.#nukecon keynote. @iaeaorg Director General @rafaelmgrossi interviewed by @CarnegieEndow president Tino Cuéllar. Fun fact: They share a name: Mariano! Image
.@rafaelmgrossi: Iran problem is becoming more and more “relevant” every day. (“I’m choosing a neutral word, ‘relevant.’”) #nukecon
.@rafaelmgrossi’s vision for IAEA: Use mandate to the full. Deal with tough problems. It’s easy to hold symposia on nuclear safety. But when a nuclear power plant is being shelled, the IAEA has to get involved. #nukecon
(The Marianos are now joking about how tweeting doesn’t solve anything. This is a hard truth.)
.@rafaelmgrossi: When going to Zaporizhzhia under fire, I was asked whether to continue or turn back. Had I said turn back, I would have had a staff coup on my hand! ;-) #nukecon
.@rafaelmgrossi emphasizes budgetary challenges coming from inflation. Jokes that, being from Argentina, 10% inflation doesn’t seem to bad. #nukecon
.@rafaelmgrossi Like it or not, nuclear weapons are a power factor. Always going to be proliferation pressures. Attraction to nuclear weapon or latency requires a nonproliferation “watchdog.” #nukecon
.@rafaelmgrossi: IAEA even has a role to play in preventing nuclear use by preventing pretext of dirty bomb detonation being used as pretext. Organization needs strengthening. #nukecon
.@rafaelmgrossi on personalities needed for a future DG: personal conviction in nonproliferation. Need to bring more women and developing country experts into the field. #nukecon
.@rafaelmgrossi: IAEA won’t politicize verification. Iran has asked IAEA to forget certain facts and accused me of blocking revival of the JCPOA (“I wish I had the power.”) Iran is a IAEA member state and deserves respect, but it must comply with its obligations. #nukecon
.@rafaelmgrossi: If Iran answers IAEA questions, these issues will be resolved. #nukecon
.@rafaelmgrossi: “Moved, not surprised” by visit to Zaporizhzhia. Establishing a zone around the plant is “self evident… How can you shell a nuclear power plant for god’s sake?” #nukecon
.@rafaelmgrossi: Whatever your military objectives, legitimate or illegitimate, they won’t be advanced by attacking a nuclear power plant. [If your (illegitimate) goal is terrorizing civilians, then I beg to differ.] #nukecon
Cuéllar: Is the IAEA prepared for a world with much more nuclear power, including many microreactors?

@rafaelmgrossi: “Yes.” #nukecon
.@rafaelmgrossi: “I am fundamentally optimistic” about our nuclear future. There are challenges, but we should increase peaceful use of nuclear technology, eg Rays of Hope initiative for cancer. #nukecon

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More from @james_acton32

Oct 28
Welcome to day two of #nukecon! We’re going to discuss the deterrence and escalation implications of new delivery system technologies with @LauraEGrego, Greg Weaver, Sun Xiangli, and @ElenaChernenko.
.@LauraEGrego: New technologies won’t undermine U.S.-Chinese or U.S.-Russian mutual vulnerability, but could lead to escalation in crises because, for example, of the difficulty of distinguishing a space launch from a FOBs launch. #nukecon
Weaver: Maneuverability of hypersonic systems complicates assessing which targets are under attack.

FOBs/MOBs are more concerning. Potentially extremely short warning times; could undermine ICBM/leadership survivability. #nukecon
Read 14 tweets
Oct 27
Final panel of day 1 of #nukecon. Under Secretary of State Bonnie Jenkins, @UnderSecT, and NNSA Administrator Jill Hruby, @NNSAHruby, are in conversation with @nktpnd. Image
.@UnderSecT: The predictability created by arms control is more impact than ever. #nukecon
.@UnderSecT: In scoping out possible future arms control, admin discussed wide range of capabilities with Russia (including hypersonics and cyber). Moreover, arms control is about more than limits; also transparency and norms (including in space). #nukecon
Read 12 tweets
Oct 27
Now that the agenda for #nukecon has been fully announced, here is the gender balance of our speakers and panelists. Once again, a majority are women.

Female panelists: 53% (26/49)
Male panelists: 47% (23/49)

(1/9)
The % of moderators who are women (54% or 7/13) is essentially identical to the overall % of speakers and panelists who are women (53% or 36/49). (2/9)
And here are the geographic diversity stats:

United States: 55% (27/49)
Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand: 24% (12/49)
Rest of world: 20% (10/49)

% of Americans is similar to 2019 and 2021.

(3/9)
Read 9 tweets
Oct 27
Next at #nukecon: Amb @G_Zlauvinen, president of the tenth NPT Review Conference, in conversation with Amb @AmbKennedy_ret. Image
.@G_Zlauvinen: Russian behavior puzzling. We were expecting Ru delegation to be led by Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov, but Ru didn’t submit visa application for him. Still, probably didn’t affect final outcome. #nukecon
.@G_Zlauvinen: Even in the absence of a final document, we proved the system worked. States engaged in actual negotiations over all aspects of NPT implementation. #nukecon
Read 11 tweets
Oct 27
First panel at #nukecon. Can the Ukraine war end without nuclear use?

@KoriSchake argues that if the U.S. gets intel that Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons, it should provide that intel to Ukraine so Kiev can preempt.
.@PatPorter76: U.S. interests in Ukraine are limited. Needs to ask questions about which weapons to supply to Ukraine and what limits (including geographical) it should attach to supply.
As @MMazarr put, Pat is a looming presence over this panel. Image
Read 20 tweets
Oct 25
Ash Carter will probably (and rightly!) be remembered for his public service, but don't forget his scholarship, which was excellent--and sometimes truly extraordinary.

For work on technology, it has a rare timelessness that makes it useful after 30 or 40 years. (1/n)
"Managing Nuclear Operations," which Carter co-edited, is a masterpiece--especially his own chapters. His chapter on communications for nuclear command-and-control is the best (unclassified) piece written on the subject. Period. (2/n)

amazon.com/Managing-Nucle…
His 1984 @Journal_IS essay on "Satellites and Anti-Satellites" was pathbreaking. Some aspects have been overtaken by technological developments, but you'll still learn much more from reading it than many of today's more breathless studies. (3/n)

belfercenter.org/publication/sa…
Read 4 tweets

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