Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 1 9 tweets 3 min read
Given all the "it sends the wrong message" debate around this proposal.

People are missing the underlying money & maintenance reasons the USAF wants to do this F-15C change out at Kadena AFB, Okinawa.

Air Logistics🧵

1/
The 1st F-15C's were delivered into USAF service in September 1979 (see link).

We are in October 2022, AKA 43 years ago.

Using F-15C's in 2022 is akin to the 1979 USAF using a P-36 Mohawk from 1936.

F-15C's are _OLD_.

2/
globalsecurity.org/military/syste… Image
Kadena AFB in Okinawa is right on the Pacific ocean and the salt air simply ages air frames faster.

You really don't want to base a late 30 to 40 something year old airframes in a base laden with salt water air

The accelerated corrosion from salt air causes airframe cracking
3/ ImageImage
....which is one of the reasons why carrier planes are built as robustly as they are.

F-15C's _ARE NOT_ carrier planes.

Additionally, the original equipment vendor base for F-15C's is extinct.

4/
There is a small base of specialty vendors that charges huge amounts for buys of 'legacy' air frame parts that take a minimum of a year to provide a replacement part for a lot of reasons including converting 1970's paper & mylar files to CATIA electronic data, tooling set up
5/
...1st article testing approval and intellectual property licencing of down level parts in subassemblies.

The USAF really does need to move its remaining F-15C's to places less prone to salt air aging until there are enough F-35 & NGAD to replace them.

They'll fall apart

6/
...too quickly if they don't.

The other money reasons to go with maintenance is the rotation of a couple of squadrons of F-35 or F-22 every few months through Kadena "spreads the salt air aging" across the 5th Generation fighter fleet.

7/
Plus the USAF doesn't have to pay dependent family permanent change of station costs.

Whether this six-month TDY versus permanent basing 'cost savings' actually does so or simply results higher training costs to replace more mid-career fighter pilots & maintainer...

8/
...losses to the airlines I'll leave to others.

The actual costs of military basing is never simple because people aren't as predictable as air frames.

9/9 End.

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More from @TrentTelenko

Oct 30
A whole lot of people on Twitter are losing their minds over this boat-bomb video and making comparisons to the WW2 RN air raid on Taranto.

Just...no.

What we are seeing is the 21st century technological barriers to entry to WW2 naval special forces capability
WW2 history 🧵
1/
...being lowered for 21st century 3rd tier naval powers.

I did an earlier thread on the WW2 US Navy/USAAF/OSS boat-drone. Now I'm going to post a series of still from the point of view of of a boat-drone TV screen for you to compare to that video.



2/
This photo clip is from early in the 1944 target run on the 4,000 ton tramp freighter SS San Paulo in the Caribbean.

Note the compass heading arrow in the image.
3/
Read 21 tweets
Oct 30
Gen. Kather just proved he shouldn't be one.👇

It isn't that Putin "...fail to recognize the strength of the Ukrainian Army," than everyone lies to him.

It is the fundamental nature of a multi-decade strongman government that everyone around Putin lies to him for their own
1/5
...power agendas.

It has always been that way.

And the more a strongman tries to centralize control. The greater the incentives to that smaller and smaller clique of power to cut off the strongman from reality for their own power agenda's.

2/5
The same thing is happening right now in China to Chairman Xi.

This has fundamentally bad implications for the future Vis-à-vis a Chinese attempt to invade Taiwan.

Rational military power calculations require objective assessments that simply will not happen...

3/5
Read 5 tweets
Oct 29
Multiple sources are reporting that what appears to be a series of Ukrainian boat-drones have struck multiple Russian naval targets in Sevastopol harbor.

Videos of a Russian frigate being stalked by a drone have been released by Ukraine & claims...

Historical Boat-Drone 🧵
1/
...of a Russian landing ship tank also being struck have been made.

This footage means the Black Sea fleet has lost another long range SAM platform.

This Project 11356 Grigorovich-class FFG & Moskva represent 2/3 of all such ships in its fleet.

2/
The idea of boat drones being used as anti-ship missiles is not new.

In February 2017 the Iranian backed Houthi Rebels used a Boat-Drone to crippled the Saudi Frigate al Madinah.

3/
thedrive.com/the-war-zone/7…
Read 34 tweets
Oct 19
This is the single most important piece of data in this @wartranslated 🧵

The Russian objective in the attacks on Kyiv isn't terror. It is just a "side benefit."

The RFAF objective is suppression of air defenses (SEAD) by running AFU out of surface to air missiles!

SEAD🧵
1/
The Shaheed-136 are being fired at targets Ukraine has to defend and which forces the Ukrainian integrated air defense (IADS) to engage.

Power stations and power grid components in dense urban areas are on the top of that 'must defend' list.

2/
Ukraine has one of the densest IADS in the world outside of Moscow Oblast

Nobody has the necessary density of AAA defenses for a $20,000 loitering munition with a 40kg warhead against all the vulnerable fixed targets they can engage within a 1,200km range.

3/
Read 41 tweets
Oct 18
This is hugely vital logistical development in the Russo-Ukrainian War I've been looking to happen for a couple of months.

When you outsource key transportation consumable materials to foreign nations on a just-in-time basis.

Sanctions kill your transportation capability.
1/
This is my previous comment on that score.

2/
This is one of responses to that Sept 25 2022 thread that gives the industrial background to the Russian train bearing issue.

3/
Read 18 tweets
Oct 14
If the tweet below is true as far as the attack source. Russia is now getting to live by the rules it made inside Ukraine...

...and there will be a lot more attacks on the Russian power grid.

Ukraine can rebuild a whole lot of Alibaba drones into propeller cruise missiles.
1/4
Ukrainian repurposed Alibaba drones like this.

2/4
Read 4 tweets

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