Thread by @RArarssa

CEASEFIRE???
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The negotiation with #AbiyAhmed's regime is a futile exercise, a total waste of time. 1/n

Although they haven't formally stated what they want from the negotiation,it is obvious from what their officials, their supporters,& soc media activists repeatedly say,that what they want is for TPLF surrender& disarm its army.Sbdy should wake them up from their delusion. 2/n

What the mediators expect is a ceasefire. But ceasfire can happen only if Abiy agrees to stop the war (i.e., if he can actually convince Isayyas to do so). Obviously, Abiy can't and won't. 3/n

Because Abiy can't (and won't), then what the International Community ought to do is to impose a robust regime of sanctions on Eritrea and Ethiopia immediately.

On the other hand, for TDF to agree to any ceasefire:

a) the siege must be lifted;
4/n

b) humanitarian access should reach all corners of Tigray;

c) Eritrean forces must leave Tigray (and Ethiopia in its entirety);

d)All Ethiopian and Amhara forces should withdraw from areas occupied since November 2020. For a return to status quo ante is a must.
5/n

This is the minimum threshold.
As things stand now, all indications are that Abiy & co are not interested in this as their long-standing desire is to kill, destroy, starve, and terrorise the population into submission thereby forcing the TDF to surrender. 6/n

And we all know that Tigray won't submit and TDF won't surrender. Not now! Not in a thousand years!

So, what do we expect from the negotiation? Nothing. Unfortunately.
7/n

As long as the int'l cmnity doesn't summon the courage to see the war for the genocidal war that it is& until it commits itself to take measures commensurate to the calamity,z only place to expect solution to emerge from is z armed resistance by TDF(&other forces such as OLA).8/8