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Andrew Perpetua

Oct 30, 2022 • 22 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X

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An update for October 29th. #ukrdailyupdate

If you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com

Black Sea Fleet = 💥💥💥, Russia = 😭😭😭

This morning, Ukraine attacked the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol with suicide drones. Perhaps both aerial and maritime drones, but certainly the naval variety.

These maritime drones are more or less robot spy canoes filled with high explosives.

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1586347071950721024?s=20&t=8w9vJI0drAA8p64M42ZdxQ

The exact extent of the damage inflicted is unknown, but credible reports claim:
The Admiral Makarov sustained multiple drone hits that damaged both superstructures, the radar, the fire control, and communication systems. It could take weeks or months to repair the ship.

A transport ship was damaged and flooded.

A boat of unknown type sank.

The minesweeper “Ivan Golubets” was damaged and caught fire for many hours.

A large landing ship was damaged.

The attack destroyed fuel storage and shore buildings.

Russia took a moment between mercilessly firing missiles into children’s hospitals to claim this attack on the Sevastopol naval base was a “terrorist attack.”

But, of course, they also blame the British.

There is significant fighting along the front between Kreminna and Svatove. Especially near Kuzemivka (1) and Chervonopopivka (3).

Today Russia decided to attack Myasezharivka (2), but Ukrainian defenders repelled the attack.

I updated my map near Chervonopopivka to show the advance of the Ukrainian forces. They have dug in around 2km west of the town and 4km west of the highway. The Russian defensive line is about halfway between the Ukrainians and the p66.

The fighting between Kuzemivka and Chervonopopivka is heavy, the force concentrations are relatively dense, and the casualty rates are high for both sides.

In the Siversk area, Russia again attacked Bilohorivka. They are heavily shelling this town and repeatedly assaulting it. Russia is very upset that Ukraine is this close to Lysychansk, and they desperately want to retake this town.

Almost all civilians evacuated Bilohorivka at this point, and the villages to the west, particularly Serebryanka, are relatively safe for civilians (although civilians shouldn’t be here at all).

The fighting in the Bakhmut area is brutal, with many casualties.

As usual, North of Bakhmut, Russia attacked Yakovlivka, Soledar, and Bakhmutske without notable changes.

South of Bakhmut, Russia attacked the southeast of Bakhmut, Ivanhrad and Opytne, Kurdyumivka, and Mayorsk.

The Ukrainian general staff claims they “destroyed” 300 men and wounded 60 more near Mayorsk (A), who were preparing to assault Ukrainian positions. Whether this is true or not, I don’t know.

In the Donetsk area, Russia attacked Kamyanka, Opytne, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, and Marinka.

I am unaware of progress since yesterday in Opytne and Vodyane. Russia made no progress in Pervomaiske and may have moved slightly in Nevelske. The attacks in Krasnohorivka and Marinka are to keep Ukraine in place, not genuine attempts to capture ground.

South of Donetsk, Russia launched a powerful attack on Pavlivka (4). They have reportedly entered Pavlivka, but I do not know the full extent of their success in the city. However, my sources say the situation is difficult, and Russia may control all of Pavlivka.

Russia is supporting this attack with aviation, but more interesting to me are the large salvos of S-300. Russia is firing these missiles from Mariupol, roughly in the areas marked B and C on the map.

Sticking to the Mariupol area, a large explosion was reported in Berdyansk today. I didn’t see an explanation for this. Perhaps they were detonating recovered sea mines. I marked it on the map due to the events in Sevastopol.

South of Hulyaipole, Ukraine attacked Konstanynivka and Marfopil. These are minor attacks, probing for weaknesses in the Russian defenses.

West of Orikhiv, Ukraine attacked Pyatykhatky. Again, likely a minor attack, probing for weaknesses.

Today, Ukraine attacked all major Russian river crossings in the Kherson area, striking the Khakovka dam, the Darivka pontoon area, and the Antonovskiy Bridge area.

Finally, Ukraine attacked Bruskynske today (5). Russia repelled this attack with aviation and artillery fire.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

Andrew Perpetua

@AndrewPerpetua

Nov 23

The news coming from the Velyka Novosilka area is very bad. There is no way to sugar coat it, the area has reached crisis and needs immediate intervention.

In short, Velyka Novosilka is the anchor of the southern defensive line. The line that runs from the Dnipro river to the east towards Donetsk. The Zaporizhzhia line. This west to east defensive line effectively ends in Velyka Novosilka. (note my map hasn't updated for the changes today)

Velyka Novosilka itself should have very good defenses, but the defenses are meant to stop attacks from the south, not the north and east.

