Deleting my Emerson tweet because we don't have proof that they polled or weighted incorrectly and I really don't want people to jump to a conclusion on the stats alone. To be honest, I have no idea what Emerson did here. I don't know how you can get a difference like that.
It is *extremely* weird for them to get a poll that very weirdly lines up with the old partisanship of the districts better than the new ones (#NM02: Trump +10 in 2020, Biden +5 in 2022, recalled vote Trump +11?). Also, why are natives 4% of the electorate in #NM03?
Same thing in #NM03, where the recalled vote is Biden +18 for a seat that was Biden +18 in 2020 and Biden +11 after a redraw.
Like, I really don't know what they'd be doing to get something that similar to the old partisanships. But then you look at the voter registration model and it...largely lines up? For example, in #NM02, they have registered Dems as 44% of the electorate and 46% in #NM03. Close.
My best guess is that someone messed something up badly here in the process of making their electorate screen. I am also somewhat surprised that their "very likely voters" screen is basically identical to the RV statistics, but I will defer to more experienced people on this.
Lastly, Biden +24 is their recalled vote in 2020 for #NM01. That lines up *perfectly* with the Biden +23 result before the redraw, which took it to Biden +14.4.
These are too similar to the very different 2020 seats to *not* think they messed up.
These are too similar to the very different 2020 seats to *not* think they messed up.
so, tl;dr: I think Emerson messed up badly, and I'm not at all certain that they knew what they were doing here, but I can easily see how they'd make a mistake like this! but that thread caught fire quickly and I don't want people confidently making conclusions from it yet.
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