🇮🇳-🇿🇦 tactical thread. This is a bigger game for South Africa than India. If India win they are all but guaranteed top spot (88%) & SFs (93%) but are 61% even if they lose. A SA win makes them favourites for the SF (85%) & top (55%) but a loss sees them slide to 35%. #T20WorldCup The short straight and large square boundaries in Perth will play a big role in this game. It may make spin harder to get through & will place an emphasis on quicks & spinners bowling into the pitch & not over-pitching. Batters will hit straight & run hard square. #T20WorldCup

🇦🇺-🇱🇰 tactical thread. Australia’s huge loss v New Zealand has their Semi Final hopes hanging by a thread. If they lose to Sri Lanka today we give them just a 5% chance of progressing. If they win they move from 25% to 37%. Sri Lanka move from 41% to 63% with a win. #T20WorldCup Australia's bowling & the venue (Perth is fast & bouncy) matches up nicely against Sri Lanka's batting which can struggle v pace & bounce. However, Theekshana & Hasaranga match-up very nicely with Australia who struggle v spin, although conditions may neuter them. #T20WorldCup

Outstanding over of batting from Hardik & Virat - both targetting the shorter straight boundary. 20 runs off the over & a 10% swing towards India, who are up to 22% to win now. #T20WorldCup Pakistan are holding the Nawaz over right back until the last, just as they did in the Asia Cup game a few weeks ago. Full credit to India for the way they took him on - the numbers weren't in their favour but finger spin has travelled today. #T20WorldCup

🇮🇳-🇵🇰 tactical thread. As with Aus-NZ yesterday this is a huge game that carries a massive qualification swing with it. If Pakistan win their SF probability goes from 39% to 59%; if India win their SF probability goes from 55% to 71%. #T20WorldCup India v Pakistan has traditionally pitted India’s batting strength v Pakistan’s bowling might: this is as true today as it ever has been. Under Dravid India have become a more aggressive batting unit while Pakistan's bowling attack is arguably the best in the world. #T20WorldCup

🇦🇫-🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 tactics thread. No team has a bigger bat-first toss preference than Afghanistan & no team has a bigger chasing preference than England so the toss should sort itself out in this one - unless Afghanistan get spooked into chasing by the rain. #T20WorldCup Conditions in Perth (short straight & lots of pace & bounce) will make life harder for Afghanistan’s spinners. Expect quicks to go into the pitch a lot. The majority of the interest in this game lies in England’s strong batting v Afghanistan’s strong bowling. #T20WorldCup

🇦🇺- 🇳🇿 tactics thread. With 80% chance of rain forecast both sides should consider XIs for a shortened game with a frontline bowler for an all rounder the obvious move with five proper bowlers more important than batting depth as the game gets shorter. #T20WorldCup Australia’s XI is more settled than NZ’s who have lots of decisions around their middle order, team & bowling balance. Sodhi & Santner match up nicely v Australia’s RHs so Bracewell may miss out despite good form but could play ahead of Chapman. #T20WorldCup

With the Super 12s starting tomorrow it is worth underlining the volatility of T20 & the comp format - particularly with rain forecast. In matches between the top sides no team will start as more than 60% favourites & the favourite has arguably never won the comp. #T20WorldCup The top six ranked teams (Aus, Eng, NZ, Ind, Pak & SA) are definitely clear of the other six teams - this doesn't mean that they won't drop points to the other sides but it does mean that matches between the big six are likely to carry decisive significance. #T20WorldCup

The World Test Championship Final between India v New Zealand starting on Friday is arguably the single most important Test match ever played. On a very basic level a Test has never had a world title riding on it but the match carries broader significance as well. #INDvNZ The WTC is imperfect but it has all been building to this moment, this match. If it’s a good & memorable one it should help lend significance & context to the next WTC cycle which could help reinvigorate the format, the opposite might be true if it’s a dud. #INDvNZ

Cool little package from Nass on Kane Williamson’s superpower: playing the ball late. Every time I watch Kane bat I am reminded of AB de Villiers’ box theory. 🎥 . #ENGvNZ There’s playing the ball late and then there’s playing the ball when Steve Smith plays it - which is—frankly—absurd. If it looks like Smith has a fraction of a second longer to make his decisions that’s because he does. Freak. #ENGvNZ

The fact that the Ahmedabad Test was the shortest Test since WWII will inevitably provoke questions about the pitch & whether it was fit for purpose & its overall quality. This is understandable but there are a few important points to underline surrounding this debate. #INDvENG As per the ICC's own guidelines on pitches. Was the Ahmedabad pitch unfit? No. Was it poor? Probably not. It took big spin but it rarely seemed "excessive" & there was no evidence of uneven bounce. #INDvENG

Exactly 12 years ago today, at 8pm in Bangalore, Brendon McCullum walked out to open the batting in the first match of the inaugural 2008 IPL season. He was about to play one of the most significant innings in cricket history & one that would change the sport forever. #IPL McCullum's 158* off 73 balls smashed the world record for the highest score in a T20 by 17 runs & remained a record for five years. McCullum's 13 sixes was also a world record. In perhaps the single most important match in T20's history, McCullum played its greatest innings. #IPL

The start of the South Africa series and the return of Roy, Buttler, Moeen & Stokes to the batting order after being rested in New Zealand is a significant day in England’s road to the World Cup. Thread (1/n). #SAvENG The way England structure their team with these players back will be very interesting & is likely to indicate their plans for the tournament itself later this year. The two most important issues are the batting order & the balance of the team & they are related. #SAvENG