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Nov 1, 2022 45 tweets 10 min read Read on X
Every state has critical races on the ballot — & some are facing a perfect storm where so much is on the line at once.

So I'm starting this ongoing thread of all states, to encapsulate as many stakes as I can for a state within 280 characters. As I did in 2020. Let’s go! 🧵
1️⃣ I have to start with Michigan

—Ballot measure to overturn abortion ban
—Another to protect elections system
—Supreme court may flip
—Election denier up for SoS
—Governorship, AG, trifecta all at stake
—Can Dems flip state Sen. for 1st time in decades?
—Central for U.S. House
2️⃣ Arizona:

—May decide U.S. Senate
—Key House races
—Election deniers up for Gov, AG, SoS
—Measures to weaken ballot initiatives, tighten voter ID
—Measure on tuition for immigrants
—Prosecutor of nation's 4th biggest county
—PSC flips?
—Horne's comeback?
—🎇for school boards
3️⃣ Colorado:

—Measure to legalize psychedelics
—Dems aim to keep Gov & legislature for trifecta
—Dems defend U.S. senator
—Brand new House seat
—State & local measures on housing
—Measure to lower income tax again
—Contested AG, SoS races
—At least 1 election denier for clerk
4️⃣ South Dakota:

—Could expand Medicaid (! lit's atest red state initiative on this)
—May legalize marijuana
—Also, Noem seeks a 2nd term

5️⃣ North Dakota

—Is also voting on legalizing marijuana
—And also on instituting new term limit rules
INTERMISSION: If you're reading through this thread, it is all fueling from this guide I created of local, state, and federal races to track next week. As of now, 491 and counting!

We'll be updating it with results next week, so bookmark and share too. boltsmag.org/whats-on-the-b…
6️⃣Nevada:

—Critical race for U.S. Senate
—Most House races competitive
—Election denier is up for SoS
—GOP aims to flip Gov, break Dem trifecta
—Open AG & controller races
—Far-right bids for treasurer
—Adopt ranked-choice voting?
—Increase the minimum wage?
—Adopt a state ERA?
7️⃣ Connecticut

—Dems sweating a blue House seat
—Dem Gov and senator seek re-election
—Measure to institute early voting
—Republican associated with conspiracies in SoS

8️⃣ Rhode Island

—Dems really sweating another blue House seat
—Another Dem Gov seeks re-election
9️⃣ Florida

—DeSantis & Rubio seek re-election
—Right aims for school board gains
—5 supreme court retentions
—Specials for Pinellas prosecutor, Duval sheriff
—A few House CDs (in gerrymandered map)
—AG, Agriculture Commiss, CFO: can Ds hold any statewide?
—Local transit measures
1️⃣0️⃣ Alaska:

—It's round 2 of Peltola-Palin-Begich
—Senator Murkowski faces MAGA
—Measure to call constitutional convention proxy for abortion
—GOP governor seeks re-election
—Always watch Alaska's legislative coalitions given the complex coalitions; can GOP grab control?
1️⃣1️⃣ Indiana:

—SoS candidate rode the Big Lie to GOP nomination
—Indy's Dem prosecutor clashes with police unions
—The local school board candidate who defended Nazis

1️⃣2️⃣ Wyoming:

—Election denier is running for SoS unopposed
—Measure to increase judges' retirement age
1️⃣3️⃣ Maine:

—LePage attempts comeback in Gov race
—Can Dems keep legislature (& trifecta)?
—Tough Dem re-elect in #ME02
—Portland vote on higher minimum wage...
—... and on tenant protections...
—... and on setting up new governance system...
—... and on proportional RCV.
1️⃣4️⃣ Virginia
—Hotly contested House races in #VA02 & #VA07
—Some local measures, e.g. $ WMTA in Arlington
[The real action here is in 2023]

1️⃣5️⃣ West Virginia
—Measures to strengthen the legislature's powers vis-a-vis the judiciary...
—... and also toward the board of education
Intermission #2!

If you've made it this far down the thread... well, do give us a follow at @boltsmag, where we cover elections, politics & power from the local up.

