maneuverability of hypersonic systems complicates assessing which targets are under attack.
FOBs/MOBs are more concerning. Potentially extremely short warning times; could undermine ICBM/leadership survivability. #nukecon
Final panel of day 1 of #nukecon. Under Secretary of State Bonnie Jenkins, @UnderSecT, and NNSA Administrator Jill Hruby, @NNSAHruby, are in conversation with @nktpnd.
.@UnderSecT: The predictability created by arms control is more impact than ever. #nukecon
.@UnderSecT: In scoping out possible future arms control, admin discussed wide range of capabilities with Russia (including hypersonics and cyber). Moreover, arms control is about more than limits; also transparency and norms (including in space). #nukecon
Now that the agenda for #nukecon has been fully announced, here is the gender balance of our speakers and panelists. Once again, a majority are women.
Female panelists: 53% (26/49)
Male panelists: 47% (23/49)
(1/9)
The % of moderators who are women (54% or 7/13) is essentially identical to the overall % of speakers and panelists who are women (53% or 36/49). (2/9)
And here are the geographic diversity stats:
United States: 55% (27/49)
Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand: 24% (12/49)
Rest of world: 20% (10/49)
.@G_Zlauvinen: Russian behavior puzzling. We were expecting Ru delegation to be led by Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov, but Ru didn’t submit visa application for him. Still, probably didn’t affect final outcome. #nukecon
.@G_Zlauvinen: Even in the absence of a final document, we proved the system worked. States engaged in actual negotiations over all aspects of NPT implementation. #nukecon
First panel at #nukecon. Can the Ukraine war end without nuclear use?
@KoriSchake argues that if the U.S. gets intel that Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons, it should provide that intel to Ukraine so Kiev can preempt.
.@PatPorter76: U.S. interests in Ukraine are limited. Needs to ask questions about which weapons to supply to Ukraine and what limits (including geographical) it should attach to supply.
As @MMazarr put, Pat is a looming presence over this panel.
Ash Carter will probably (and rightly!) be remembered for his public service, but don't forget his scholarship, which was excellent--and sometimes truly extraordinary.
For work on technology, it has a rare timelessness that makes it useful after 30 or 40 years. (1/n)
"Managing Nuclear Operations," which Carter co-edited, is a masterpiece--especially his own chapters. His chapter on communications for nuclear command-and-control is the best (unclassified) piece written on the subject. Period. (2/n)
His 1984 @Journal_IS essay on "Satellites and Anti-Satellites" was pathbreaking. Some aspects have been overtaken by technological developments, but you'll still learn much more from reading it than many of today's more breathless studies. (3/n)