Thread by @MassDara

Russian leaders declare mobilization complete as of 10/31. Below, some thoughts on the stark disconnect between Putin/Shoygu's assurances and actual field conditions for Russian soldiers through the winter. This thread also comes with a very specific soundtrack. /1

First, I’d like to take a cue from @WarintheFuture and recognize those I have cited here @wartranslated @ChrisO_wiki @CITeam_en @ArtisanalAPT /2

This song is on my mind lately, it is from Kino, a Soviet rock band, check them out. The song is Мама, мы все сошли с ума...(Mama, we have all lost our minds) /3

Russia claims 80,000 have been sent to Ukraine, half to combat units, half to supporting roles, as I suspected they might do. 218K are in training. Putin said elsewhere they receive ~20-30 days of training. But reality is of course, much different. /4 meduza.io/en/news/2022/1…

Recently President Putin and Defense Minister Shoygu, visited a base to oversee mobilization training in Ryazan. There they were shown young, tall, well-outfitted troops. Asking them if there were problems and if they are scared on camera, so of course the answer is ‘no.’ /5

Based on the blue VDV hats and Ryazan, I think this could be the same base where the experimental professional NCO program was supposed to be based from when created in 2009, but ultimately ended after 2013 (under Shoygu and Gerasimov). /6 t.me/zvezdanews/970…

It was a good idea, but never properly resourced after its initial pilot. mostly because current leaders didn't see the value in it I guess. but I digress /7 jamestown.org/program/russia…

Shoygu and Putin claim publicy that troops are well equipped, well trained, and esprit de corps is high. I can’t say I’ve found evidence of that, at this stage of mobilization anyway, from the anecdotes I’ve seen now that they are arriving in Ukraine /8

For example, soldiers record pleas to Russian governors as they have been dumped inside Ukraine with no supplies /9

https://twitter.com/vidtranslator/status/1585305762930245640?s=46&t=lHoHEoAaExLZcWSYuLXvYQ

I’ve seen a few anecdotes where they receive training only when there are VIP visitors to the training range and the rest of training is suboptimal /10

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1584164368543256577?s=20&t=LHnvc47U0NWjWUhhWieWYA

Hard to verify this one b/c it’s just audio but details are consistent: only trained for a few days when a VIP came to the training range. Then, mobilized forces were put in a trench *in front* of contractniki where they were shelled by Ukrainians. /11

This group, mobilized with the 4th Tank Division, with no food, no water, no grenades, nothing: /11https://twitter.com/vidtranslator/status/1584933623194701825?s=46&t=un1Li-Z7rJGb2G1oNEEOPQ /12

This group was dropped in the field with no command or information. Later on they say “we are all sick.” /12

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1583513387039830017?s=20&t=UkEnNZHG6WdBTEcpllQygA

This group is sheltering in a barn inside Ukraine, it’s cold and dirty there so sickness will spread. Maybe its hard to set up a tent bivouac near the LOC because it would be targeted by the UAF. /13

https://twitter.com/CITeam_en/status/1586708151373598723?s=20&t=xUkbGWglfWmDP1onY46kKQ

In the case of this platoon, poorly equipped and trained, over half were KIA or went missing /14 meduza.io/en/feature/202…

Some are, in this circumstance, refusing to fight. Since deserters and refuseniks are basically viewed as criminals in a warzone now, this group is being imprisoned in whatever jails or basements are found. /15

https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/1584835244980854784?s=46&t=un1Li-Z7rJGb2G1oNEEOPQ

Soldiers and families are purchasing their own equipment /16 theguardian.com/world/2022/oct…

In other cases, families are making appeals about the poor conditions – no food no water, equipment problems. /17

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1585545361120264192?s=20&t=a24fltqcUchEQrr-xbPnCQ

Yet, Shoygu claims the early mobilization problems have been resolved.🧐What is going on in the units now doesn’t bode well for trying to turn this around, but maybe it's possible. Perhaps w/new control measures in the economy, the MOD will have more control over troop resupply

What equipment is available for such a large force? Hard to say just yet. Russia has been drawing down its strategic reserves throughout the summer before mobilization, although there is quite a good deal left. If it works /19

The next few months will be hard on UAF and Russian forces. There are several areas on the Russian front which are under strain, most notably the western bank of Kherson. The next few months will probably be the hardest part for Russia to try to hold it together./20

Russia is trying to boost the number of personnel in depleted units so there is not another collapse like in Kharkiv (below). Yet, it’s hard to see how combat conditions and local commanders like they have will help. /21 reuters.com/investigates/s…

the video is ominous + upsetting, given all the above issues. Relevant lyrics from the song if you are listening: Мама, мы все тяжело больны/Мама, я знаю, мы все сошли с ума...(Mama we are all gravely sick, Mama, I know we all have lost our minds) /22

https://twitter.com/citeam_en/status/1583107081460064256

Next is the west bank of Kherson, where the remains of Russia’s best units are. I will save that for another thread.🎵 sticks with me again: И вот ты стоишь на берегу, и думаешь "Плыть или не плыть?" (and here you stand on the riverbank thinking, to swim or not swim?) /end