And you can sign-up for our free newsletter too to have eyes on what we're covering: boltsmag.org/newsletter
1️⃣6️⃣ Utah

—What's up with Lee vs. McMullin?
—Election denier wants to run Salt Lake elections
—More local battles for Navaja representation
—Watch far-right in legislature

1️⃣7️⃣ Hawaii

—Housing at issue in council races
—In Hawaii Co, youth commission with ppl as young as 14?
1️⃣8️⃣ Massachusetts

—Dems can regain trifecta via Gov race
—Measure on drivers' licenses for immigrants
—Increase taxes for transport + ed?
—'Joe Arpaio of the East' seeks reelection
—Reformers target Plymouth DA
—Cape Cod sheriff big for immigration
—Election denier aims for SoS
1️⃣9️⃣ Ohio

—JD Vance vs Tim Ryan, enough said
—Supreme court majority (& 3 court seats) at stake
—GOP Gov, AG, SoS seek re-election
—Measure would expand bail-pretrial detention
—Another would bar noncitizen voting
—Key House races, incl. longtime-Dem & gerrymander-target Kaptur
2️⃣0️⃣ Maryland

—May legalize marijuana
—Dems can regain governorship, *&* trifecta
—Far-right sheriff seeks reelect in Frederick
—Howard Co measure on sanctuary status
—Open comptroller race
—Measures on eligibility rules for candidates
—Intriguing school boards (eg. Montgomery)
2️⃣1️⃣ Arkansas

—State may become 2nd in South to legalize marijuana
—Conservatives target a supreme court justice
—Measure would make future ballot measures trickier to pass
—GOP favored for state offices

2️⃣2️⃣ Idaho

—Far-right candidate for AG
—Advisory measure on a flat tax
2️⃣3️⃣ Kansas

—Dem Gov up for re-election in red state
—Relatedly, can GOP gain trifecta?
—6 of 7 state justices up for retention (!!)
—Tough re-elect for Dem Rep. in #KS03
—Kobach makes comeback (in AG race)
—Measure on recalling sheriffs
—Appointed Dem Treasurer wants full term
2️⃣4️⃣ New Hampshire

—Hassan up for Senate re-election vs Bolduc
—Both U.S. House races worth watching
(Slate of far-right candidates across those)
—Can GOP keep both legislative chambers...
—... and NH's unusual executive council?
—GOP Gov up too
—A couple of prosecutor races
2️⃣5️⃣ Missouri
—State may legalize marijuana
—Only statewide Dem office could flip (Auditor)
—GOP defends open Senate race
—Kansas City affordable housing measure
—Dems defend head of St. Louis County

2️⃣6️⃣ Oklahoma
—Dems hope to upset Governor
—Big DA race in Oklahoma County
2️⃣7️⃣ Washington D.C.

—Measure to end tipped minimum wage, again
—Dems favored in general elections for city offices
—At-large council seat tests progressive incumbent
—Competitive ed board races
(Also, just 2nd cycle where anyone can vote from prison! boltsmag.org/washington-d-c…)
2️⃣8️⃣ Vermont

—Measures to enshrine abortion in constitution
—... and remove 'slavery clause' from constitution
—Election denier running for SoS
—GOP Gov runs for reelect
—Can Dems win leg. supermajorities?
—Dems aim to regain AG, keep LG
—The 2nd Dem U.S. Senator in VT history?
2️⃣9️⃣ Montana
—Conservatives targeting a supreme court justice
—Zinke's House seat
—An anti-abortion referendum
—Mandate warrants for electronic searches?

3️⃣0️⃣New Jersey
—Dems defend bunch of House seats
—Can GOP flip Cumberland & Gloucester local gov?
[Lots more in odd years.]
3️⃣1️⃣llinois:

—Can GOP flip Supreme Court? 2 seats at play
—Measure to enshrine collective bargaining rights
—Dems sweat some House races
—Dem Gov, Senator, AG all seek 2nd terms
—Giannoulias comeback bid
—Dems hope to flip DuPage Co.
—Evanstan votes on adopting ranked-choice
3️⃣2️⃣ Nebraska

—GOP bid for supermajority wld have big policy effects
—Omaha's U.S. House seat competitive, as ever
—GOP defending many state offices
—Measure would increase the minimum wage
—Another would require IDs for voting
—Important DA races in Douglas/Omaha & Lancaster
3️⃣3️⃣ Kentucky

—Measure to block courts from protecting abortion
—Anti-abortion lawmaker runs for supreme court
—Small Frankfort judgeship has outsized role (& $$)
—Mayoral races in Lexington & Louisville

3️⃣4️⃣ Delaware

—Reform-y AG seeks re-elect
—Some interesting leg battles
3️⃣5️⃣ Alabama

—Measures to remove 'slavery clause' from constitution
—... & tp limit Gov's power to reprieve death penalty
—... & to enable judges to grant bail less
—Conspiracist favored to win SoS
—GOP defends statewide offices like Gov
—Open supreme court seat
—DA in Mobile
3️⃣6️⃣ Tennessee

—Measures to remove 'slavery clause' from constitution
—... and codify 'right to work'
—GOP gerrymandered itself extra House seat

3️⃣7️⃣South Carolina

—For Superintendent of Ed, vouchers advocate vs head of teachers' org
—GOP Gov is up, plus other state offices
3️⃣8️⃣ Iowa

