Thread by @fwildecricket

🇮🇳-🇿🇦 tactical thread. This is a bigger game for South Africa than India. If India win they are all but guaranteed top spot (88%) & SFs (93%) but are 61% even if they lose. A SA win makes them favourites for the SF (85%) & top (55%) but a loss sees them slide to 35%. #T20WorldCup

The short straight and large square boundaries in Perth will play a big role in this game. It may make spin harder to get through & will place an emphasis on quicks & spinners bowling into the pitch & not over-pitching. Batters will hit straight & run hard square. #T20WorldCup

Conditions in Perth, India RH-heavy batting order & Shamsi’s poor H2H records v India may see SA bring Ngidi back into the side for this game & Shamsi move out. Maharaj’s SLA spin matches up nicely with India’s RHs. #T20WorldCup

India are likely to remain unchanged. They could leave Axar out for Chahal or an extra quick because Axar’s SLA might be hard to get through v SA’s LHs but this will rob India of their only middle order LH to counter Maharaj. Pant for KL could also help this area. #T20WorldCup

SA’s batting order is largely excellent but is shallow & lacks floaters to delay entry points. Early wickets are therefore very valuable & India’s front-loaded bowling, with three new ball bowlers, makes the PP crucial. Bavuma is clearly a huge achilles heel for SA. #T20WorldCup

Ashwin has a big role to play in this game: SA have four LHs in their top seven & appear willing to pair QDK & Rossouw when Bavuma gets out. Reverse sweeps could come into the game as a means to counter away spin but they are a risky shot on a bouncy Perth track. #T20WorldCup

India will be reluctant to bowl Axar to SA’s LHs (he only bowled one over when the LHs batted deep in Indore) so are likely to utilise plenty of Hardik in this game. Axar can be a wicket-taking option against LHs though & matches up well with the RHs. #T20WorldCup

Parnell is SA’s specialist new ball option: he is the most likely bowler to find swing & his battle with Rahul & Rohit is important given how much India rely on solid opening starts. Rabada has dominant H2Hs v Rohit (4 wickets at 19 RPW & Kohli 4 wickets at 10 RPW). #T20WorldCup

Maharaj matches up really well with India's RHs but conditions in Perth will challenge him & place importance on his lengths not being too full. Hardik & Kohli took down Nawaz down at the MCG. Surya will also be critical in this area. #T20WorldCup

The high pace & hard lengths of Rabada & Nortje will be valuable against Hardik in particular. Teams like to hold spin back for DK but Maharaj’s value in the early stages of the game may not make this possible. #T20WorldCup

Hooda for Axar has Dravid's fingerprints all over it because it a) plays to bowling match-ups by taking Axar out v a LH-heavy team & b) further emboldens India's attacking batting. The downside is it robs India a middle order LH to access short sides/attack < spin. #T20WorldCup

India's top three have had issues v LA pace. Notably, Rohit's numbers suggest that it's the angle more than swing that causes him trouble: Rohit averages just 10 in the Powerplay against balls that hold their line & don't swing. #T20WorldCup

Another match, another game with excellent Powerplay bowling. The average swing & seam in the first six overs in this tournament has been higher than any World Cup since 2010. The average runs per wicket in the phase of 21 is the lowest on record in a T20 World Cup. #T20WorldCup

Getting one of Rohit or Kohli out when pulling is rare, getting them both in the same game is unheard of & is a product of Ngidi's excellence & height & the pitch & dimensions: short balls are averaging 15 runs per wicket in Perth in this tournament. #T20WorldCup

South Africa have been very aggressive with their bowler usage here. The first nine overs have all been from the quicks with their primary defensive option (Maharaj) held back. Their aggression has been rewarded with four wickets. #T20WorldCup

Maharaj is finally introduced in the tenth over. He may have to bowl four of the last ten overs for South Africa to complete their allocation. Markram is SA's sixth bowler but bowling him to two RHs would be a risk; he might be able to squeeze through one. #T20WorldCup

The PitchViz par score for this game is 154 - the lowest of any match in Perth in this tournament. The bounce is always big in Perth but in this game the movement found by the quicks is also particularly notable. It doesn't seem like an easy deck to bat on. #T20WorldCup

Just five singles from Markram's over. South Africa will be delighted with that. Maharaj now only needs to bowl three overs. Rushing through a negative match-up like that shows the value of frontloading; with India five down, taking Markram on is more dangerous. #T20WorldCup

This is a stunning innings from Surya. He arrived with India 26 for 2 and they were 49 for 5 not long after. Not only has he held the innings together but he's done so while scoring at nearly 10 runs per over. Ridiculously good T20 batting. #T20WorldCup

Haha, someone check if this man is human?! Surya has just cut a ball off the top of middle through third man for four & then next ball paddle swept a four over fine leg. The first ball was actually straighter than the second one; hit to opposing sides of the ground. #T20WorldCup

South Africa's lengths today have been so disciplined. The dimensions here encourage going into the pitch and that's exactly what they've done. Only 13% of their balls have been fuller than 5m - the lowest percentage for any team in any 20 over game this tournament. #T20WorldCup

Two huge early blows from Arshdeep. They are massive wickets in their own right but also help trigger role displacement, as we explored before the tournament. #T20WorldCup

The contrast between pace attacks in this game is really nice. South Africa rely on bounce whereas India rely on lateral movement. In the Powerplay India have found 1.65° of swing - three times as much as SA's 0.55°. India have bowled around 25cm fuller as well. #T20WorldCup

India, like South Africa did, are front-loading their pace bowlers, trying to break the game early. This is a really noticeable trend at the moment with England & NZ adopting similar tactics of late & is contributing to ball fighting back against bat. #T20WorldCup

The difference in run rate in Perth since 2018 in the second ten overs compared to the first ten of 1.5 is the largest of any ground in this World Cup. This suggests conditions become significantly more batting friendly as the game goes on & ball gets older & softer. #T20WorldCup

That six from Miller off Ashwin shows the challenge of bowling spin at this venue. That was Ashwin's 13th ball of the day and the first he had bowled that was fuller than 5 metres (4.33m) from the stumps. Once you get that full, hitting straight becomes a lot easier. #T20WorldCup

Exactly a week ago (it feels like a lot longer), Nawaz bowled the 20th over of the India-Pakistan game in Melbourne. We may have a similar situation again here with Ashwin needing to bowl one more & it may be held back right to the end. #T20WorldCup

Rohit takes the plunge early on Ashwin - perhaps looking to buy a wicket - and Miller has broken the game in two balls. Ashwin's just lost his control of length a bit as his spell has gone on & Miller has climbed into it every time. Good game awareness. #T20WorldCup

Great game of cricket & a statement performance from South Africa who are now very well placed to qualify from this group. They are brilliantly suited to Australian conditions & that was on full display today - exploiting & becalming a spicy surface in Perth. #T20WorldCup

Ashwin bowled similar lengths to SA's spinners but cost 10 more runs from his four overs. SA's spinners were helped by having India five down as opposed to three but SA were also better at punishing over-pitched balls (scoring 14 off 3 compared to 2 off 2 for Ind). #T20WorldCup