Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Oct 30, 2022 22 tweets 8 min read Read on X
An update for October 29th. #ukrdailyupdate

If you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com

Black Sea Fleet = 💥💥💥, Russia = 😭😭😭
This morning, Ukraine attacked the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol with suicide drones. Perhaps both aerial and maritime drones, but certainly the naval variety.
These maritime drones are more or less robot spy canoes filled with high explosives.
The exact extent of the damage inflicted is unknown, but credible reports claim:
The Admiral Makarov sustained multiple drone hits that damaged both superstructures, the radar, the fire control, and communication systems. It could take weeks or months to repair the ship.
A transport ship was damaged and flooded.

A boat of unknown type sank.

The minesweeper “Ivan Golubets” was damaged and caught fire for many hours.

A large landing ship was damaged.

The attack destroyed fuel storage and shore buildings.
Russia took a moment between mercilessly firing missiles into children’s hospitals to claim this attack on the Sevastopol naval base was a “terrorist attack.”

But, of course, they also blame the British.
There is significant fighting along the front between Kreminna and Svatove. Especially near Kuzemivka (1) and Chervonopopivka (3).

Today Russia decided to attack Myasezharivka (2), but Ukrainian defenders repelled the attack.
I updated my map near Chervonopopivka to show the advance of the Ukrainian forces. They have dug in around 2km west of the town and 4km west of the highway. The Russian defensive line is about halfway between the Ukrainians and the p66.
The fighting between Kuzemivka and Chervonopopivka is heavy, the force concentrations are relatively dense, and the casualty rates are high for both sides.
In the Siversk area, Russia again attacked Bilohorivka. They are heavily shelling this town and repeatedly assaulting it. Russia is very upset that Ukraine is this close to Lysychansk, and they desperately want to retake this town.
Almost all civilians evacuated Bilohorivka at this point, and the villages to the west, particularly Serebryanka, are relatively safe for civilians (although civilians shouldn’t be here at all).
The fighting in the Bakhmut area is brutal, with many casualties.

As usual, North of Bakhmut, Russia attacked Yakovlivka, Soledar, and Bakhmutske without notable changes.

South of Bakhmut, Russia attacked the southeast of Bakhmut, Ivanhrad and Opytne, Kurdyumivka, and Mayorsk.
The Ukrainian general staff claims they “destroyed” 300 men and wounded 60 more near Mayorsk (A), who were preparing to assault Ukrainian positions. Whether this is true or not, I don’t know.
In the Donetsk area, Russia attacked Kamyanka, Opytne, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, and Marinka.
I am unaware of progress since yesterday in Opytne and Vodyane. Russia made no progress in Pervomaiske and may have moved slightly in Nevelske. The attacks in Krasnohorivka and Marinka are to keep Ukraine in place, not genuine attempts to capture ground.
South of Donetsk, Russia launched a powerful attack on Pavlivka (4). They have reportedly entered Pavlivka, but I do not know the full extent of their success in the city. However, my sources say the situation is difficult, and Russia may control all of Pavlivka.
Russia is supporting this attack with aviation, but more interesting to me are the large salvos of S-300. Russia is firing these missiles from Mariupol, roughly in the areas marked B and C on the map.
Sticking to the Mariupol area, a large explosion was reported in Berdyansk today. I didn’t see an explanation for this. Perhaps they were detonating recovered sea mines. I marked it on the map due to the events in Sevastopol.
South of Hulyaipole, Ukraine attacked Konstanynivka and Marfopil. These are minor attacks, probing for weaknesses in the Russian defenses.
West of Orikhiv, Ukraine attacked Pyatykhatky. Again, likely a minor attack, probing for weaknesses.
Today, Ukraine attacked all major Russian river crossings in the Kherson area, striking the Khakovka dam, the Darivka pontoon area, and the Antonovskiy Bridge area.
Finally, Ukraine attacked Bruskynske today (5). Russia repelled this attack with aviation and artillery fire.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

