Thread by @Taniel

Every state has critical races on the ballot — & some are facing a perfect storm where so much is on the line at once.

So I'm starting this ongoing thread of all states, to encapsulate as many stakes as I can for a state within 280 characters. As I did in 2020. Let’s go! 🧵

1️⃣ I have to start with Michigan

—Ballot measure to overturn abortion ban
—Another to protect elections system
—Supreme court may flip
—Election denier up for SoS
—Governorship, AG, trifecta all at stake
—Can Dems flip state Sen. for 1st time in decades?
—Central for U.S. House

2️⃣ Arizona:

—May decide U.S. Senate
—Key House races
—Election deniers up for Gov, AG, SoS
—Measures to weaken ballot initiatives, tighten voter ID
—Measure on tuition for immigrants
—Prosecutor of nation's 4th biggest county
—PSC flips?
—Horne's comeback?
—🎇for school boards

3️⃣ Colorado:

—Measure to legalize psychedelics
—Dems aim to keep Gov & legislature for trifecta
—Dems defend U.S. senator
—Brand new House seat
—State & local measures on housing
—Measure to lower income tax again
—Contested AG, SoS races
—At least 1 election denier for clerk

4️⃣ South Dakota:

—Could expand Medicaid (! lit's atest red state initiative on this)
—May legalize marijuana
—Also, Noem seeks a 2nd term

5️⃣ North Dakota

—Is also voting on legalizing marijuana
—And also on instituting new term limit rules

INTERMISSION: If you're reading through this thread, it is all fueling from this guide I created of local, state, and federal races to track next week. As of now, 491 and counting!

We'll be updating it with results next week, so bookmark and share too. boltsmag.org/whats-on-the-b…

6️⃣Nevada:

—Critical race for U.S. Senate
—Most House races competitive
—Election denier is up for SoS
—GOP aims to flip Gov, break Dem trifecta
—Open AG & controller races
—Far-right bids for treasurer
—Adopt ranked-choice voting?
—Increase the minimum wage?
—Adopt a state ERA?

7️⃣ Connecticut

—Dems sweating a blue House seat
—Dem Gov and senator seek re-election
—Measure to institute early voting
—Republican associated with conspiracies in SoS

8️⃣ Rhode Island

—Dems really sweating another blue House seat
—Another Dem Gov seeks re-election

9️⃣ Florida

—DeSantis & Rubio seek re-election
—Right aims for school board gains
—5 supreme court retentions
—Specials for Pinellas prosecutor, Duval sheriff
—A few House CDs (in gerrymandered map)
—AG, Agriculture Commiss, CFO: can Ds hold any statewide?
—Local transit measures

1️⃣0️⃣ Alaska:

—It's round 2 of Peltola-Palin-Begich
—Senator Murkowski faces MAGA
—Measure to call constitutional convention proxy for abortion
—GOP governor seeks re-election
—Always watch Alaska's legislative coalitions given the complex coalitions; can GOP grab control?

1️⃣1️⃣ Indiana:

—SoS candidate rode the Big Lie to GOP nomination
—Indy's Dem prosecutor clashes with police unions
—The local school board candidate who defended Nazis

1️⃣2️⃣ Wyoming:

—Election denier is running for SoS unopposed
—Measure to increase judges' retirement age

1️⃣3️⃣ Maine:

—LePage attempts comeback in Gov race
—Can Dems keep legislature (& trifecta)?
—Tough Dem re-elect in #ME02
—Portland vote on higher minimum wage...
—... and on tenant protections...
—... and on setting up new governance system...
—... and on proportional RCV.

1️⃣4️⃣ Virginia
—Hotly contested House races in #VA02 & #VA07
—Some local measures, e.g. $ WMTA in Arlington
[The real action here is in 2023]

1️⃣5️⃣ West Virginia
—Measures to strengthen the legislature's powers vis-a-vis the judiciary...
—... and also toward the board of education

Intermission #2!

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1️⃣6️⃣ Utah

—What's up with Lee vs. McMullin?
—Election denier wants to run Salt Lake elections
—More local battles for Navaja representation
—Watch far-right in legislature

1️⃣7️⃣ Hawaii

—Housing at issue in council races
—In Hawaii Co, youth commission with ppl as young as 14?

