NC EV: 1,063,378 total votes cast, including 975,131 in person votes. Avg in person/day is 108k. At this rate, we're looking at 1.9M-2M early votes, which is pretty close to '18: 2.03M.
Dems lead the EV 39.1% - 31.3% (+7.8%), which is better than '20 (+5.6%) but worse than '18 (+12.9%). That said, there were no major statewide races on the '18 ballot, so '20 is probably the better guide, and that suggests incremental Dem improvement so far.
18.3% of the EV is Black. In '20 it was 19.4%. That said, the total EV is much lower than '20, so I view this is as a negligible difference b/c there is a large pool of Black voters to add via GOTV for EV or E-Day to match '20.
I think the bigger issue is that we're looking at a turnout that might be at best to '18 levels and may actually be lower. In '20, EV was 82% of the total vote. In '18 it was 54%. We're probably looking at the EV being somewhere btwn 50%-60% of the total this yr.
That suggests the total vote will be 3.3M to 4M max. In '18, the total vote was 3.75M. For the total to get to 4M, the EV would have to be only 50% of the total or less, (i.e., lower than '18/'20). That seems unlikely to me.
Therefore, I think the total vote may not exceed '18 and might fall short of it. That gives an opportunity for each side to drive up turnout from their strongest supporters and win the election. E-Day will determine the winner, not EV.
Typically, that would favor the GOP. However, Ds also have a lot of voters to bring on e-day, particularly younger voters & Black voters. This could either be a reaffirmation of the GOP hold on WWC voters, or a watershed moment for NC Dems on a formula to win Federal races.
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