Jul 15
It is insane to me that prop planes were never supplied to Ukraine. People have been so focused on the wrong assets. It has been clear since day 1 that prop planes would be one of the most significant military upgrades Ukraine could get, and if they were provided on Day 1 this war could be very different today. They could have been hunting and destroying recon drones this entire time, denying Russia the ability to plan their missile raids and correct their artillery fire and airstrikes. This would have crippled the Russian military. Instead, we put all of our money into defense, which could not be delivered in the time frames or in the quantities to actually defend ukraine. This failure to provide prop planes is completely infuriating to me.
And, even worse, the people who failed to understand how important the prop planes were back then are still in charge of making decisions today. That alone should worry everyone.
These people just don't understand how this war was going to be fought, is currently fought, or how it will be fought in the future. And yet, somehow, they make decisions on which gear should be invested in.
Read 5 tweets
Jul 12
It is honestly interesting seeing multiple prominent Russian milbloggers talking about the hopelessness of a Russian victory. I think they are starting to realize they goofed.
Sentiments along the lines of “no matter how many resources we push in, the front line barely moves”. “ukrainian and european production is growing faster than ours”. “next year ukraine will have more resources than us”
Tack on the comments about how 152mm artillery is a dead end technology due to lack of investment and development from the 80s onwards. Even their latest models, which Russia cannot even produce due to lack of industrial power, is dramatically inferior to even cheap 155mm pieces
Read 4 tweets
Jul 11
Compare what Ukraine does to help and rebuild after liberating from Russian occupation to what Russia does once they enter and you can see which country is on the right side of history.

“We opened a Resilience Center in Balakliya.

This step is part of the All-Ukrainian Mental Health Program "Are You Okay?", an initiative of Olena Zelenska.

The project was implemented jointly with the Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine and the Coordination Center for Mental Health of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, with the support of the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF).

Resilience Centers provide psychosocial support, including group and individual counseling, parenting skills training, social support, crisis intervention, conflict resolution, and support for veterans.

Additionally, the centers offer day care services for children with disabilities, tailored to the needs of each community.

It is also a space for community members to socialize and organize joint events, initiatives and training sessions.

The centers were launched with the financial support of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ).”
Ukraine enters and begins to clear mines, restore electric power and water, repair heating systems, restore hospitals, rebuild schools.

Russia builds filtration camps, steals local land and businesses from the owners, turns schools into barracks, does book burnings, and begins logging the forests and stealing natural resources.
Read 4 tweets
May 31
This is the 243 day of the Russian offensive, in this time they have almost 2900 armored vehicles + artillery destroyed plus 1100 more abandoned. Combined is just under 4000. This is actually an undercount as well, because we don't have enough money to buy all the high res sat images.
In the same time period, Ukraine has lost fewer than 900.
We are absolutely double counting vehicles. Its not intentional, its just inevitable. No matter how much we work to avoid it, it happens. But the vehicles we miss almost certainly dwarf the number of double counts. Like, we bought a high res image of an area where we learned we counted the same vehicle 4 times, but there were also like 40+ vehicles nobody anywhere knew were lost. And even still several dozen of those have never been spotted on any photo or video we can find.
Read 4 tweets
May 26
I have an idea. Every time someone uses the total number of Russian mortar + 122 + 152 ammo production to 155mm production, they have to donate 1/4 of their salary to the Czech ammo purchase. Does that seem fair?
Compare 152 to 155, 122 to 105 and mortars to mortars or stfu and don't say anything at all.
Also, comparing the price of a mortar shell to a 155mm shell: are you stupid?
Read 5 tweets
May 23
Remember that time Romanov posted a video where he shot a howitzer, and then cut to a shell hitting a house? And how the shell that hit that house killed a civilian? Now, I cannot tell you Romanov fired that exact shell, but he wanted you to think he did.

Anywho, unrelatedly, I am sure:
when you are a "journalist" Image
Doing journalism Image
Read 5 tweets

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