RIA Novosti's Alexander Kharchenko says that Central Military District Commander Colonel General Lapin was relieved. He praises the performance of Central District units, which suggests that he disagrees with the decision (other mil bloggers will as well). t.me/vysokygovorit/…
Lapin has come under fire recently from Kadyrov and Prigozhin who blamed him for the loss of Lyman and said he was far from the front lines. In response, several military bloggers/correspondents have come to his defense. His relief will likely lead to some animosity. 2/
The Grey Zone channel suggests that his possible relief was due poorly employing mobilized units in his sector. Most of the anecdotes of poorly led mobilized units getting thrown into combat too soon were from his sector of the front. 3/ t.me/grey_zone/15561
Thread from yesterday regarding the most recent criticism leveled at Lapin by Kadyrov and Prigozhin and support from a variety of telegram channels. 4/
Sergei Surovikin was recently made the overall commander of Russian forces in Ukraine (both Kadyrov and Prigozhin have praised his appointment). Before this, he and Lapin were the two senior group commanders over the summer, and Surovikin was in support of Lapin in June-July. 5/
As of this month, Lapin has been under Surovikin's command. He was previously chief of staff to Surovikin while he served as the Eastern Military District CO and commander of Russian forces in Syria. With Lapin gone, Surovikin is the clear commander without competition. 6/
Another Russian outlet claims that Lapin hasn't been relieved but flew back to Yekaterinburg yesterday. Another explanation is that Lapin is still district commander but was removed from his troop command position in Ukraine. 8/ ura.news/news/1052599093
Another Russian source claims that he was replaced (possibly temporarily) by Lieutenant General Andrey Mordvichev, the previous commander of the 8th Combined Arms Army. 9/ vologda-poisk.ru/news/na-zlobu-…
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Ukraine released a video from today’s attack on Sevastopol. It shows a naval drone targeting the Black Sea Fleet’s Admiral Makarov Project 11356 frigate, which Russian sources said was damaged (it replaced the Moskva as the Black Sea Fleet’s flagship). t.me/milinfolive/92…twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The Governor of Russian-occupied Sevastopol claimed that Russian forces repelled a UAV attack starting this morning, which included an unmanned naval system. t.me/breakingmash/3… t.me/razvozhaev/1320
In response to Kadyrov's criticisms of Lapin, Rybar notes that, since March, units under Lapin's command were responsible for some of the few successful advances. He also notes that the Central Military District had older equipment than other districts. t.me/rybar/40667
They note that units under his command sustained losses in Chernihiv and the failed river crossing near Bilohorivka, but also that his performance was not worse than the other district commanders. 2/
As long as Kyiv continues to receive enough ammunition, Russia will not achieve serious gains on the battlefield. Consequently, Russia's strategy is focused on deterring further aid from the US/NATO. This letter will likely reinforce Moscow's view that it has the right strategy.
A ceasefire is not in Ukraine's interests. It would give Russia time to mobilize and train new units, procure UAVs and missiles from Iran, and prepare for another offensive. Russian officials are not signaling that they are ready to end this war.
The fastest way to end this war is to strengthen Ukraine's military capabilities to the point where it is clear Russia cannot make further gains and can't hold the terrain it currently occupies. Otherwise, this war will likely be protracted and end as a result of exhaustion.
A Russian Su-34 bomber crashed next to an apartment building in Yeysk, which was engulfed in flames. The pilots ejected just before the crash, which you can see in the photo, and reportedly survived. t.me/bazabazon/13951