Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Nov 2, 2022 22 tweets 7 min read Read on X
A brief update for November 1st. #ukrdailyupdate

I am still working to confirm the status of various areas along the front line, so this will be light on details.

If you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com
Russia fired over 100 shells, primarily mortars, into the Sumy oblast today into six towns. Unfortunately, I only know three towns (plus two more in Chernihiv oblast).
Here is an overview of the Kupyansk/Svatove area.
Near Kupyansk, Ukrainian forces were geoconfirmed fighting in Orlyanske (highlighted arrow).
A bit south of Orlyanske, closer to Svatove, Ukraine is attacking Kuzemivka.
Here is an overview of the Kreminna area.
Near Kreminna, Ukraine is attacking Chervonopopivka, and Russia is doing active defense around Kreminna, clearing the area west of the town.
In the Siversk area, Russia has had partial success attacking Bilohorivka and now controls a chunk of the town (highlighted arrow).

They also attacked Spirne without notable changes.
North of Bakhmut, Russia is assaulting Yakovlivka, Soledar, and Bakhmutske as usual without notable changes.
South of Bakhmut, Russia is attacking Ivanhrad, Opytne, and near the asphalt plant without notable changes.
Near New York, Russia is assaulting Mayorsk and Oleksandropil without notable changes.
In the Avdiivka area, Russia is assaulting Vesele, Kamyanka, Avdiivka, Opytne, and Vodyane. I am still determining the status of Opytne at the moment, but the other areas are without notable changes.
West of Donetsk, Russia assaulted Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, and Marinka.

Russia’s focus is Nevelske, and they moved perhaps 100 meters over the past 48 hours.

Russia has had some success moving through the gray area in Marinka, but the situation is mercurial.
Southwest of Donetsk, Russia is performing a significant attack on the Vuhledar/Pavlivka area. This area has the heaviest fighting in Ukraine at the moment.
Russia is assaulting Novomykhailivka, and they claim to have success south of the town, but I haven’t seen solid proof.
Russia is assaulting Vuhledar and Pavlivka. In Pavlivka, Russia controls the eastern and southern portions of the city, but Ukraine controls the west, the central bridge crossings, and the northern part.
Russia has moved up to the T0509 highway between Zolota Nyva and Prechystivka.
Petro Adryushchenko, an adviser to the mayor of Mariupol, reported an explosion in the Akhtamar hotel. Supposedly the strike destroyed military equipment and Kadyrovites.
South of Hulyaipole, Ukraine is performing reconnaissance by combat in Marfopil, probing for weaknesses.
Between Kamyanske and Orikhiv, Ukraine is attacking south from Stepove toward Pyatykhatky. But, again, this is reconnaissance by combat, probing for weaknesses.
Russia heavily shelled the Nikopol and Marhanets areas today, targeting kindergartens, hairdressers, and other similar high-value military targets.
Russia fired four S-300 missiles into Mykolaiv, destroying a historic gymnasium, a college, and a college dorm.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

Jun 23
A few areas where I have been focusing on geoing strikes on Russians positions lately have been interesting in that only a very tiny number of Russians are defending. In one area in particular, the video showed a drone scan a series of trenches where only four Russians were spotted. Two killed and two forced to flee. I wonder what is behind those Russians, and whether it is similarly a skeleton crew on defense. Also, these Russians were quite far from Ukrainian positions, so they were not some extremely advanced forward position, they seem to me to be the second and/or third line of defense, which are typically more heavily manned.
When I see video like this, from an area very far from offensive actions, where Russia is purely defending, it makes me wonder how different the war would be if Ukraine had the capacity to attack this location. I feel like if Ukraine were to attack and capture it, many people online would say the area doesn't matter because it is only advancing 1km or blah blah. But advancing 1km is important, because it forces Russians to divert resources away from attacking to defending. Or you will advance a second k, or a third km until such a point that the Russians are forced to defend.
There is an area where Ukraine has been slowly advancing in this manner. Nobody is really talking about it, because it isn't sexy. It doesn't impact any large battles, it isn't a sign of things to come, or anything else. It is just Ukraine taking advantage of Russia failing to adequately defend positions.
Read 5 tweets
May 23
Ukraine does not have an adequate air force, but it can create the effects of an air force using other methods and tools. For example, long-range drones can be deployed in a series of nested concentric circles to mine and harass supply roads, effectively cutting them off.

