Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Nov 2, 2022 22 tweets 7 min read Read on X
A brief update for November 1st. #ukrdailyupdate

I am still working to confirm the status of various areas along the front line, so this will be light on details.

If you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com
Russia fired over 100 shells, primarily mortars, into the Sumy oblast today into six towns. Unfortunately, I only know three towns (plus two more in Chernihiv oblast).
Here is an overview of the Kupyansk/Svatove area.
Near Kupyansk, Ukrainian forces were geoconfirmed fighting in Orlyanske (highlighted arrow).
A bit south of Orlyanske, closer to Svatove, Ukraine is attacking Kuzemivka.
Here is an overview of the Kreminna area.
Near Kreminna, Ukraine is attacking Chervonopopivka, and Russia is doing active defense around Kreminna, clearing the area west of the town.
In the Siversk area, Russia has had partial success attacking Bilohorivka and now controls a chunk of the town (highlighted arrow).

They also attacked Spirne without notable changes.
North of Bakhmut, Russia is assaulting Yakovlivka, Soledar, and Bakhmutske as usual without notable changes.
South of Bakhmut, Russia is attacking Ivanhrad, Opytne, and near the asphalt plant without notable changes.
Near New York, Russia is assaulting Mayorsk and Oleksandropil without notable changes.
In the Avdiivka area, Russia is assaulting Vesele, Kamyanka, Avdiivka, Opytne, and Vodyane. I am still determining the status of Opytne at the moment, but the other areas are without notable changes.
West of Donetsk, Russia assaulted Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, and Marinka.

Russia’s focus is Nevelske, and they moved perhaps 100 meters over the past 48 hours.

Russia has had some success moving through the gray area in Marinka, but the situation is mercurial.
Southwest of Donetsk, Russia is performing a significant attack on the Vuhledar/Pavlivka area. This area has the heaviest fighting in Ukraine at the moment.
Russia is assaulting Novomykhailivka, and they claim to have success south of the town, but I haven’t seen solid proof.
Russia is assaulting Vuhledar and Pavlivka. In Pavlivka, Russia controls the eastern and southern portions of the city, but Ukraine controls the west, the central bridge crossings, and the northern part.
Russia has moved up to the T0509 highway between Zolota Nyva and Prechystivka.
Petro Adryushchenko, an adviser to the mayor of Mariupol, reported an explosion in the Akhtamar hotel. Supposedly the strike destroyed military equipment and Kadyrovites.
South of Hulyaipole, Ukraine is performing reconnaissance by combat in Marfopil, probing for weaknesses.
Between Kamyanske and Orikhiv, Ukraine is attacking south from Stepove toward Pyatykhatky. But, again, this is reconnaissance by combat, probing for weaknesses.
Russia heavily shelled the Nikopol and Marhanets areas today, targeting kindergartens, hairdressers, and other similar high-value military targets.
Russia fired four S-300 missiles into Mykolaiv, destroying a historic gymnasium, a college, and a college dorm.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

May 3
The US saw Russia using nothing but golf carts and ladas in Ukraine and said fuck it, we're going on all in. We're cancelling all armor procurement. Battle golf carts are the future. Who needs firepower when you have bags of meat strapped to a go-cart?
Many Americans will die, and that is a sacrifice the Army is willing to make. Drive the golf cart full steam into a drone swarm. The guys in the back will have tons of ability to shoot back before they die, since there will be no walls or doors to get in the way.
All paths will be heavily mined, which is why we got rid of mraps. The mraps would just get disabled anyway, and then you'd be wishing you had a golf cart to ride. So, instead of wasting our time with armor, lets cut to the chase and deploy you on a golf cart from the start.
Read 5 tweets
May 1
Interesting uptick in Russian dive bomber drones recently. I've wondered why they were developed then suddenly disappeared. They always seemed the most effective type of drone.
Russians are using dive bombers to destroy vehicles. Much more efficient than suiciding the drone and deals the same damage.
Magyar used to use dive bombers to destroy tanks, but stopped for some reason.
Read 8 tweets
Apr 26
Sitting here listening to a news report from the 1970s where the police broke into the wrong house in a police raid, where every American was... normal. They were outraged, they wanted immediate accountability and changes to the law. And then congress... changed the law. Apparently the US had a functional society at some point.
Literally in 4 days there will be a major supreme court case in the US about this. That law from the 70s, the federal government has basically declared the law doesn't count. On Tuesday, four days from now, there is a Supreme Court case where the courts will decide whether that law written by congress is going to be followed or whether the judiciary gets to invent their own laws and ignore congress.
And nobody is talking about this, for some reason. Even after literally yesterday where Trump literally signed an executive order THAT ALLOWS FEDERAL AGENTS TO SEARCH YOUR HOUSE WITHOUT A WARRANT.
Read 6 tweets
Apr 18
I see several things happening in Ukraine right now:

1: Ukraine has pivoted to a drone based defense. Most of the gains you see Russia making right now are coming as a result of one of two things. A: Inferior Ukrainian drone units or B: Overwhelming Numerical Superiority.
When I say an inferior drone unit, I do not mean the pilots are bad, or even necessarily that their construction is bad. It could be as simple as not having access to enough drones, or not having enough pilots. I simply mean the unit isn’t strong enough for the task.
Where we see the strongest drone units, we see Russia struggling to advance, Usually only advancing with extreme numerical superiority and enormous casualties.
Read 15 tweets
Apr 15
I started the weekend with like 40 days of backlog. Ugh. I did 19 days. Meh. Here are the days. Image
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Read 19 tweets
Mar 19
Here are losses for February.

First, the total losses by category. You see significantly more losses for Russia than for Ukraine. This is the first month where Rubicon played a significant part of the Ukrainian losses. Image
Roughly 17% of Ukraine's losses in the month of February were from Rubicon (328 out of 1965). Primarily in Kursk.
Here you can see Tank, Infantry Fighting Vehicle, Armored Personnel Carrier, and MRAP losses by day through the month. Note that Russia uses few MRAPs. Image
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Read 7 tweets

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