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Oct 31 4 tweets 2 min read
1/
Flash: The Norwegian PM, Minister of Defence and Chief of Defence held a press-conference today, announcing that from tomorrow, the Norwegian Armed Forces formally increases readiness iaw national defence plans.

regjeringen.no/no/aktuelt/reg…
2/
NRK article on the readiness increase:
nrk.no/norge/regjerin…
3/
We Norwegians are a bit tight lipped about Armed Forces operational activities. Readiness/alert levels aren't public either, and today's participants declined to comment on where this increase puts us.

But, there aren't any modern parallells to today
dagbladet.no/nyheter/regjer…
4/
Looking to the Cold War for parallels, one must take into account that our Armed Forces was much bigger back then, parts of it maintaining a much higher day-to-day readiness than we have had for the past decades.

IMO, there may not be any good historical examples to look at.

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More from @The_Lookout_N

Oct 16
The airspace over Stavanger airport Sola is now closed after the pilot of a plane taking off reported seeing a drone.

Police is now searching for the drone and it's operator.
Haugesund airport also closed.

vg.no/nyheter/innenr…
A simple map of the area.

Also marked Kårstø gas processing plant where there also have been drone sightings, including one operated from south of the fjord.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 15
1/
Some kind of civil defense effort seems to be underway in Russia, with awareness campaigns and readying of shelters in several areas.

Don't panic. There could be several explanations and its too early to draw any conclusions

Will try to document civil defense activity below
2/
Shelters are reportedly readied in Kursk Oblast. Being a border oblast this seems like a natural course of action.

chr.mk.ru/social/2022/10…
3/
MChS of Kaluga reportedly informs residents of civil defense alarms, and what to do in case of an alarm.

socialinform.ru/zhitelyam-kalu…
Read 5 tweets
Oct 14
A new thread with mobilization snapshots.
Relatively fresh photos

Kamenka - Leningrad Oblast, Home of the 138th Motorized Rifle Brigade - 6th CAA ImageImage
Pechenga - Murmansk Oblast, Home of the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade - Northern Fleet ImageImage
Luga - Leningrad Oblast, Home of several 6th CAA units incl 25th MRB ImageImage
Read 7 tweets
Oct 6
1/7
Noen tanker om forsvarsbudsjettet:

Regjeringens forslag er bedre enn jeg fryktet, fokus på å tette hull i eksisterende struktur og styrking av driftsbudsjettet er bra, men jeg vil påstå det fremdeles er et fredstids-budsjett som er lagt frem.
2/7
2.3.2
"Sjølv om vi ikkje ventar ei eskalering av krigen i Ukraina til nordområda, kan vi ikkje utelukka at den auka spenninga kan føra til misforståingar og enkelthendingar, også i desse områda."

Denne antakelsen er sentral i budsjettet. Jeg vil kalle den naiv og farlig.
3/7
Nord Stream sabotasjen, som har medført at vi har styrket sikkerheten rundt olje og gass installasjoner med Forsvarets ressurser, viser at faren for horisontal eskalering, først med ukonvensjonelle og sammensatte virkemidler, er reell.
Read 8 tweets
Oct 3
1/6
Some thoughts on possible Russian nuclear signaling, and how to isolate what matters from bluster, propaganda and really the bad journalism out there

First: Listen to what the US and NATO says about Russian nuclear posture. As late as today, the US have said still no changes
2/6
I consider testing of new systems such as Poseidon and SARMAT as routine, even if Russian propaganda says something else.

These are long running programs, not yet in operational service, so there will be tests. Such tests does NOT involve live nuclear warheads.
3/6
Examples of what should be treated as nuclear signaling:

Increased SSBN patrols
Mobile ICBM exercises
Larger LRA exercises
Strategic exercises (Grom) involving test firing of ICBMs and SLBMs in operational service.

Russia did conduct Grom just prior to the invasion
Read 6 tweets
Sep 27
Mobilization snapshots.

New similar images will attached to this thread.

First out:

Luga - Home of 25th Motorized Rifle Brigade, 26th Missile Brigade and 9th Artillery Brigade - 6th CAA
Sapyornoye - Home of 6th NBC Regiment - 6th CAA
Tver - Home of 79th Reactive Artillery Brigade
Read 19 tweets

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