Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Thord Are Iversen Profile picture
Thord Are Iversen
@The_Lookout_N
Military and defense issues, as seen from NATOs northern flank. Special interest: The Russian Navy. Independent Defense Analyst. the.lookout.n@protonmail.com
Hakan Profile picture 2 subscribed
May 6 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
1/
 Can't remember seeing this kind of press-release before.

Will be very interesting to see what becomes of the exercise. Think there's a good chance at least parts of it will be publicized.

As opposed to the usual rants, this looks like real nuclear signalling. 2/
 This exercise will cause fear mongering, probably aided by poor Western media coverage and that's by design so don't succumb to it

This is a way to remind us that Russian non strategic nuclear weapons exist. Doesn't mean actual nuclear use is much closer than yesterday.
Apr 15 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1/
 Rather direct message by the Norwegian Foreign Minister in Kyiv today.

"None of us does enough."

"We all need to do more, we need to do better. We need to think more strategically, about how we can help Ukraine to win and hence Russia to loose" Image 2/
 Some other quotes:

"You will not win the war with air defenses but it's an important prerequisite"

"I also belong to those countries in Europe that think that Ukraine also needs to be able to strengthen it's capability to strike behind enemy lines"
Jan 8 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
1/5
 I think the Russians are putting quite an effort into planning these strikes.

Their primary targets seem to be military-industrial facilities.

Yes, the strikes are causing civilian casualties but, in my opinion, the Russians aren't mindlessly using up their missiles. 2/5
 There is of course uncertainty as the Ukrainians, quite naturally, highly likely tries to prevent information that would ease the Russian battle damage assessment process from coming out.

Looking at the strikes, remember that things aren't as transparent as they seem.
Oct 10, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
1/5
 Thoughts around Balticconnector and the cable:

Once again we are in a situation with a lot of uncertainty, many questions and few hard facts beyond the actual damage and Finnish statements that it was caused by "external actions" and "intentional". 2/5
 This happened in an area with high maritime traffic and the timeline before the events are unknown.

While open sources can provide some clues, establishing exactly what happened is likely beyond the capabilities of OS.

Just as the last time something like this happened.
Sep 13, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
I'm late, but there was a major Ukranian attack against Sevastopol last night. Here's a good thread.

As always, making an accurate battle damage assessment will take some time, so patience is required. Seems this indeed was a major Storm Shadow/SCALP raid.

Aug 11, 2023 • 18 tweets • 7 min read
1/
 Russian naval activity.

In the south (seen with Norwegian eyes): 2/
 Up north, the Bear Island " Impact areas for Russian missiles" are now active. Image
Aug 9, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Very interesting article, Ukrainian perspective on training received in the West.

To improve on this one has to somehow better merge Ukrainian expectations, battlefield experiences, the courses and programs held in the West and current Western practices.

Not an easy undertaking Not easy, but important to continually improve the training given, so that it gives effect.

Western peacetime regulations and bureaucracy is one aspect, but I think humility, from both sides, may be what's most important.
Aug 5, 2023 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
1/13
Thread explaining my concerns.

To those who get riled up, I did say I understand the Ukrainian reasoning, but there are risks to consider, hence why I said I hope there's a good plan behind this.

Key concern: A slide into unrestricted naval warfare in the Black Sea. 2/13
I believe today's NAVWARN and the attack on Sig, should be seen in light of this statement from the Ukrainian MOD around July 20th.

It was issued after the Russian declaration, likely in response, with a ominously similar message. Image
Aug 2, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
1/5
 I think this discussion need some nuance to "trained by the West"

For newer formations, we are talking about wartime raised, mostly mobilized units, given 4-6 weeks of combined arms training.

This should have contributed to managing expectations in advance 2/5
 These units where then given the task of trying to break through fortified lines, in depth, constructed over time.

Again, prehaps contrary to the expectations of many, the Russians are fighting tenaciously and according to doctrine.

No easy task for any army.
Mar 23, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1/5
 Good weather over Kola earlier today.

In Severomorsk, 1 x Udaloy-class DDG still missing.

No self-propelled crane at the Okolnaya Missile Pier indicates SLBM loading of the Generalssimus Suvrov likely finished.

Normal caveats apply to all bases in the thread. 2/5
 4 x SSBNs alongside in Gadzhiyevo means 3 likely are sea, which is within the normal pattern.
Mar 21, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1/4
 Konklusjonene i analysen er ikke overraskende, det står mye fornuftig der, men det er noe med forutsetningene rapporten hviler på.

Riktig nok anerkjennes dette, men i mine øyne viser dette hvor vanskelig det er å omstille oss til en ny virkelighet.
ffi.no/publikasjoner/… 2/4
 I dagens verden mener jeg det å basere forsvarspolitikken, og planleggingen, på at det ikke blir krig er å ta farlig høy risiko.