1️⃣8️⃣ Massachusetts

—Dems can regain trifecta via Gov race
—Measure on drivers' licenses for immigrants
—Increase taxes for transport + ed?
—'Joe Arpaio of the East' seeks reelection
—Reformers target Plymouth DA
—Cape Cod sheriff big for immigration
—Election denier aims for SoS

1️⃣9️⃣ Ohio

—JD Vance vs Tim Ryan, enough said
—Supreme court majority (& 3 court seats) at stake
—GOP Gov, AG, SoS seek re-election
—Measure would expand bail-pretrial detention
—Another would bar noncitizen voting
—Key House races, incl. longtime-Dem & gerrymander-target Kaptur

2️⃣0️⃣ Maryland

—May legalize marijuana
—Dems can regain governorship, *&* trifecta
—Far-right sheriff seeks reelect in Frederick
—Howard Co measure on sanctuary status
—Open comptroller race
—Measures on eligibility rules for candidates
—Intriguing school boards (eg. Montgomery)

2️⃣1️⃣ Arkansas

—State may become 2nd in South to legalize marijuana
—Conservatives target a supreme court justice
—Measure would make future ballot measures trickier to pass
—GOP favored for state offices

2️⃣2️⃣ Idaho

—Far-right candidate for AG
—Advisory measure on a flat tax

2️⃣3️⃣ Kansas

—Dem Gov up for re-election in red state
—Relatedly, can GOP gain trifecta?
—6 of 7 state justices up for retention (!!)
—Tough re-elect for Dem Rep. in #KS03
—Kobach makes comeback (in AG race)
—Measure on recalling sheriffs
—Appointed Dem Treasurer wants full term

2️⃣4️⃣ New Hampshire

—Hassan up for Senate re-election vs Bolduc
—Both U.S. House races worth watching
(Slate of far-right candidates across those)
—Can GOP keep both legislative chambers...
—... and NH's unusual executive council?
—GOP Gov up too
—A couple of prosecutor races

2️⃣5️⃣ Missouri
—State may legalize marijuana
—Only statewide Dem office could flip (Auditor)
—GOP defends open Senate race
—Kansas City affordable housing measure
—Dems defend head of St. Louis County

2️⃣6️⃣ Oklahoma
—Dems hope to upset Governor
—Big DA race in Oklahoma County

2️⃣7️⃣ Washington D.C.

—Measure to end tipped minimum wage, again
—Dems favored in general elections for city offices
—At-large council seat tests progressive incumbent
—Competitive ed board races
(Also, just 2nd cycle where anyone can vote from prison! boltsmag.org/washington-d-c…)

2️⃣8️⃣ Vermont

—Measures to enshrine abortion in constitution
—... and remove 'slavery clause' from constitution
—Election denier running for SoS
—GOP Gov runs for reelect
—Can Dems win leg. supermajorities?
—Dems aim to regain AG, keep LG
—The 2nd Dem U.S. Senator in VT history?

2️⃣9️⃣ Montana
—Conservatives targeting a supreme court justice
—Zinke's House seat
—An anti-abortion referendum
—Mandate warrants for electronic searches?

3️⃣0️⃣New Jersey
—Dems defend bunch of House seats
—Can GOP flip Cumberland & Gloucester local gov?
[Lots more in odd years.]

3️⃣1️⃣llinois:

—Can GOP flip Supreme Court? 2 seats at play
—Measure to enshrine collective bargaining rights
—Dems sweat some House races
—Dem Gov, Senator, AG all seek 2nd terms
—Giannoulias comeback bid
—Dems hope to flip DuPage Co.
—Evanstan votes on adopting ranked-choice

3️⃣2️⃣ Nebraska

—GOP bid for supermajority wld have big policy effects
—Omaha's U.S. House seat competitive, as ever
—GOP defending many state offices
—Measure would increase the minimum wage
—Another would require IDs for voting
—Important DA races in Douglas/Omaha & Lancaster

3️⃣3️⃣ Kentucky

—Measure to block courts from protecting abortion
—Anti-abortion lawmaker runs for supreme court
—Small Frankfort judgeship has outsized role (& $$)
—Mayoral races in Lexington & Louisville

3️⃣4️⃣ Delaware

—Reform-y AG seeks re-elect
—Some interesting leg battles

3️⃣5️⃣ Alabama

—Measures to remove 'slavery clause' from constitution
—... & tp limit Gov's power to reprieve death penalty
—... & to enable judges to grant bail less
—Conspiracist favored to win SoS
—GOP defends statewide offices like Gov
—Open supreme court seat
—DA in Mobile

3️⃣6️⃣ Tennessee

—Measures to remove 'slavery clause' from constitution
—... and codify 'right to work'
—GOP gerrymandered itself extra House seat

3️⃣7️⃣South Carolina

—For Superintendent of Ed, vouchers advocate vs head of teachers' org
—GOP Gov is up, plus other state offices

