Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

Weekend update. While the map is not changing a great deal (though it is changing) this week brings home the difference between what is happening on the direct battlefield, and what is happening behind with the preparations for battle (and how the latter determines the former).

Looking over the past three weeks, the front line has only shifted small amounts in the east (Svatove), center (Donetsk) and south/west Kherson. If you compare the large theater maps from @TheStudyofWar . you will see only very small alterations.

This lack of change masks the fact that both sides are involved in an intense struggle to determine the outcome of the battle through efforts directed long behind the lines. They are waging political/logistical strategic wars, the end result of which will determine the outcome

The Russian PLS war has three distinct tlements. They are desperately trying to shut down the Ukrainian power supply. They are having some (though not decisive) success. Was struck by this pictorial difference as shown by @StewartMcDonald

https://twitter.com/StewartMcDonald/status/1584654922439856128?s=20&t=wYwnW1UZwdQMr-9hxfnjBQ

Iran is also reportedly supplying Russia with short range ballistic missiles (and the expertise to use them) and I wouldnt be surprised if attacking Ukrainian power becomes a key target for them (also a sign that Russia is short of its own missiles)

https://twitter.com/Ayei_Eloheichem/status/1586697828407005184?s=20&t=wYwnW1UZwdQMr-9hxfnjBQ

Ukraine is definitely trying to counter this campaign, and there are increasing calls to supply Ukraine with generators. Along with Air-Defense, they will be crucial to Ukraine this winter.

https://twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1585718988708847616?s=20&t=wYwnW1UZwdQMr-9hxfnjBQ

As well as the struggle over power, Russia is hoping to cause a political change, that would bring pressure on Ukraine to settle. The decision yesterday to end the grain agreement is one such step (though the less important--as the countries affected cant really pressure Ukraine)

They will be in the global south, many of whom have supported Russia in the war so far. Its hard to see, however, how these countries could actually shape the outcome of the battle.

https://twitter.com/HarjitSajjan/status/1586415565865857024?s=20&t=wYwnW1UZwdQMr-9hxfnjBQ

Far more important, is the Russian hope that the US midterm elections bring Republican control to both the House and the Senate. Such a victory, but a party still dominated by its Trumpist core, would provide real hope for an eventual reduction in US support for Ukraine.

Now the GOP is hardly united on this--but it would be a sign that support for Ukraine is not to be taken for granted.

https://twitter.com/AndrewDesiderio/status/1583484713712640000?s=20&t=wYwnW1UZwdQMr-9hxfnjBQ

So the Russian strategic campaign involves power, global opinion and US support for Ukraine. Its clear its goal is to try and weaken Ukrainian resistance (which will fail) and potentially reduce the flow of support for Ukr and result on pressure on Ukr to cede territory.

The Ukrainian strategic campaign continues along its quite relentless path attacking Russian logistics and also to try and weaken Russia support for the war.

Certainly the most dramatic Ukrainian attack of the week was the naval/drone assault on Russian war shipping near Sevastopol.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1586421812950278144?s=20&t=wYwnW1UZwdQMr-9hxfnjBQ

These serve multiple purposes for Ukraine. They once again show the Ukrainian ability and determination to attack targets in Crimea (which had earlier been a Russian redline). They also open up important future areas of attack.

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1586358192178601984?s=20&t=wYwnW1UZwdQMr-9hxfnjBQ

If the Russians reduce their naval footprint in Sevastopol, they will have to rebase withdrawing shipping away from Crimea. That means even less protection for the Kerch Bridge, and reduced options to attack Ukraine with missiles from the Black Sea.

https://twitter.com/pravda_eng/status/1585949511695958021?s=20&t=wYwnW1UZwdQMr-9hxfnjBQ

Ukraine also continues its attacks on Russian logistical attempts to resupply Kherson.

https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1584598275616907264?s=20&t=wYwnW1UZwdQMr-9hxfnjBQ

Politically, while Russia wants to weaken support for Ukraine, the Ukrainian government is reaching out to shore it up in North America, Europe and others. Its interesting, for instance how the Ukrainians are courting the new Italian government and Israel.

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1585560699970920448?s=20&t=wYwnW1UZwdQMr-9hxfnjBQ

The Ukrainian attempt to pressure Israel to increase support is really interesting. Its a carrot and the stick approach. Will be interesting to see with the increased support of Iran for Russia, whether is bears fruit.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1584577069144760320?s=20&t=wYwnW1UZwdQMr-9hxfnjBQ

So both Russia and Ukraine are investing great effort in these different strategic campaigns, to effect the flow of support to both sides, and thus help determine the outcome of the land battle. This while the land battle itself seems to still be tilting Ukraine's favor.

Worth noting two things. While the Russians still hold Svatove, the Ukrainians are moving to cut the roads in and out of the town. This is the normal Ukrainian method of not attacking a city directly, but cutting its supply.

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1586488746391789569?s=20&t=wYwnW1UZwdQMr-9hxfnjBQ

And there are signs that it is beginning to cause some serious disruptions.

https://twitter.com/mattia_n/status/1586703043608952834?s=20&t=wYwnW1UZwdQMr-9hxfnjBQ

As for Kherson, it seems reports (some out of Russia) that the Russians were going to withdraw were a form of bluff (a bit what the Ukrainians did earlier). Theyve actually seemed to reinforce. Perhaps they wanted the Ukrainians to attempt a risky attack.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1585691206171983872?s=20&t=wYwnW1UZwdQMr-9hxfnjBQ

With the Russians there in force, the Ukrainians dont seem to be taking any risks. As its the most vulnerable area for Russian forces to try and hold, the Ukrainians seem to press slowly, and use range weaponry to extract a high toll in casualties.

I havent seen any breakdown, but Ukrainian claims of Russian casualties yesterday was a record. 950.

https://twitter.com/GeneralStaffUA/status/1586621423379947520?s=20&t=wYwnW1UZwdQMr-9hxfnjBQ

So we have the battlefield and the strategic fight behind the battlefield. Both sides are fighting in both arenas. If past history is any guide, ultimately its what happens in the strategic struggle behind the lines that determines the outcome of the battles.