BREAKING new data from @FiveThirtyEight:

There were almost 94,000 fewer abortions in states that implemented bans post-Dobbs, just between July and March.

Almost 100k affected and that's not even the full year. fivethirtyeight.com/features/abort… Abortions rose by ~70,000 in states without bans, but that wasn't enough to make up for the decline. Overall, there were ~24,000 fewer abortions in the U.S. between July '22 and March '23, compared to a pre-Dobbs baseline.

On some key issues for families, Democratic dads look less like D moms and more like...Republicans. This is a big problem for Ds who want more financial supports for families - and bringing your kid to the House floor won't fix it. More @fivethirtyeight fivethirtyeight.com/features/dads-… Also important to underscore: There simply isn't a consensus about what "parents' issues" even are. Almost half of Democratic dads, for example, think families have it easier today than they did in the 70s. That's a huge divide with Democratic moms.

New data, exclusively shared with @FiveThirtyEight, indicates that at least 10,000 women were unable to get an abortion in July and August because of Dobbs. fivethirtyeight.com/features/overt… The data, collected by researchers at #WeCount, a project led by @SocietyFP, found that abortions did rise in many states in the two months after Dobbs - but that increase wasn't enough to make up for the dramatic decline in the South and Upper Midwest.

In the wake of the Dobbs decision, I've been thinking about an experience I had last year, when I gave birth to my daughter in southern Indiana. I came into the hospital in labor and they asked me for a urine sample. Turns out, it was for a drug test. I knew this was a possibility, which is why I asked what the sample was for. I was also drug-tested at various points during my pregnancy - it was hard to pin down staff on when it was happening. But as far as I can tell it was SOP in that practice/hospital.

Most Americans don't want the Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade. But that tells us less about people's views on abortion than you'd expect. I've spent a lot of time trying to untangle public opinion on abortion and here are the most important takeaways, as I see them: The vast majority of Americans do not want abortion to be fully illegal. That is, 85-90% think abortion should be available in at least some circumstances, even if they're pretty narrow. Full abortion bans **without exemptions** are extremely unpopular.

It's wild to come off six months of fully-paid maternity leave and watch the paid family leave proposal dwindle to almost nothing - and possibly get left out altogether. For those who were not recently postpartum, here's what my life was like at various points in my leave: Week 1: Spent almost entirely in bed. I had complications after my daughter was born and was a wreck when I came home. I literally hadn't slept in days, and was fighting dangerously high blood pressure. I couldn't even make it to my baby's six-day pediatrician appt.

I'm seeing takes saying - take a beat, the conservatives questioned the constitutionality of the Texas law, Roe isn't dead.

But if Roe is still good law, then women's constitutional rights are being violated in TX right now. And it's not like you can just postpone an abortion.

https://twitter.com/CAKitchener/status/1433405147993022465

This was the tradeoff for the justices. Texas didn't make it easy - it would be unprecedented to enjoin state judges and clerks as a class to keep them from enforcing this law. But the justices made a choice with real, probably lasting consequences for at least some women.

Curious about where Trump's legal maneuvering stands? I wrote up a summary at the @FiveThirtyEight live blog. There's not much to the lawsuits so far, despite all the hullabaloo. And it's worth repeating that Trump cannot simply "go" to the Supreme Court. fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020… Update: the Chatman (Georgia) case has been dismissed. Working to update the post now.

One big question I'll be digging into once we have a better sense of who's won: what happened with men of color? Always suspected that a big storyline in this election would be about men's response to Trump, not just women's. fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020… And by "better sense of who's won" I mean - once we actually know who's won. I am tired!