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Oct 31, 2022 15 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Update 🧵October 31th

This thread is sponsored the Battle Pig 3000, end boss.

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Most of the reported shellings today were along the active frontline. A few were left out in the Kerson region, probably around 10. Image
Kharkiv
The AFU defended against an attack against Zelene along the RU-UA border. Image
Svatove-Kreminna
GSUA reported shellings in Ploshchanka and Chervonopopivka which means the AFU are operating close to those towns. I extended the UA area of operations to the east. Image
The AFU repulsed an attack in the area of Novoselivske, indicating the AFU have positions in or close to the settement. ImageImage
Siversk
RuAF attacked around Bilogorivka and Mykolaivka, this is strange since Mykolaivka have not been mentioned in a long time. Wagner are supposed to hold positions along the road.
I believe this is the right Mykolaivka, but I'm far from sure, it was in the Luhansk region. Image
Bakhmut
A few less attacks in this area today.
The reason could be resources have been allocated to the attacks south of Donetsk.
Repulsed attacks were reported around Bakhmutske and Mayorsk. Image
Donetsk.
Mostly LDNR forces attacked in this area, their attempts to advance were repulsed in the area of Avdiivka, Vesele, Vodyane, Maryinka and Novobakhmutivka. Image
Pavlivka
As far as I can tell, the large scale attack around Pavlivka is still ongoing, I believe they are attacking from he south and from the east. It is being reported, mainly on Russian channels, that UA reinforcements have arrived. Image
According to the chatter, RU forces are attacking both Pavlivka and Vuhledar. They have not managed to push the AFU across the river but can fire on the crossing, which makes me believe the situation is looking like this. Image
I narrowed down the contested area a bit and moved RU line of control a bit north along the Dnipro river. I previously had it further south because of uncertainty, I don't believe anythign has changed in the area. Image
I would like to bring attention to this post by @NLwartracker.
Ukraine the capabilities to hit targets beyond 85km, they need ATACMS and similar weapons now.
h/t to whoever it was making the battle pig 3000

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More from @DefMon3

Sep 12
Rough infil/exfil path of the UVU shooter, based on photos, videos and eye whitness reports. Green arrows are guestimated paths between sightings. Image
In the start of this video, the UVU shooter can be seen walking towards the campus, at the end he can be seen running away from it.
40.28187, -111.71443
The next location is the tunnel going under the Campus drive to the parking garage
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Ukrainian Drone hit the Deng Xiaoping Logistics Complex which is part of the Alabuga Special Economical Zone. The Alabuga SEZ is where they produce the Shahed drone.
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Grok canceling vatniks 🤣 Image
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Jul 5
This is an interesting case. The local municipality decided to investigate their legal options to force the church to move.
Nothing says church like high metal fences, guard dogs and military age males in hoodies. Image
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Jun 25
The reason the confidence is low, is a lack of data. They simply dont have enough information to know yet. Desplite that, the US President proclaims complete destruction, an assesment likely based more on his whishes than any intelligence.
Image
Furthermore, they are trying to supress any discussion about this and might actually prevent the DIA to do their job properly, they know a negative report will not be precieved well by the White House. Image
Hegseth also tells a story which does not align with reality. We have all seen the pictures. There isnt a mountain of rubble. Hegseth says he have seen it all, and i wonder if it was during his time as prison guard or if it was during his time as a instructor? Image
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Jun 24
I have seen speculations about some of the HEU and centrifuges being moved to the new underground facilities (UGF) south west of Natanz main compound. I do not belive this is the case, I think the tunnel complex to the SW of the main facility is unfinished. Here is why Image
The main compound is secured by at least five layers of fencing and walls, with three checkpoints required to enter the facility. Image
Compare this to the new UGF complex to the SW.
Only two tunnels have extra fencing, the wall and fencing around it is incomplete. There are clear sings of construction work going in near the tunnel entrances. Image
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