Thomas C. Theiner Profile picture
Oct 31, 2022 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
The reasons Italy's Army never received all the funds to modernize its heavy equipment are:

1) an army doesn't need main battle tanks, tracked IFVs, long range air defense systems, self-propelled artillery, armored bridgelayers, etc. if its adversary are the Taliban.

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2) Italy focused heavily on modernizing its Navy and Air Force equipment, which costs muuuuuuuch more than army equipment.

Two F-35 (or two Eurofighter) cost the same as the yearly salaries for an entire army brigade. Italy bought 96 Eurofighter and 90 F-35.

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A modern frigate costs the same as raising and equipping a tank battalion with brand new Leopard 2A7V. Since the war on terror startet Italy bought/is buying 17 frigates (and 2 aircraft carriers, 4 destroyers, 8 submarines, 3 amphibious ships, etc. etc.)

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Staying with ships: Italy bought 500+ Aster-15/Aster-30 surface-to-air missiles for its Navy, which cost the same as three battalions worth of brand new PzH 2000.

Equipping two Eurofighters with a full air-to-air load of Meteor & IRIS-T missiles costs the same
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as four M142 HIMARS with around 500 GMLRS missiles.

Italy's Army isn't the only one that suffered this lack of investment over the last decade. The British Army is in even worse shape... in some countries all branches of the armed forces suffered (i.e. Germany, Netherlands)
5/n
Now that more funds become available it is imperative to invest in land systems. Poland is charging ahead and buying more tanks than France, Italy, Germany and the UK posses now.
Italy's Army has the plans how to modernize and grow its capabilities ready since 2014.

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And Europe doesn't need an increase in troops (European NATO members field 150+ brigades, vs. 31 active US Army brigades). What Europe needs is more and newer equipment, a lot more logistics to move troops and equipment, and especially more of this smiley fella:
7/end Image

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More from @noclador

Dec 5
The @RoyalAirForce - once the strongest air force in Western Europe... but now...

7 Eurofighter Typhoon squadrons are expected to fulfill the tasks, for which 35 years ago the RAF fielded 40 squadrons (31 active & 4 reserve + 5 shadow squadrons, which would have been formed
1/27 Image
from the personnel & fighters of the RAF's operational conversion units).

At the end of the Cold War these 40 squadrons were assigned to 4 commands, each with a specific mission & enough aircraft to fulfill their mission.

No. 1 Group was tasked with striking Soviet forces
2/27 Image
in Northern Germany, including with WE.177 tactical nukes.

The Group fielded 8 active, 4 reserve and 2 shadow squadrons, which flew Tornado GR1, Jaguar GR1A, and Harrier GR5 fighters (the reserve squadrons flew Hawk T1A). The group also included the RAF's 3 aerial
3/27 Image
Read 27 tweets
Nov 13
I was asked to talk about Austria's Armed Forces... which is a bit boring, because surprisingly their armed forces get so much right.

Yes, the Austrians are some of the worst sanctions ignorers when it comes to russia, and they host the biggest russian signals intelligence
1/22 Image
station outside of russia, and are home to the largest number of russian intelligence operators after London, but when it comes to the Austrian Army and Austrian Air Force procurement there is little to criticize... except of course that many of their officers are compromised
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by the russians and the austrian defence ministry leaks every bit of intelligence to moscow...

Anyway, unlike the other neutral EU member (an island that spends GDP-wise less on its armed forces than the Vatican), Austria has a proper air force and a proper army; both of
3/n Image
Read 22 tweets
Nov 7
Italy has ordered its first KF41 Lynx infantry fighting vehicles... but there is a twist.

As the Italian Army is in a rush to ready its forces to battle invading russians in the Baltics (& Finland), the first 5 × KF41 will arrive within weeks in the Hungarian configuration.
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That means there won't be any Italianization of the first 5 × KF41. The Italian Army feels that it can't wait for that. Training has to start ASAP.

Therefore these 5 × KF41 will come with Rheinmetall's Lance Turret with 30mm MK30-2/ABM autocannon. Along with these KF41 Italy
2/8 Image
will receive training and simulation systems to begin training troops ASAP.

This order also includes 16 × KF41 in a hybrid version: the chassis will come from the Hungarian production line, but these KF41 will receive Leonardo's Hitfist turret with Leonardo's 30mm X-Gun.
3/8 Image
Read 8 tweets
Oct 30
I am relaxed about the US ending the rotation of a light brigade through Romania.

Yes, it is bad optics and russia will use it for its propaganda, BUT two armored brigades, a combat aviation brigade, a division artillery, a division sustainment brigade, and a division HQ
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continue to rotate to Poland and the Baltics.

Right now the:
• 3rd Infantry Division HQ (arrived in Poland 4 days ago - photo)
• 1st Armored Brigade, 1st Infantry Division
• 3rd Armored Brigade, 1st Cavalry Division
• 3rd Division Artillery
• 3rd Combat Aviation Brigade
2/4 Image
are in Poland and the Baltics.

Ending the rotation of a light brigade to Romania is a far less bad than ending the rotation of the armored brigades. It is also understandable as the US Army's light divisions (10th Mountain, 25th Infantry, 82nd Airborne, 101st Airborne) are
3/4
Read 4 tweets
Sep 13
Of course russia can quickly seize the Suwałki Gap and cut of the Baltics from the rest of NATO... but have you had a look at Kaliningrad's border and the flat dry country beyond?

There are 9 Polish brigades in that area (and 11 in reserve, with 4 more forming). Sure russia
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could move 50,000+ men to Kaliningrad to secure the border or build a defence line along the Pregoła river... but those need to be supplied from Belarus, which also is easily invaded unless russia sends 50,000+ troops to secure its flank there. A buildup of 200,000+ russian
2/5
troops in Belarus would be noticed by NATO (and ordinary people in Belarus, who would upload 100s of videos of the arriving russians).
In summary the main risk isn't that russia suddenly seizes and fortifies the Suwałki Gap... the main risk is that russia starts building up
3/5
Read 5 tweets
Sep 7
The North Atlantic - one of the key battles in a russia-Europe war.

If Europe is defeated here, which with Europe's current forces and capabilities, is almost certain to happen... then russia can nuke the UK without fear of retaliation.

This will be a unsettling thread:
1/40 Image
This battle will be very different from the battles in the Black Sea and Baltic Sea, which I discussed in an early thread, which is linked below.

To understand the North Atlantic Battle we need to look at Imperial Germany's WWI submarine campaign,


2/n
and at the WWII Battle of the Atlantic. We will also have to take a deep dive into the Cold War and that era's submarines and submarine tactics.

In WWI the Imperial German Navy sent some 300+ submarines into the Atlantic, which sank more than 4,000 merchant vessels. The UK
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Read 41 tweets

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