Last week, @SpyTalker published a solid piece commenting on how RU's lack of an NCO Corps were the chief cause of failure in UKR.
It not the only one, but it's a huge contributor.
We'll see implications of that as winter approaches
A new 🧵 1/17
spytalk.co/p/russian-army…
It not the only one, but it's a huge contributor.
We'll see implications of that as winter approaches
A new 🧵 1/17
spytalk.co/p/russian-army…
I've been evaluating the actions of both sides based on something the Army calls "Warfighting Functions."
Warfighting functions are defined in an Army Doctrinal Publication 3-0. It's a group of tasks & systems commanders use as a guide to successfully accomplish missions. 2/
Warfighting functions are defined in an Army Doctrinal Publication 3-0. It's a group of tasks & systems commanders use as a guide to successfully accomplish missions. 2/
The Warfighting Functions provide an intellectual organization for thinking about actions of different groups in combat.
A framework of how to "see" the battlefield to determine how things "fit."
This chart comes from the manual. It's a bit "power-point-ish," but it's great. 3/
A framework of how to "see" the battlefield to determine how things "fit."
This chart comes from the manual. It's a bit "power-point-ish," but it's great. 3/
There are 5 items around the ring (movement & maneuver, sustainment, fires, protection, intelligence).
These are things performed by teams that MUST be coordinated.
No "free-floating electrons!"
In the center: Command & Control, Leadership, Mission Command, Information. 4/
These are things performed by teams that MUST be coordinated.
No "free-floating electrons!"
In the center: Command & Control, Leadership, Mission Command, Information. 4/
When Commanding the Operations Group at the Army's National Training Center in California, evaluating unit performance by using this seemingly simple (but VERY COMPLEX) chart was my job.
It would take weeks to explain the details. Trust me, it works. It's what soldiers do. 5/
It would take weeks to explain the details. Trust me, it works. It's what soldiers do. 5/
This chart helped me analyzed the RU & UKR armies during the last 7 months.
Warfighting Functions (along w/ "battlefield math," battlefield conditions, strategic/operational/tactical leadership & objectives) have helped me "see" & evaluate preparation, actions, & reactions. 6/
Warfighting Functions (along w/ "battlefield math," battlefield conditions, strategic/operational/tactical leadership & objectives) have helped me "see" & evaluate preparation, actions, & reactions. 6/
Which brings us back to having (Ukraine) or not having (Russia) a professional sergeants corps.
NCOs (like Lieutenants, Captains, Colonels, Generals & Presidents) are a critical piece of 1 thing in the "center ring:"
Leadership. 7/
NCOs (like Lieutenants, Captains, Colonels, Generals & Presidents) are a critical piece of 1 thing in the "center ring:"
Leadership. 7/
Leadership in combat is gathering information, understanding command & control, knowing what to do when no one is ordering you to do it (mission command).
That's required for generals, colonels, lieutenants.
It's also required in a professional NCO Corps. 8/
That's required for generals, colonels, lieutenants.
It's also required in a professional NCO Corps. 8/
Going back to tweet #1 of this 🧵...what's all this have to do with winter?
Yes, Ukrainian winters are tough.
Many people are saying: "Ukraine has to gain ground before the winter sets in!"
My response? "Why do you think that?" 9/
Yes, Ukrainian winters are tough.
Many people are saying: "Ukraine has to gain ground before the winter sets in!"
My response? "Why do you think that?" 9/
This @washingtonpost article from early Oct indicates both sides will suffer equal effects from the Ukrainian winter.
I disagree.
The effects of weather is experienced by soldiers on both sides, but UKR NCOs will make a difference.
How, you ask? 10/
washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
I disagree.
The effects of weather is experienced by soldiers on both sides, but UKR NCOs will make a difference.
How, you ask? 10/
washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
Fieldcraft and professional savvy will make the difference.
UKRs NCOs are better trained & savvier than their RU conscript counterpart, and...
-They have home field advantage
-They'll care for their soldiers.
-They'll maintain equipment.
All things RU "NCOs" don't have/do. 11/
UKRs NCOs are better trained & savvier than their RU conscript counterpart, and...
-They have home field advantage
-They'll care for their soldiers.
-They'll maintain equipment.
All things RU "NCOs" don't have/do. 11/
1. Home field advantage.
Rasputitsa (RU) & bezdorizhzhia (UKR) are important words.
They describe the conditions when cross-country travel becomes difficult due to rain, snow, mud.
Last Feb, RU fell victim to this & UKR took advantage.
UKR won't fall victim. 12/
Rasputitsa (RU) & bezdorizhzhia (UKR) are important words.
They describe the conditions when cross-country travel becomes difficult due to rain, snow, mud.
Last Feb, RU fell victim to this & UKR took advantage.
UKR won't fall victim. 12/
This may be part of why UKR's offensive operations in Kherson & Donetz have slowed & why RU is feverishly reinforcing their defenses.
It's been a wet fall; temps have dropped in both those places to 30-40 degree range now. There is mud.
Things have slowed. 13/
It's been a wet fall; temps have dropped in both those places to 30-40 degree range now. There is mud.
Things have slowed. 13/
2. UKR NCOs will care for their soldiers
-They care for their teams, they won't lose soldiers to hypothermia, trench foot, & frostbite.
-They'll emphasize hygiene, hydration, calories, winter cloths...all critical
-They will "embrace the suck." 14/
army.mil/article/194712…
-They care for their teams, they won't lose soldiers to hypothermia, trench foot, & frostbite.
-They'll emphasize hygiene, hydration, calories, winter cloths...all critical
-They will "embrace the suck." 14/
army.mil/article/194712…
3. UKR NCOs will care for equipment.
-They know winter causes rust, sluggish lubricants, increased failure rate.
-They know diesel engines need warming.
They'll discipline soldiers to keep equipment clean, dry, & use low-temp lubricants.
RU don't do that. 15/
-They know winter causes rust, sluggish lubricants, increased failure rate.
-They know diesel engines need warming.
They'll discipline soldiers to keep equipment clean, dry, & use low-temp lubricants.
RU don't do that. 15/
Why do I suspect UKR's NCOs will do this?
Because it's what I saw in units w/ good NCOs in our US Army and in Ukraine's Army. They are professional & they care for their soldiers.
While weather & the terrain treats both sides equally...disciplined soldiers fare better. 16/
Because it's what I saw in units w/ good NCOs in our US Army and in Ukraine's Army. They are professional & they care for their soldiers.
While weather & the terrain treats both sides equally...disciplined soldiers fare better. 16/
Yup, proper execution of the Warfighting Functions determine how units perform on the battlefield...
But great NCOs & young officers determine the discipline and effectiveness of those very same units.
One is the result of the other. 17/17
But great NCOs & young officers determine the discipline and effectiveness of those very same units.
One is the result of the other. 17/17
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