—Watching 3 of 4 U.S. House seats
—So, how competitive is U.S. Senate race?
—Reformer up for Polk prosecutor (Des Moines)
—Measure to strengthen gun rights
—GOP aims to keep trifecta
—Dems hope to keep Auditor, Treasurer, AG
—SoS race in context of new restrictions
3️⃣9️⃣ New Mexico

—Election denier running for SOS
—TWO contested supreme court seats
—Both parties eying U.S. House seats (clearer target for Dems)
—Dems defend Governor, legislature, & trifecta...
—... and open AG & Treasurer spots
—Important sheriff races in 2 largest counties
4️⃣0️⃣Washington

—Far-right seeks sheriff offices
—Dem/Indy SoS race
#WA08 & #WA03 critical for US House
—Seattle voting on various election reforms
—Few counties voting on ranked-choice
—Reform stakes for King Co. (Seattle)'s next prosecutor
—Also watch Spokane prosecutor
4️⃣1️⃣ Minnesota

—Election denier running for SoS
—Clash on reform for Minneapolis prosecutor
—State Senate (& House) perpetually competitive
—Dems defend governorship too
—Can either party win trifecta?
—Tight AG re-elect for Ellison
—Watch a couple of U.S. House seats
4️⃣2️⃣ New York

—A (the?) major U.S. House battleground
—THE Gov race you've heard about that got close
—Dems also defending their leg. supermajorities
—Schumer, James running for re-elect too
—Measure on green bonds
—Local vote on racial equity in NYC
INTERMISSION #3: If you’ve read thru #42, take a moment to follow @boltsmag & sign-up. boltsmag.org/newsletter

Also: Readers help us keep going & put this work together. Consider supporting us if you can (donation will be matched thru end of year!): pico.link/bolts?short_co…
4️⃣3️⃣ Louisiana (Nov + Dec)

—Measures to remove 'slavery clause' (with unexpected confusion)
—... bar noncitizen voting
—... limit NoLa property assessment
—GOP defends Senate seat

4️⃣4️⃣ Mississippi

—Rare contested race for appellate court…

(In both, lot more in odd years.)
4️⃣5️⃣ Texas

—Key to US House
—Abbott (vs Beto) & AG Paxton re-elect
—5 judge seats on 2 high courts
—Right pushes for schlol boards
—State House seats
—Big DA races: Hays, Dallas, Bexar, Tarrant
—County gov & court judges: Tarrant, Harris, Dallas
—Local: weed votes, Austin mayor
4️⃣6️⃣ California, part 1

—Sea of House races
—Measure to codify abortion
—Clean vehicles tax?
—Dems defend: Gov, AG, LG, SoS, Controller
—Ed debate in superintendent race
—Many fireworks for school boards
—DA races with reform stakes: SF, Alameda
—Democracy vouchers in Oakland?
Calif., part 2 (I’m cheating)

—Scandal-ridden LA Sheriff (+ oversight measure)
—Bass vs. Caruso
—Tons more in LA! judges, city attorney, controller, left targets in council + board
—Housing: LA, Pasadena, Sacramento, SF
—Santa Clara, Long Beach, Oakland mayors
—San Diego sheriff
4️⃣7️⃣ North Carolina

—will Supreme Court flip GOP?
—Beasley vs Budd
—Key House races
—GOP reaches for legislative supermajority
—GOP ex-sheriff in Wake (Raleigh) tries comeback
—Sheriffs known for racism want more time in Alamance & Columbus
—DA race in Forsyth/Winston-Salem
4️⃣8️⃣Pennsylvania

—Fetterman vs. Oz, with Senate at stake
—Highest-profile Gov race ft. an election denier
(Identity of next SoS on line here race too.)
—Watch battle for state legislature
—The bizarre situation in #PA12, ft a new Mike Doyle
—GOP targets other U.S. House seats
4️⃣9️⃣ Oregon

—Can GOP flip Gov?
—Can Dems keep legislature + trifecta?
—Big U.S. House battleground
—Measures to remove 'slavery clause'
—... restrict gun ownership
—... state health care right
—Local measures on RCV, banning psilocybin
—Portland: council + measure on gov system
5️⃣0️⃣ Wisconsin

—Critical Governor race
—Barnes challenges Sen. Johnson
—AG race key for election prosecutions, abortion
—Race for SoS, which has limited powers... for now
—GOP aims for supermajorities after gerrymanders

Look ahead: a HUGE Supreme Court race in April.
5️⃣1️⃣ Georgia

—Warnock vs. Walker: enough said
—Round 2 of Kemp vs. Abrams
—GOP defends AG, SoS, Labor Comm.
—Election denier for LG
—A couple of U.S. House races to track
—Fulton's commission
—GOP favored with gerrymandered legislative maps
—... Runoffs???