One layer of drones could strike targets 100 km out, the next at 80 km, then 60 km, 40 km, and finally, the remaining drones could dominate the last 20–30 km leading to the front.

With sufficient drone coverage density, the impact on enemy logistics can closely mirror that of a conventional air force—cutting off supplies and limiting troop movements.

Furthermore, the development of heavier strike drones, with payloads between 100 and 500 kg, can replicate the effects of traditional airstrikes. In conjunction with attack drones, this combination becomes a deadly one-two punch: attack drones locate and relay target positions, and heavier strike drones follow up with rapid and destructive precision.

Once the enemy's rear positions are degraded to this extent, the front becomes unsustainable. The opposing force will be forced to withdraw, regardless of intent.

Ukraine does not need large offensive pushes to defeat Russia. It needs extremely high-density drone coverage to deny Russian sustainment. Land can be taken back piece by piece, without committing to large and costly ground assaults.
All but the heavy strike drones can be done with the technology that Ukraine has available today, right now. The strike drones could be developed in short order. This is a realistic path to victory using the tools and resources available. And one which Europe could help using financing alone.
Europe could also provide longer range weapons for Ukraine’s existing aircraft, which is frankly a much more unrealistic path forward. Albeit possible. And Europe doesn’t really have the weapons available to give, so would require making them first.
Read 4 tweets
May 10
After Trump put Fedex guys in charge of USPS, the democrats should issue an official warning that any aspect of USPS that might get “privatized” under trump will be immediately seized, without compensation, by the following administration and congress.
There should be an open air understanding that any aspect of the government privatized by Trump will be seized back without compensation. We will eminent domain your ass, and change any law (or court makeup) to make it legal.
The property of the people isn’t for sale. That’s the message.
Read 4 tweets
May 3
The US saw Russia using nothing but golf carts and ladas in Ukraine and said fuck it, we're going on all in. We're cancelling all armor procurement. Battle golf carts are the future. Who needs firepower when you have bags of meat strapped to a go-cart?
Many Americans will die, and that is a sacrifice the Army is willing to make. Drive the golf cart full steam into a drone swarm. The guys in the back will have tons of ability to shoot back before they die, since there will be no walls or doors to get in the way.
All paths will be heavily mined, which is why we got rid of mraps. The mraps would just get disabled anyway, and then you'd be wishing you had a golf cart to ride. So, instead of wasting our time with armor, lets cut to the chase and deploy you on a golf cart from the start.
Read 5 tweets
May 1
Interesting uptick in Russian dive bomber drones recently. I've wondered why they were developed then suddenly disappeared. They always seemed the most effective type of drone.
Russians are using dive bombers to destroy vehicles. Much more efficient than suiciding the drone and deals the same damage.
Magyar used to use dive bombers to destroy tanks, but stopped for some reason.
Read 8 tweets
Apr 26
Sitting here listening to a news report from the 1970s where the police broke into the wrong house in a police raid, where every American was... normal. They were outraged, they wanted immediate accountability and changes to the law. And then congress... changed the law. Apparently the US had a functional society at some point.
Literally in 4 days there will be a major supreme court case in the US about this. That law from the 70s, the federal government has basically declared the law doesn't count. On Tuesday, four days from now, there is a Supreme Court case where the courts will decide whether that law written by congress is going to be followed or whether the judiciary gets to invent their own laws and ignore congress.
And nobody is talking about this, for some reason. Even after literally yesterday where Trump literally signed an executive order THAT ALLOWS FEDERAL AGENTS TO SEARCH YOUR HOUSE WITHOUT A WARRANT.
Read 6 tweets

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