3️⃣8️⃣ Iowa

—Watching 3 of 4 U.S. House seats
—So, how competitive is U.S. Senate race?
—Reformer up for Polk prosecutor (Des Moines)
—Measure to strengthen gun rights
—GOP aims to keep trifecta
—Dems hope to keep Auditor, Treasurer, AG
—SoS race in context of new restrictions

3️⃣9️⃣ New Mexico

—Election denier running for SOS
—TWO contested supreme court seats
—Both parties eying U.S. House seats (clearer target for Dems)
—Dems defend Governor, legislature, & trifecta...
—... and open AG & Treasurer spots
—Important sheriff races in 2 largest counties

4️⃣0️⃣Washington

—Far-right seeks sheriff offices
—Dem/Indy SoS race
—#WA08 & #WA03 critical for US House
—Seattle voting on various election reforms
—Few counties voting on ranked-choice
—Reform stakes for King Co. (Seattle)'s next prosecutor
—Also watch Spokane prosecutor

4️⃣1️⃣ Minnesota

—Election denier running for SoS
—Clash on reform for Minneapolis prosecutor
—State Senate (& House) perpetually competitive
—Dems defend governorship too
—Can either party win trifecta?
—Tight AG re-elect for Ellison
—Watch a couple of U.S. House seats

4️⃣2️⃣ New York

—A (the?) major U.S. House battleground
—THE Gov race you've heard about that got close
—Dems also defending their leg. supermajorities
—Schumer, James running for re-elect too
—Measure on green bonds
—Local vote on racial equity in NYC

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4️⃣3️⃣ Louisiana (Nov + Dec)

—Measures to remove 'slavery clause' (with unexpected confusion)
—... bar noncitizen voting
—... limit NoLa property assessment
—GOP defends Senate seat

4️⃣4️⃣ Mississippi

—Rare contested race for appellate court…

(In both, lot more in odd years.)

4️⃣5️⃣ Texas

—Key to US House
—Abbott (vs Beto) & AG Paxton re-elect
—5 judge seats on 2 high courts
—Right pushes for schlol boards
—State House seats
—Big DA races: Hays, Dallas, Bexar, Tarrant
—County gov & court judges: Tarrant, Harris, Dallas
—Local: weed votes, Austin mayor

4️⃣6️⃣ California, part 1

—Sea of House races
—Measure to codify abortion
—Clean vehicles tax?
—Dems defend: Gov, AG, LG, SoS, Controller
—Ed debate in superintendent race
—Many fireworks for school boards
—DA races with reform stakes: SF, Alameda
—Democracy vouchers in Oakland?

Calif., part 2 (I’m cheating)

—Scandal-ridden LA Sheriff (+ oversight measure)
—Bass vs. Caruso
—Tons more in LA! judges, city attorney, controller, left targets in council + board
—Housing: LA, Pasadena, Sacramento, SF
—Santa Clara, Long Beach, Oakland mayors
—San Diego sheriff

4️⃣7️⃣ North Carolina

—will Supreme Court flip GOP?
—Beasley vs Budd
—Key House races
—GOP reaches for legislative supermajority
—GOP ex-sheriff in Wake (Raleigh) tries comeback
—Sheriffs known for racism want more time in Alamance & Columbus
—DA race in Forsyth/Winston-Salem

4️⃣8️⃣Pennsylvania

—Fetterman vs. Oz, with Senate at stake
—Highest-profile Gov race ft. an election denier
(Identity of next SoS on line here race too.)
—Watch battle for state legislature
—The bizarre situation in #PA12, ft a new Mike Doyle
—GOP targets other U.S. House seats

4️⃣9️⃣ Oregon

—Can GOP flip Gov?
—Can Dems keep legislature + trifecta?
—Big U.S. House battleground
—Measures to remove 'slavery clause'
—... restrict gun ownership
—... state health care right
—Local measures on RCV, banning psilocybin
—Portland: council + measure on gov system

5️⃣0️⃣ Wisconsin

—Critical Governor race
—Barnes challenges Sen. Johnson
—AG race key for election prosecutions, abortion
—Race for SoS, which has limited powers... for now
—GOP aims for supermajorities after gerrymanders

Look ahead: a HUGE Supreme Court race in April.

5️⃣1️⃣ Georgia

—Warnock vs. Walker: enough said
—Round 2 of Kemp vs. Abrams
—GOP defends AG, SoS, Labor Comm.
—Election denier for LG
—A couple of U.S. House races to track
—Fulton's commission
—GOP favored with gerrymandered legislative maps
—... Runoffs???

The end! (For now.)