The data, collected by researchers at #WeCount, a project led by @SocietyFP, found that abortions did rise in many states in the two months after Dobbs - but that increase wasn't enough to make up for the dramatic decline in the South and Upper Midwest.
Overall, the data suggest that in July/August, over 20,000 women were unable to get an abortion in their home state because of post-Dobbs bans or restrictions. Some of those women appear to have traveled to states like IL and NC. But not everyone could make the trip.
These data are an extraordinary, close to real-time look at how the Dobbs decision is reshaping the country and people's lives. Thanks to @UshmaU@AlisonHNorris@SocietyFP for sharing the data with us pre-publication and helping us understand the findings.
A CAVEAT I should have added to my first tweet - this dataset only captures LEGAL abortions. Some women are almost certainly obtaining abortions without clinical support, so the data likely underestimates the number of abortions that happened in July/August.
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In the wake of the Dobbs decision, I've been thinking about an experience I had last year, when I gave birth to my daughter in southern Indiana. I came into the hospital in labor and they asked me for a urine sample. Turns out, it was for a drug test.
I knew this was a possibility, which is why I asked what the sample was for. I was also drug-tested at various points during my pregnancy - it was hard to pin down staff on when it was happening. But as far as I can tell it was SOP in that practice/hospital.
There's an argument that this is a good thing - pregnant women who are drug-dependent need different kinds of care. But that was not what was happening with me. I told them I didn't want to be tested, and they said they'd treat it as a positive if I refused.
Most Americans don't want the Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade. But that tells us less about people's views on abortion than you'd expect. I've spent a lot of time trying to untangle public opinion on abortion and here are the most important takeaways, as I see them:
The vast majority of Americans do not want abortion to be fully illegal. That is, 85-90% think abortion should be available in at least some circumstances, even if they're pretty narrow. Full abortion bans **without exemptions** are extremely unpopular.
After that, the consensus breaks down. About 25-30% of Americans want abortion to be legal in all cases, without any restrictions. And the remaining 55-65% - which is to say, most people - want abortion to be legal in "some or most cases." That tells us very little.
It's wild to come off six months of fully-paid maternity leave and watch the paid family leave proposal dwindle to almost nothing - and possibly get left out altogether. For those who were not recently postpartum, here's what my life was like at various points in my leave:
Week 1: Spent almost entirely in bed. I had complications after my daughter was born and was a wreck when I came home. I literally hadn't slept in days, and was fighting dangerously high blood pressure. I couldn't even make it to my baby's six-day pediatrician appt.
Week 2: Walking up and down stairs was still a project. My husband was back at work, and my daughter was refusing to sleep unless someone was holding her. We were lucky enough to have four grandparents in town, and set up a rotating crew of overnight baby-holders.
I'm seeing takes saying - take a beat, the conservatives questioned the constitutionality of the Texas law, Roe isn't dead.
But if Roe is still good law, then women's constitutional rights are being violated in TX right now. And it's not like you can just postpone an abortion.
This was the tradeoff for the justices. Texas didn't make it easy - it would be unprecedented to enjoin state judges and clerks as a class to keep them from enforcing this law. But the justices made a choice with real, probably lasting consequences for at least some women.
Texas is a big state. It's not easy to go over the border to another state to get an abortion to begin with. And with the exception of NM, Texas is surrounded by states with many abortion restrictions. There have only been more since we published this map. fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-ca…
Curious about where Trump's legal maneuvering stands? I wrote up a summary at the @FiveThirtyEight live blog. There's not much to the lawsuits so far, despite all the hullabaloo. And it's worth repeating that Trump cannot simply "go" to the Supreme Court. fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020…
Update: the Chatman (Georgia) case has been dismissed. Working to update the post now.
One big question I'll be digging into once we have a better sense of who's won: what happened with men of color? Always suspected that a big storyline in this election would be about men's response to Trump, not just women's. fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020…
And by "better sense of who's won" I mean - once we actually know who's won. I am tired!
Just to spin this out a little more - I wrote last summer that gender would be an issue in this election, even if the candidate wasn't a woman. Why? Bc Trump's macho aesthetic (which is a real thing!) can be a challenge even for a D man. fivethirtyeight.com/features/gende…