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Oct 29 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Our latest #FridayReport COVID update is now available featuring:
- Autumns boosters: over 10m now boosted
- protection against Omicron from boosters and prior infection
- AZ nasal vaccine disappoints
- Pfizer bivalent vaccine approved in USA for age 5-11
covidactuaries.org/2022/10/28/fri…
Also featured:
- Moderna bivalent booster outperforms original
- pre-Omicron infections don’t compromise immunity against Omicron
- Over 300 Omicron sublineages globally. BA.5 dominant but BQ.1 displacing it
- Evusheld available privately - at a price
covidactuaries.org/2022/10/28/fri…
Also featured:
- NHS waiting list nears 7.5 million
- Analysis of Long COVID in Scotland and 22 countries
- latest ONS infections update
- hospital admissions currently falling
- Excess mortality remains high

covidactuaries.org/2022/10/28/fri…
And finally:
- New Zealand emissions tax picks up an unusual nickname with protests from farmers

Thanks to @AdeleGroyer @john_actuary @DanRyanCoios and @longevitymatt for our 72nd #FridayReport

We trust this remains a useful and interesting weekend read.
covidactuaries.org/2022/10/28/fri…

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More from @COVID19actuary

COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
Oct 27
Hospital admissions with COVID have fallen significantly over the last week. The 7-day average for England is down 16%.

Our R estimate is around 0.9.

All regions have seen falls. SW is down by 27%; NW is down by 9%. Others are in between.

Bed occupancy also fell, down 12%. ImageImageImageImage
Admissions from hospital acquired infections appear to be falling more rapidly than admissions from the community. This perhaps indicates a restoration of more control measures within hospitals.

The proportion of patients with COVID where it is the primary diagnosis has remained fairly consistent at 36%.

This shows that the change has been similar between beds occupied by patients where COVID is the primary diagnosis and those where it isn’t. Image
Read 4 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
Oct 21
In the first six months of 2022, deaths in Australia were 13% higher than predicted. There were 11,200 excess deaths.

There were 5,600 COVID deaths, representing just over half the excess.

covidactuaries.org/2022/10/21/exc…
The significant excess deaths in Australia in 2022 are in contrast to earlier stages of the pandemic.

Deaths in 2020 were 3% lower than expected, due to restrictions put in place to limit the spread of COVID-19.

Deaths in 2021 were 2% higher than expected. Image
It isn’t possible to identify from death counts alone what is causing recent non-COVID excess mortality in Australia. We discuss possible explanations, suggesting that post-COVID sequelae and interactions with other causes of death are likely to be the most significant factor.
Read 7 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
Oct 20
Hospital admissions with COVID have fallen slightly over the last week. The 7-day average for England is down 5%.

Our R estimate is around 1.0.

Most regions are also fairly flat. The East is down 12%; SW is up by 8%. Others are in between.

Bed occupancy also flat, down 2%.
Admissions from hospital acquired infections appear to be falling more rapidly than admissions from the community. This perhaps indicates a restoration of more control measures within hospitals.
The proportion of patients with COVID where it is the primary diagnosis has remained fairly consistent at 36%.

This shows that the change has been similar between beds occupied by patients where COVID is the primary diagnosis and those where it isn’t.
Read 4 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
Sep 29
Hospital admissions with COVID have risen sharply!

7-day average for England up 48%.

Implied R estimate above 1.2. The highest we’ve seen in 2022.

Regionally, the biggest increases are in SE (up 64%) and Mids (up 58%) but big increases everywhere.

Bed occupancy is up by 37%.
Much of the increase seems to be people acquiring COVID while in hospital. Likely hospital acquired cases have doubled in a week.

This may be a consequence of routine testing on admission being reduced as this allows COVID to spread more freely in hospitals.
The increase is not driven by “incidental admissions”.

The number of beds occupied by patients where COVID is the Primary Diagnosis (PD) is up by 46%.

So the proportion of patients with COVID where it is the PD has risen to 39%. It is over 50% in the SE and SW.
Read 4 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
Sep 22
A significant increase in hospital admissions with COVID! 7-day average for England is up 17% with a big jump on Monday. Implied R estimate clearly above 1.0.

Regionally, the biggest increases are in SW (up 39%), East (up 33%) and NE&Yorks (up 30%).

Bed occupancy is up by 14%. ImageImageImageImage
It’s a similar story when we look only at patients where COVID is the primary diagnosis (PD). Across England the increase in PD beds is 9%. The proportion where COVID is the PD has increased slightly to 36%. ImageImage
As @AdeleGroyer has noted, it looks like much of the increase may be due to people acquiring COVID while in hospital. This may be a consequence of routine testing on admission being reduced as this allows COVID to spread more freely in hospitals.
Read 4 tweets
COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group Profile picture
Sep 21
The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has published its weekly Mortality Monitor covering deaths to 9 September.

There were 7% more deaths this week than if death rates were the same as 2019, CMI's comparator.
1/3 Image
CMI calculates 137,000 excess deaths in the UK since the start of the pandemic. The total has increased by 16.600 in 2022.

Cumulative mortality rates YTD are 2.5% of a full year’s mortality worse than 2019. 2/3 Image
Calculated excess deaths (675) were 80% higher than deaths mentioning COVID on the death certificate (365), reverting to the more usual position we've seen recently after last week's position with no calculated "non-COVID" excess.

3/4
Full report here:
actuaries.org.uk/system/files/f… Image
Read 4 tweets

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