(On the other hand, who you gonna believe: me & my phone on my block, or a well known national reporter who definitely does not have a political axe to grind as she describes our city as a post-apocalyptic hellhole🤔)
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and...Oct 31 voter reg stats just dropped (into my inbox! because I emailed & asked for them. PA state bureaucracies are Good Actually). As a reminder Oct 24 was the last day to register to vote in this Nov's election, so assuming all county updates are in, this is where we stand
Basic takeaway: post-Dobbs pattern held. Democratic voter registration finished strong, outpacing Republican net gains by just over 6,000 net voters statewide in the last two weeks. (Note these stats encompass not just new voters but party changers, deaths & relocations, etc)
On the one hand those are strong numbers. On the other hand, Democrats' 9,268 net advantage in total partisan registration since Dobbs still doesn't even equal the GOP's 10,127 net advantage posted in May-June alone, to say nothing of the GOP juggernaut of the previous 9 months🤷♀️
A link shared in a SWPA community Fb group carried me to this site👇, which shares registered voters' full identifying information & gamifies the submission of challenge letters to local clerks. Weaponized transparency + crowdsourced procedural disruption. Are we ready for this?
omg it's like a nightmarish mashup of everything I worry about. Progressive grassroots Postcards to Voters here transformed👇into malinformation that furthers false claims regarding mail ballot voter fraud— pushed by shady Fb influencers crowdsourcing local political action 😳
The poster is be a Central Wisconsin activist who is using Facebook Live videos to hype Peter Bernegger's false claims of mail ballot fraud + the tools they built for participatory generation of more (currently only covering WI). Unclear why poster joined this SWPA group in July
I was curious about how those first-months-after-Dobbs shifts in voter registration were holding up in PA, so I checked. The contrast with the GOP glory days back in the first 6 months of 2022 continues to be absolutely stark
(as a reminder, more info that any human could want about long term patterns in partisan voter registration in PA is available to you here:
So for folks asking whether this isn't just seasonal business as usual: really, it's not. If you track shifts in total voter registration in PA between each election from primary 2015 to the present, there have only been 3 prior times (out of 14) where Dems have outgained the GOP
So @tbonier's thread on the predominance of women registering to vote in swing states in the wake of the overturning of Roe v Wade inspired me to check recent shifts in partisan registration in PA.
tl;dr New gains are neither Dem nor GOP but rather *overwhelmingly* Independents
As a reminder, this is what long term registration trends in PA have looked like. On balance since 2015 Dems have made no gains, GOP have gained half a million voters, & Independent/Other parties have gained about 200,000 registrants
If we look just at changes from election to election, the massive Republican registration gains between the 2020 primary & 2020 general election really stand out: as do Dems' declines in every 6 month stretch since then
I was wondering what partisan voter registration trends in PA looked like—bc, candidate quality? vibes?🤷♀️?—so I checked in on change over the past 3 months & the answer is: totally disastrous for Democrats. Fwiw.
From April-July 2022, Dems gained more total registrants than the GOP in 4 counties: Delco, Montco, Chester & Dauphin. Everywhere else Dems either gained fewer registrants than the GOP (eg Allegheny, Philly); lost while the GOP gained (most places); or lost more than the GOP lost
People are asking is this just a no-news-here continuation of longterm trends. Kind of, but worse, & with fewer points of possible encouragement for Dems. Eg from June 2019-Aug 2020 Dems' net registration advantage in PA fell by 23,000. In the past 3 months alone, it fell 28,000.