Vi leverer i en usikker tid. Jeg har tidligere dratt lignelsen at vi seiler i tåken, utenfor kartet. ImageImage
Mar 12, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
This debate is getting heated and I'm not privy to Ukr General Staff operational picture nor future plans, but:

From an analyst perspective, I'm getting increasingly concerned the handling of Bakhmut since mid Feb could negatively impact future Ukr operations and their prospects To clarify my concerns:

I interpret the Russian operations since January as a possible attempt to prevent, or at least restrict and disrupt the expected coming Ukrainian offensives by forcing an early commitment of reserves and supplies, esp artillery ammunition.
Feb 13, 2023 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
1/
 The Norwegian Intelligence Service has today published it's annual unclassified assessment Focus. Only in Norwegian so far, the English version due in March.

Some highlights on Russia and the war will follow in this thread.
etterretningstjenesten.no/publikasjoner/… 2/
 "The invasion has clarified the threat Russia poses to neighboring states and NATO. Although Russia currently is weakened conventionally, they are not less dangerous now. Russia will rebuild its military capability."
Jan 22, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
1/4
 The Norwegian Chief of Defence, General Eirik Kristoffersen, gave these casualty estimates on TV2 today, though with caveats:

Russian mil: 180 000 KIA/WIA
Ukrainian mil: 100 000 KIA/WIA
Ukrainian civilian: 30 000 killed

Other important quotes follow

tv2.no/nyheter/utenri… 2/4
"[Despite heavy losses] Russia has the ability to manufacture more [equipment], withdraw equipment from from storage and mobilize more [manpower], he points out."

"Russia is capable of continuing this [the war] for a very long time, says Eirik Kristoffersen."
Dec 21, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
1/5
 Official transcript of Shoigu's speech has been released by the MoD, and there's plenty of new developments to track:

Recreation of the Moscow and Leningrad MDs.
Formation of 3 motorized rifle divisions, possibly part of a CAA, in Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. 2/5
 Establish an Army Corps in Karelia.
Form 5 Naval Infantry Divisions on the basis of existing brigades.
Reorganize 7 MRBs of the Northern Fleet, Western, Central and Eastern MDs into Divisions.
Two new Airborne Assault Divisions.
Nov 25, 2022 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
1/2
 Denne artikkelserien har blitt enda mer relevant i lys av bruduljen som er under oppseiling angående nye stridsvogner.

Alle tre artikler bør være pensum for alle som har en mening om Forsvarets, og spesielt landmaktens utvikling, i en meget farlig tid

Vel talt, Tomas Beck! 2/2
Mine synspunkter:

Finnmark kan og må forsvares
En mekanisert Brig N er kjernen i landmakten
Forsvaret må umiddelbart styrkes kraftig

Vi trenger øyeblikkelig handling, ikke farlige eksperimenter basert på sviktende analyser, uprøvde teorier og overdreven tro på teknologi.
Oct 31, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
1/
 Flash: The Norwegian PM, Minister of Defence and Chief of Defence held a press-conference today, announcing that from tomorrow, the Norwegian Armed Forces formally increases readiness iaw national defence plans.

regjeringen.no/no/aktuelt/reg… 2/
 NRK article on the readiness increase:
nrk.no/norge/regjerin…
Oct 16, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The airspace over Stavanger airport Sola is now closed after the pilot of a plane taking off reported seeing a drone.

Police is now searching for the drone and it's operator. Haugesund airport also closed.

vg.no/nyheter/innenr…
Oct 15, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1/
 Some kind of civil defense effort seems to be underway in Russia, with awareness campaigns and readying of shelters in several areas.

Don't panic. There could be several explanations and its too early to draw any conclusions

Will try to document civil defense activity below 2/
 Shelters are reportedly readied in Kursk Oblast. Being a border oblast this seems like a natural course of action.

chr.mk.ru/social/2022/10…
Oct 14, 2022 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
A new thread with mobilization snapshots.
Relatively fresh photos

Kamenka - Leningrad Oblast, Home of the 138th Motorized Rifle Brigade - 6th CAA ImageImage Pechenga - Murmansk Oblast, Home of the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade - Northern Fleet ImageImage
Oct 6, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
1/7
 Noen tanker om forsvarsbudsjettet:

Regjeringens forslag er bedre enn jeg fryktet, fokus på å tette hull i eksisterende struktur og styrking av driftsbudsjettet er bra, men jeg vil påstå det fremdeles er et fredstids-budsjett som er lagt frem. 2/7
 2.3.2
"Sjølv om vi ikkje ventar ei eskalering av krigen i Ukraina til nordområda, kan vi ikkje utelukka at den auka spenninga kan føra til misforståingar og enkelthendingar, også i desse områda."

Denne antakelsen er sentral i budsjettet. Jeg vil kalle den naiv og farlig.