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Andrew Perpetua

@AndrewPerpetua

Nov 22

Russia paying soldiers lump sums is not a method to get people to join the military, paying them is a way to make people not care about how many soldiers die.

Everyone knows soldiers are dying in huge numbers. But the money makes people think it is a gamble, not a tragedy. Nobody cares about a guy who signed up for quick money and died. They see it as quick easy money coming with huge risks and shrug. It is their own fault for joining.

It is simultaneously a lot of money and very little money. It is so much money that if you spent it wisely, you'd be set for life. But it is so little money most people will spend it all in a few weeks.

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Andrew Perpetua

@AndrewPerpetua

Nov 10

I just posted a map update, and many parts of the update have been written about by others already. But one interesting tidbit is the advance of Ukraine in Bilohorivka.

Here you see a Russian FPV Drone strike hitting a Ukrainian trench. You see that the trench crosses a road and has a hook shape. The trench is of relatively new construction, and cannot be seen on google map, nor other public high resolution images of the area. However, on google earth you can see the relative shape of the terrain (the Z axis is magnified 300% to exaggerate terrain features to make them easier to see. You can see that the trench runs along the crest of a hill. You can see the road it crosses, which is slightly lower than the ridge of the hill, on the reverse slope.

map.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=48.939375…

On sentinel, which is 10 meter resolution (a very low resolution image with few details), you can see the hook shape of this trench. This image is from October 24th, 2024, which is about 2 weeks ago.

Read 12 tweets

Andrew Perpetua

@AndrewPerpetua

Oct 28

The war in Ukraine took a turn in June of 2023 when Ukraine launched a counter-offensive south in an attempt to break through toward Tokmak. This decision has influenced every event that has followed, leading to disastrous consequences for Ukraine. I will not go into depth about the offensive south, but in short, Ukraine burned through its ammo stockpile and 12 of its best brigades. The offensive badly weakened these brigades and eliminated Ukraine's already limited flexibility regarding rotating troops and responding to threats.

Immediately upon the conclusion of this offensive, Russia launched a large offensive on Avdiivka and Novomykhailivka. Avdiivka is a small suburb northwest of Donetsk city, and Novomykhailivka is a small village south of Donetsk. Russia's ultimate goal was to break through to the city of Kurakhove, which is a small city west of Donetsk and is the westernmost significant defensive position constructed by Ukraine on the Donetsk front. In essence, Russia's goal was to break through the Donetsk defensive line and force Ukraine to defend weakly defended territory.

Ukraine's Donetsk defensive line was well-constructed and relatively strong. As such, it required fewer soldiers to successfully defend and more soldiers to successfully assault. This created a defensive advantage for Ukraine, which helped ease its relative manpower limitations compared to Russia. Once Ukraine is removed from these strong defensive lines, it requires more men to defend the same amount of area and also fewer men to successfully assault, which gives Russia the advantage due to its superior manpower.

To succeed, Russia would have to create a large manpower advantage in a localized area to break through the hardened defensive lines. Once broken, Russia could then splinter its manpower into many smaller attacks and attack many places simultaneously.

I could review the timeline and list the settlements attacked, and my initial draft of this post included this information. But instead, I will cut to the chase. After capturing Aviivka, Russia simultaneously attacked many locations along the entire eastern front. At first, Ukraine could withstand the attacks, but with each lost position, Ukraine became increasingly weaker. Finally, the fall of Ocheretyne, the next railway stop northwest of Avdiivka, fell. This loss opened the floodgates that allowed Russia to flow across the Donbas and capture many settlements in a short time.

Ukraine has now reached a point where it has insufficient manpower to mount a proper defense. Even after shortening the length of its defensive line to increase the density of its troops, it still lacks the strength to stop the Russian advance.

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Andrew Perpetua

@AndrewPerpetua

Oct 27

Russians have effectively broken through the line of defense that was behind Vuhledar by getting into the middle of Bohoyavlenka. This defense line I was hoping could last at least 2-3 months, but was lost in 1. Largely due to extremely heavy bombing and horribly insufficient preparation by ukriane.

In essence, Ukraine spent 2 years defending their forward positions to buy time, and used that time doing nothing to prepare the next line of defense.

There really is no excuse Ukraine has for this failure. You have to point the finger at Zelensky. He is personally responsible for this. It was his job to defend Ukraine. You cannot blame "western partners" for failing to make the most basic defenses in your most critical areas.

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Andrew Perpetua

@AndrewPerpetua

Oct 22

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1674778224398864392

Yesterday a bunch of Russian trolls were trying to tell me Russia doesn’t strike schools, so here is an example of such a thing. It is the most memorable strike to me, the videos of wounded educators being pulled out of the destroyed school is etched into my memory.