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AndreasStenoLarsen Profile picture
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Nov 1 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Endnu engang har aftenens dækning på både TV2 og DR afsløret eklatant mangel på statistisk kundskab i prognosemageriet. Jammerlig justering af demografi/geografi i de første prognoser.

Så vidt jeg kan regne kommer Mette meget meget tæt på 90 mandater

#dkpol #dkmedier
Særligt justeringen af Danmarksdemokraterne var helt helt off. Exit-poll på lige omkring 7% er ikke helt skæv
Deres fejljustering af Danmarksdemokraterne er så pinagtig, at jeg mangler ord. Deres første prognoser kommer til at ramme 3.5-4%-point forkert. Det kan man kun gøre, hvis man ikke forstår sig på statistik.
Mette kan tælle til 90. Bør ikke kunne gå galt nu
Jeg stiller gerne op næste gang @DRNyheder .. I kunne godt trænge til lidt friske øjne på jeres statistiske arbejde
For den sags skyld også på @tv2danmark 😊
På Politiken gik der dog decideret komiske Ali i den. Træk lige luft ind @jarlner

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More from @AndreasSteno

AndreasStenoLarsen Profile picture
Nov 3
The Fed has a golden opportunity to give the middle finger to the "Fed put" narrative

A thread 1/n😱🤡
Powell basically reiterated that the Fed will keep inflation > stock market in its considerations for the next meetings despite clear signals of a substantially weakening economy

This is a BIG change of scenery from the 2010-2021 Fed

2/n
Most investment professionals have gotten used to almost automatic pivots, if the business cycle weakens enough (below 50 in ISM is pivot territory)...

But the tide has turned politically, which is a noteworthy development

3/n Image
Read 10 tweets
AndreasStenoLarsen Profile picture
Nov 1
As October is now past us, lets break down some of the most interesting developments in equity-space over the past month.

A thread 1/n
What a rebound in Dow! Would be fun if Dow Jones ended 2022 UP on the year..

Also worth noting that small-cap is starting to move ..

Long small cap, short big tech?

2/n
Pulling back the curtain, we see energy stocks still leading the sub-indices. Consumer discretionary and tech suffer, while staples have held ground (Long bottom vs. short top of Mazlow)

This is a textbook inflation/uncertainty rotation... BUT do note the move in Utilities

3/n
Read 10 tweets
AndreasStenoLarsen Profile picture
Nov 1
What's going on with the BIZARRE diesel prices in the North East of US? 🤯

A thread 1/n
The Nov/Dec spread has exploded to the upside hinting of substantial supply scarcity heading into winter, but what are the underlying reasons?

2/n
Chart H/T (@TgMacro) - a must follow in Energy space
The "days of supply" of Diesel is LOW compared to history as the inventory level has remained relatively stable nominally compared to a substantially rising demand

3/n
Read 10 tweets
AndreasStenoLarsen Profile picture
Oct 30
What's going on in Natural Gas? We recorded 45 minutes around the situation and discussed how to trade it in this weeks "The Macro Trading Floor"

Find the episode on all podcast apps and on YouTube. Links below
Youtube:
Apple: podcasts.apple.com/podcast/natura…
Read 4 tweets
AndreasStenoLarsen Profile picture
Oct 30
Question to all of the monetarists out there

Why is European inflation HIGHER than US inflation when the Fed printed MUCH more than the ECB as a % of GDP in 2020/2021?

Isn't inflation supposed to be a monetary phenonemon ONLY?
The answer is clearly energy.. I agree..

So the war is the important driver of European inflation after all?
Calling @neelkashkari , @MaMoMVPY and others.

You are surprisingly quiet when your textbook narrative is not able to explain the reality
Read 4 tweets
AndreasStenoLarsen Profile picture
Oct 30
There are several reasons why zero (or even negative) interest rates are VERY unhealthy 🤯📉

Let me provide you with a few practical -and anecdotal explanations from what I have observed over the past 2-4 years

A thread 1/5
First, there is no time value of money in a zero interest rate environment

If the time value of money is zero or even negative, even a forecasted rapidly growing cash-flow from selling Rocketship trips to Mars in 2340 looks compelling

This polutes financial modelling

2/5
Second, creative destruction goes to zero when rates go to zero

When money literally carries no time value, we tend to see an environment of extremely low productivity growth.

Pseudo-projects suddenly seem compelling and bad ideas thrive

3/5
Read 5 tweets

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