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Ben Casselman Profile picture
@bencasselman
Nov 1, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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Job openings rose in September, to 10.7 million. Still only partly offsets the big drop in August.
Quits rate held steady at 2.7%.
Layoffs remain very low (and dipped back down slightly).
#JOLTS
bls.gov/news.release/j…
Job openings edged back up in September, which isn't a big surprise given the huge drop in August. (Aug. also revised up, but only slightly.)
Basic story seems unchanged: Openings are falling, but from a *very* high level. Area chart showing level of job openings in millions.
The uptick in job openings pushed back up the ratio of openings per unemployed worker, though it remains a bit below the 2:1 ratio we saw at the peak. Still lots of jobs out there! Line chart showing the ratio of job openings to unemployed w
Voluntary quits continue to edge down, though they remain high. Quits are key both as a sign of worker confidence and as a source of wage growth. (Remember: Most people quit to take another job.) Area chart showing voluntary quits by month, in millions.
It's notable that while quits are elevated, they are not NEARLY as elevated as openings, relative to their historical levels. Quits say the labor market is exceptionally strong. Openings say it is blazingly hot. Which one is right has big implications for appropriate Fed policy. Line chart showing quits rate in blue and the openings rate
Layoffs remain extraordinarily low -- well below any prepandemic level. (Note I'm showing this chart two ways -- one with the raw data and the other without the extreme pandemic levels, which obscure what's been happening recently.) Area chart showing layoffs per month, in millions.Same chart, but this time without the data from March and Ap

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More from @bencasselman

Ben Casselman Profile picture
Jan 25
The U.S. economy slowed in the final three months of the year, but only because the Q3 number was so strong -- the 3.3% growth rate in Q4 was well above expectations and certainly offered no hints of a brewing recession. (Belated charts thread)
Image
This is not a case where the volatile components of G.D.P. made a weak quarter look strong, as sometimes happens. Measures of underlying demand were also very strong.
Image
Image
For all the predictions of a recession, G.D.P. growth actually *accelerated* in 2023, and topped the prepandemic average growth rate as well. Image
Read 4 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
Jan 3
Job openings, quits and layoffs all edged down slightly in November. Consistent with a gradually cooling labor market, but definitely no sign things are falling off a cliff. #JOLTS
Data: bls.gov/news.release/j…
There were 8.8 million job openings on the last day of November. That's down a touch from October, but only because October was revised up. Big picture: Openings are trending down (and quite quickly, at that), but are still high by historical standards. #JOLTS Image
The number of job openings per unemployed worker actually ticked up in November (because unemployment fell), but ignore the noise. The labor market is becoming more balanced, though the ratio is (again) high relative to the prepandemic period. Image
Read 9 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
Sep 1, 2023
The U.S. economy added 187,000 jobs in August and the unemployment rate rose to 3.8%.
Data:
Full coverage: bls.gov/news.release/e…
nytimes.com/live/2023/09/0…
June/July revised down by combined 110,000 jobs.
The big increase in unemployment is mostly for "good" reasons: More people working, but also more people *looking* for work. Labor force grew by 736,000. Participation rate up by 0.2 percentage points.
Read 13 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
Jul 7, 2023
The U.S. economy added 209k jobs in June and the unemployment rate edged back down to 3.6%.
#jobsday
Data:
Full coverage: https://t.co/JfXzKGVrCqbls.gov/news.release/e…
nytimes.com/live/2023/07/0…
Modest downward revisions to both April and May, by a combined 110k jobs.
Average earnings rose by 12 cents an hour, or 0.4 percent. Earnings are up 4.4 percent from a year ago.
Read 13 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
May 5, 2023
U.S. employers added 253k jobs in April, defying (yet again) predictions of a slowdown. The unemployment rate ticked back down to 3.4%.
Data: bls.gov/news.release/e…
Full coverage: nytimes.com/live/2023/05/0…
Notably February and March both revised down, by a combined 149k jobs.
Average hourly earnings stronger than expected -- up 0.5% from March, 4.4% from a year earlier. Consistent with the ECI data showing little slowdown in wage growth.
Read 6 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
May 3, 2023
As expected, the Fed raised interest rates by another quarter point, its tenth increase in a bit more than a year. Rates are now the highest they've been since 2007, before the global financial crisis.
Statement: federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pre…
Full coverage: nytimes.com/live/2023/05/0…
March statement: "The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate..."
May statement: "In determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time..."
In response to question from @jeannasmialek, Powell says that, "A decision on a pause was not made today." But he says the removal of the "anticipates" language was a "meaningful change."
Read 5 tweets

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