Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Nov 1 9 tweets 4 min read
Morning everyone! Some thoughts on where we are 7 days before last day of voting.

Early vote remains encouraging. At this point in 2018 Rs had 300k national vote lead. Today Ds lead by 2.6m.

Ds are above 20 share in GA, IA, MI, NM, NV, NC, OH, PA, TX, WI, almost in AZ, WA. 1/ This the TargetEarly national summary from the morning of No
While I'm more focused on the early vote, polling over past week has been good for Ds.

We've had good Senate polls in AZ/GA/NV/PA/WI. Good youth and Hispanic polls. Majority of national tracks last week were +D.

I'd still rather be us than them. 2/

This is a very close election. Please make sure you vote early. Voting early helps our elections run more smoothly, and helps create more Dem voters.

By voting early you allow our campaigns to target lower propensity voters now, increasing turnout.

Spread the word. 3/
Despite the efforts of Putin and the Saudis to raise gas prices and hurt the US and global economies, gas prices continue to fall.

This is good news. 4/

The economy remains very strong:

- GDP growth 3x Trump
- Unemployment/uninsured/poverty rates at record lows
- Annual deficit plummeting
- Wage growth, new business starts way above norm
- We've made historic investments in future growth, US success 5/

I remain incredibly grateful to Liz Cheney, Bill Kristol, Michael Steele, Matthew Dowd and the thousands of prominent Republicans across the country who've joined us in fighting MAGA.

They are courageous patriots, and deserve our thanks and praise. 6/

Last night I joined the great @JoyAnnReid on @MSNBC to talk about how the "red wave" meme had been created by Rs flooding the zone w/polls and gaming the polling averages.

Polls have actually been good for Ds of late.

It's a dark, illiberal effort. 7/

How much of a difference could the GOP's gaming of the averages have?

This study suggests it could be as much as 3-4 points. That's a lot.

I remain flabbergasted media election folks got played so badly. 8/

After further study we now know the R campaign to corrupt the polling averages is focused on 7 states: AZ, GA, NH, NV, OH, PA, WA.

They dropped 6 national tracks in last 2 days.

They wouldn't be doing this if they were winning. 9/

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More from @SimonWDC

Nov 2
An update on the encouraging early vote.

Using TargetEarly, Ds lead 50.4-39.5 (+11) out of 26m votes cast. That gives Ds a 3m vote lead. At this point in 2018 Rs had 140k vote lead.

As the goal of a campaign is to get more votes than the other side we're off to good start. 1/ Image
Here's how it looks in key battlegrounds (+ is net points higher than 2020 at this point):

IA 59-37 +13
GA 49-42 +12
MI 51-28 +22
NC 50-43 +3
NM 56-40 +2
NV 50-44 +2
OH 44-40 +8
PA 72-25 +12
TX 40-45 +6
VA 55-30 +6
WA 58-30 +.2

This is all really good. 2/
Updating this to add WI:

IA 59-37 +13 (above 2020)
GA 49-42 +12
MI 51-28 +22
NC 50-43 +3
NM 56-40 +2
NV 50-44 +2
OH 44-40 +8
PA 72-25 +12
TX 40-45 +6
VA 55-30 +6
WA 58-30 +.2
WI 38-33 +13

Did anyone think this would look so good right now? 3/
Read 4 tweets
Nov 2
Good morning everybody. 6 days of voting left!

Some things I'm seeing:

- Dem overperformance in House specials & Kansas showing up in early vote, Senate polling
- Good youth, Hispanic polls
- McConnell final ad buy not red wavey
- Liz Cheney, Barack 1/

About that red wave - where is it exactly?

Rs BELOW 2020 early vote nationally, and in GA, IA, MI, NC, NM, NV, OH, PA, TX, VA, WI.

In recent high quality Senate polls Rs below Trump in AZ, GA, NC, IA, OH, PA.

In 22 been Ds overperforming, not Rs. 2/

McConnell's final ad buy is spending heavily in NC and OH.

Also, Trump heads to IA for Grassley this week.

IA, NC, OH in play is not red wavey - it's another sign of Dem overperformance. 3/

Read 8 tweets
Nov 2
Still trying to get my head around that there have been people on this site arguing that you can’t learn anything about the election from studying how tens of millions of people are actually *voting.*
Republicans have no real answer to why we haven’t seen a red wave in the 5 House specials, in Kansas or in the early vote.

Maybe the rw shows up on Election Day but tens of millions of people have voted all over the country and GOP numbers are DOWN from 2020.
Ds outperformed 2020 in the 5 House specials and Kansas.

They are outperforming 2020 in the early vote in GA, IA, MI, NC, NM, NV, OH, PA, TX, VA, WI.

Recent high quality polls (NYT, Marist, etc) show D candidates outperforming 2020 election results in most of these states.
Read 6 tweets
Nov 1
Know some folks are wondering why @tbonier and I have talking so much about the early vote.

Simply, the goal of an election is to get more votes than the other side.

So far, that's what Democrats are doing. And that's good. 1/

Big q of 22 was always would Ds see their overperformance in 5 House specials/Kansas carry over to general?

Well, according to TargetEarly, Dems are outpacing their 2020 early vote performance at this point in GA, IA, MI, MN, NC, NM, NV, OH, PA, TX, VA, WI.

So, could be. 2/
Know everything is supposed to suck for Dems right now, but here's the early vote so far (D/R):

GA 50-42
IA 59-37
MI 51-28
NC 50-43
NV 51-43
OH 44-40
PA 73-24
VA 55-30
WA 57-31
WI 39-32

Doesn't mean we win, but seeing lots of Dem intensity so far. That's good. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Oct 31
Dems strong week of polling and early vote performance continues.

Whatever bump Rs got a few weeks ago has clearly receded.

Their campaign to game the polling averages looks increasingly desperate.

More here:
This is a very close election everyone.

Vote early. It helps increase Dem turnout.

Make your calls, texts, doorknocks.

Spread positive sentiment thru your networks.

Keep working it. We can win the midterms!
Here's a clip from my @JoyAnnReid @MSNBC hit tonight.

Red wave is BS, fiction. Polling averages have been corrupted by a flood of GOP polls. Real polls, early vote very positive for Dems.

We have a shot - keep working hard peeps!

Read 4 tweets
Oct 31
So, over last few days I've been arguing a combination of

- strong Dem early vote
- a good week of polling for Dems
- a ferocious campaign by Rs to flood the zone w/their polls, game the polling averages

suggested "red wave" talk was, um, bullshit. 1/

Ds had good Senate polls last week. Majority of tracks, incl Likely Voter, had us up. We had good youth, Hispanic polls.

But then Rs dumped 5 natl tracks on Fri, and flooded states with polls, skewing the averages.

Media got played, again 👇 2/

Then this am the NYT, after dropping a set of encouraging House polls a few days ago, drops 4 really encouraging Senate polls. which show Ds in strong position to keep the Senate, no red wave.

This data tracks natl polls last week, strong D early vote. 3/
Read 8 tweets

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