The end! (For now.)

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More from @Taniel

Sep 5
JUST IN: France has a new Prime Minister.

Macron chose Michel Barnier, a conservative politician from the LR party.

This makes explicit the long-tacit alliance between Macronists + conservatives. *And* Macron is choosing someone he thinks the far-right (RN) won't bring down.
Step-back: Left coalition (NFP) won most seats on July 7 (roughly 190). But a priority for Macron was to avoid NFP governing.

Barnier's LR (right) have roughly 40 seats. Macronists only have roughly 170. Even combined, that's far from the majority of 277.

RN has 140.
Trick is: Even if you don't have an affirmative majority in France, you can (mostly) govern as long as there isn't a majority *AGAINST* you, a majority willing to depose you.

Macron was trying to find someone who'd avoid being taken down (=it's called "being censored").
Read 10 tweets
Aug 30
This month was maybe the best stretch of content since we launched @boltsmag 2 years ago.

I'm really proud of all of these stories, & how they're bringing so many different facets of local politics, and their high stakes on criminal justice & voting rights, to life! ↓ Image
1. Arizona voters face major choices in November, on whether election deniers will take over some of the most important election offices in the state — nay, in the country.

@alex_burness laid it all out: boltsmag.org/maricopa-count…
@alex_burness 2. Michigan's supreme court issued a big ruling for direct democracy, helping shield ballot measures from legislative encroachment.

But it was also a reminder of the stakes of the November elections, writes @yeargain, since the ruling was 4-3

boltsmag.org/direct-democra…
Read 14 tweets
Aug 29
New Bloomberg/Morning Consult polls (RVs here):

Wisconsin: Harris 52/44
Pennsylvania: Harris 51/47
Nevada: Harris 49/45
Michigan: Harris 49/46
[that's 270+]
Georgia: Harris 49/47
North Carolina: Harris 49/47
Arizona: 48/48
The article only gives the margins among likely voters, take or remove one point depending on the state, but not the numbers in an easy way. (link via @JoshuaGreen) bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Morning Consult's national poll has Harris up 4%. Other than WI these are all within a couple of points of what you'd expect out of 4%. Separate polls with margins of errors & discrete polling errors can't align exactly, hence you throw them together!

Read 4 tweets
Aug 27
Political situation in France is fairly jaw-dropping.

1. Elections were 7 weeks ago, & in France transition is quick. But still no new government, & it's not just bc there's no solution: Macron stalled, then announced a bizarre "Olympic truce," & is now stalling again.
2. The PM + Cabinet resigned promptly... but remain in office. There's something called "regime of ordinary affairs" in France, where a resigning Cabinet just does routine stuff. But this has been longest such regime ever in France. & resigned Cabinet working on next budget.
3. Ministers aren't supposed to vote in Parliament while in Cabinet. The outgoing Ministers had tended resignation and were sworn in to new Assembly, & voted in Assembly's July leadership elections... but a month later they're still serving in the Cabinet!!
Read 6 tweets
Aug 25
Things remain stalled in France since July 7th elections.

Those saw Macron's party lose roughly 100 seats, & so any semblance of majority or plurality. And yet his outgoing cabinet remains in office despite ostensibly resigning in July.

But things moving more quickly now. ⬇️
No bloc or coalition got ANYTHING near a majority (277). An unprecedented situation in this institutional regime.

Left coalition (NFP), you'll recall, won most seats on July 7—around 190.

Macronists ≈170. Far-right ≈ 140. Conservatives ≈40.
The outgoing Macronist PM, Gabriel Attal promptly resigned, as is tradition—but Macron signaled he had no interest in a transition, & declared a weird "Olympic truce." Attal has still be in office—this is longest a resigning Cabinet has been allowed to govern, ever in France.
Read 13 tweets
Aug 13
BFD: Arizona officials announce that an abortion rights measure, the Arizona Abortion Acess Act, *will* be on the November ballot.

It would enshrine abortion rights in the constitution.

If you care about this measure—here are 3 more related AZ elections you must know about. ⬇️
1️⃣ Remember when the Arizona Supreme Court revived a 19th century abortion ban earlier this year?

Two of the justices who participated in that decision are up for retention this fall.

boltsmag.org/your-state-by-…
2️⃣ In Arizona’s biggest county, there’s a big prosecutor election where the candidates differ starkly on abortion.

The GOP incumbent was prosecutor tapped by the Senate Republicans in 2018 during the Kavanaugh hearings to ask questions of Ford. boltsmag.org/arizona-aborti…
Read 5 tweets

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