I have been to Bucha, Irpin and Borodyanka amid my latest trip to Kyiv last week. These towns suffered from Russian occupation, and unprecedented terror and destruction. Let me say some words about how we can help Ukrainians to hold through this winter. All photos mine. THREAD
1) First: a good news. The towns revive. Cafe “Bayraktar” serves food, the public library is open, the houses are being repaired (see the red bricks on the top level? They are new, repairing the damage done by the Russian bombs).
2) Still, the destruction is everywhere. The big markets are hit by bombs and shells (entry sign Novus for a huge market). The whole blocks are destroyed, in some houses several flats burnt.
3) What is essential? Roofs and windows. It will be minus degrees cold in Ukraine next weeks (under 32F), and rainy/snowy. Even when a house is not totally damaged by explosions, the water from the top will finish it. That is why they repair these parts first.
4) Still, money is limited. One can directly address city halls - not only in Kyiv region of course! In any damaged city! - most of them have extra entities like “(city name) reconstruction foundation”. Ask your city hall if they have a city cooperation program.
5) Energy generators can be helpful, but they will not solve the problem root. If Russians manage to split Ukrainian energy system into several isolated islands by cutting transmission lines, it will be a total collapse of energy supply no generators fleet can substitute.
6) So yes, you may send generators, but better lobby for air defense, long-range missiles and money for maintenance teams.
7) Overall: the reconstruction will be long and costly. It will include a lot of construction, de-mining, modernization. I heard some Western companies are already looking for storage facilities and logistic hubs. Good for them. For everyone it is a chance to be on the good side.
PS if you want to find some private initiatives from Ukraine (not only with the focus on recovery), I have a list here:
THREAD: Ok, let us have a sober look at the U.S. - Ukraine - Russia - EU constellation. First: the U.S. - Ukraine agreement was not necessary for Ukraine. It was not necessary for the U.S. as well. It was necessary only for Trump, therefore he is vulnerable. Let me explain. /1
The "agreement" didn't provide Ukraine with anything. It was aimed on payment for the U.S. from Ukraine (and practically allowed the U.S. to mine Ukrainian resources on Russia-occupied lands). Trump needed it to prove that he is a great dealer. But why did Ukraine need it? /2
The agreement did not foresee any U.S. military support, guarantees, even "commitments". Ukraine paid retrospective for what they have got for free. So for Ukraine, it was a pure cost factor, for Trump - pure profit factor. And he needed it asap. Therefore - he was vulnerable. /3
In four weeks, Feb. 23rd, Germany will have preliminary elections. In this THREAD I will try to explain what it is about, who would probably win, where are bottlenecks, and what it means for the world and for Ukraine. /1 ⬇️
First, we need to understand: German electoral system is designed to dilute votes. No job higher than a city mayor gets elected directly. The reason is the Nazi past: no politician may claim being elected by the PEOPLE. So people vote for parties, and they name politicians. /2⬇️
So people vote for parties, and parties need 50%+1 vote to name a head of a region, or a chancellor. Normally, no party gets over 50%, so a coalition is needed (on a federal level, conservatives from the CDU under Adenauer have got 50,2% in 1957, but still formed a coalition)/3⬇️
Yesterday in Davos, Germany's guru diplomat and Merkel's minion @ischinger made some absolutely crazy statements, effectively urging for occupation of Ukraine by BRICS countries (and promoted his wife's book in the beginning). In this THREAD I explain why this was terrible /1 ⬇️
Let us deconstruct Ischinger step by step. First, he claims Western peace troops in Ukraine must follow a rule "all in - all out". Who told you so? NATO countries supported Ukraine on their own all the time. Had we waited for Hungary and Scholz, 🇺🇦 would never get anything /2 ⬇️
Second. Ischinger claims, European NATO troops may not be sent, because they would automatically and never be able to fight without a presence of the U.S. troops. Hallo, Ischi, ever asked how Ukrainian troops fight quite successfully without the U.S. troops on the ground? /2 ⬇️
A THREAD: Our 2024 #ChristmasDrones campaign is running! Why it is important, and how we at the @EuroResilience deliver donated goods directly to the frontline? Get insight from this THREAD (And a donation link: ) /1paypal.com/donate?campaig…
During our last donation campaign by @EuroResilience @BrennpunktUA and @frontlinekit, we have raised €277,000. For this money, we have produced hundreds of drones, and bought addition equipment for the drones units: off-the-shelf drones, cars, antennas, power stations. /2
@EuroResilience @BrennpunktUA @frontlinekit I personally traveled days through Ukraine, bringing equipment directly to the frontline. When you stay at the units, sleep in their premises, eat with soldiers, and escape Russian drones attacks, this creates bonds. Soldiers tell you what they REALLY need, and trust you. /3
A large number of genuine Ukrainian accounts I follow on different social media (and in many cases I personally know people behind them) are looking positively towards Trump's presidency, and see him as a hope for any true action. This shows how much Biden has pissed off Ukraine.
I stress: I don't say if Trump is good or bad. I say: many Ukrainians who risk their life daily, many at the front, are glad that Biden's team leaves the stage. They are well aware of Trump's ambiguity, and of what he & his team said about 🇺🇦 or Putin. Still they are relieved.
Biden's team went to this catastrophe deliberately and for years. From Ukraine's hero who has provided Ukraine with Javelins - to a pity old delusional man who is afraid of the might of the country he runs.
THREAD The real problem in communication btw Ukraine and its allies is the total lack of a common post-war world vision ➡️ the lack of a common goal. 🇺🇦 goal is to guarantee survival of the 🇺🇦 state AND of 🇺🇦nation, AND to achieve sustainable security for them in the future. 1/8
This goal is impossible to achieve without a full military defeat of Russia, and either significant demilitarization of Russia, or a significant increase of Ukraine’s military capacities, including gigantic long-range strike capacities (cruise missiles and Air Force). 2/8
The Western goal is different. While it’s not aimed against Ukraine per se
and would even welcome Ukraine’s survival, first of all it is aimed at prevention of Russia’s uncontrolled collapse, which associates with global risks (while Ukraine’s defeat is seen as a local risk). 3/8