Thread by @KleineBrockhoff

Important speech by President #Steinmeier about Putin’s war. He prepares Germans for hard times and an age of confrontation. But the speech is as remarkable for what it mentions as for what it omits. The good, the bad and the ugly - a 13 piece🪵here:
bundespraesident.de/SharedDocs/Dow…

2/ Steinmeier does what🇩🇪 leading politicians (exception: Robert Habeck) have avoided doing so far: saying out loud that the tailwinds which🇩🇪has felt since 1990 have been replaced by headwinds. The times of the peace dividend are over. Every citizen will feel it.

3/ This speech was necessary. It prepares citizens for the moment when economic hardship can no longer be compensated by the government. That moment will come soon.

4/ Steinmeier does not mince words about Putin’s “imperial obsession”. Germans needed to hear from their head of state that the world is in "a phase of confrontation” – and that🇩🇪cannot wean itself out of it. His support for the investment program for the Armed Forces is strong.

5/ The President is unequivocal in his support for Ukraine. He directly addresses and rejects those Germans who claim the government is not doing enough to help negotiate a settlement. Steinmeier rejects any settlement that legalizes a landgrab.

6/ What could possibly be wrong with such a strong performance? First, timing. What took Steinmeier so long? Had he followed up on Scholz’ “Zeitenwende” speech to provide context, he would have made a mark. 8 months later, the speech represents caution rather than strength.

7/ Second, lack of urgency. Being late itself, the speech conveys no sense of immediacy of the impending change. No call to speed things up.🇩🇪incrementalism drives foreigners nuts anyway, this speech will be no exception: come back in a decade, and you might see the change.

8/ Third, little agenda for change. That🇩🇪 needs a new economic model, is – in Steinmeier’s thinking – limited to changes that climate change imposes. No agenda for innovation, nothing on exports, nothing on energy intensive industries. Instead: redistribution and social justice

9/ Fourth, lack of historical awareness. The speech portrays a glorious time of peace and cooperation that was abruptly ended with Putin’s aggression. No mention that the new age was long in coming and🇩🇪chose to ignore it for years and against all warnings by its allies.

10/ Fifth, no self-critique. Steinmeier acknowledges his own role in leading into a foreign policy mega-crash only indirectly. And only in the form of disappointed hopes, not errant assessments. No demand for larger reassessments and investigations into spying and corruption.

11/ Sixth, sugar-coating. No mention of the loss of trust in🇩🇪 by its most important allies, not just because of its past Russia-policy but because of its tepid and contradictory response since. How to become the Europ. leader that Steinmeier wants🇩🇪 to be if it lacks followers?

12/ Seventh, incoherence on 🇨🇳. He remarks on 🇨🇳 dark role in the “phase of confrontation”. But no mention of systemic competition. No analysis what the 🇨🇳🇷🇺partnership means for democracies. Instead, a warning against a new block confrontation. What is it, Mr. President?

13/ In sum, Steinmeier’s speech represents perfectly where 🇩🇪 stands: first steps to adapt to the new world have been taken, belatedly and cautiously, but a larger concept of the global change and what it will mean for 🇩🇪 is still missing.

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