Tweet

(((James Acton)))

Nov 2 • 4 tweets • 2 min read

As someone who worries a lot about nuclear escalation in the war on Ukraine, I do NOT find this morning's New York Times story particularly concerning--for the simple reason that militaries discuss *everything*. That's their job. (1/n)

nytimes.com/2022/11/02/us/…

If you could listen to the conversations of military officers--in Russia, the United States, and elsewhere--I'm sure you'd hear many pretty crazy ideas (just like folks in other professions!) Some are dismissed immediately; others get shot down by political leaders. (2/n)

@pwnallthethings

The important thing is whether Putin was involved in these conversations--and, even more so--whether he expressed interest in using nukes. Here the Times story is very reassuring.

@pwnallthethings is spot on (as usual):

(3/n)

https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/1587769784044867584?s=20&t=wMUtAX9znpVa2_gw6dqPlQ

To be clear: I'm NOT saying we shouldn't worry about nuclear escalation. I am saying that conversations among "military leaders" isn't a particular cause for concern. (4/4)

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

More from @james_acton32

(((James Acton)))

@james_acton32

Oct 28

@iaeaorg

.#nukecon keynote. @iaeaorg Director General @rafaelmgrossi interviewed by @CarnegieEndow president Tino Cuéllar. Fun fact: They share a name: Mariano!

@rafaelmgrossi

.@rafaelmgrossi: Iran problem is becoming more and more “relevant” every day. (“I’m choosing a neutral word, ‘relevant.’”) #nukecon

@rafaelmgrossi

.@rafaelmgrossi’s vision for IAEA: Use mandate to the full. Deal with tough problems. It’s easy to hold symposia on nuclear safety. But when a nuclear power plant is being shelled, the IAEA has to get involved. #nukecon

Read 15 tweets

(((James Acton)))

@james_acton32

Oct 28

@LauraEGrego

Welcome to day two of #nukecon! We’re going to discuss the deterrence and escalation implications of new delivery system technologies with @LauraEGrego, Greg Weaver, Sun Xiangli, and @ElenaChernenko.

@LauraEGrego

.@LauraEGrego: New technologies won’t undermine U.S.-Chinese or U.S.-Russian mutual vulnerability, but could lead to escalation in crises because, for example, of the difficulty of distinguishing a space launch from a FOBs launch. #nukecon

Weaver: Maneuverability of hypersonic systems complicates assessing which targets are under attack.

FOBs/MOBs are more concerning. Potentially extremely short warning times; could undermine ICBM/leadership survivability. #nukecon

Read 14 tweets

(((James Acton)))

@james_acton32

Oct 27

@UnderSecT

Final panel of day 1 of #nukecon. Under Secretary of State Bonnie Jenkins, @UnderSecT, and NNSA Administrator Jill Hruby, @NNSAHruby, are in conversation with @nktpnd.

@UnderSecT

.@UnderSecT: The predictability created by arms control is more impact than ever. #nukecon

@UnderSecT

.@UnderSecT: In scoping out possible future arms control, admin discussed wide range of capabilities with Russia (including hypersonics and cyber). Moreover, arms control is about more than limits; also transparency and norms (including in space). #nukecon

Read 12 tweets

(((James Acton)))

@james_acton32

Oct 27

Now that the agenda for #nukecon has been fully announced, here is the gender balance of our speakers and panelists. Once again, a majority are women.

Female panelists: 53% (26/49)
Male panelists: 47% (23/49)

(1/9)

The % of moderators who are women (54% or 7/13) is essentially identical to the overall % of speakers and panelists who are women (53% or 36/49). (2/9)

And here are the geographic diversity stats:

United States: 55% (27/49)
Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand: 24% (12/49)
Rest of world: 20% (10/49)

% of Americans is similar to 2019 and 2021.

(3/9)

Read 9 tweets

(((James Acton)))

@james_acton32

Oct 27

@G_Zlauvinen

Next at #nukecon: Amb @G_Zlauvinen, president of the tenth NPT Review Conference, in conversation with Amb @AmbKennedy_ret.

@G_Zlauvinen

.@G_Zlauvinen: Russian behavior puzzling. We were expecting Ru delegation to be led by Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov, but Ru didn’t submit visa application for him. Still, probably didn’t affect final outcome. #nukecon

@G_Zlauvinen

.@G_Zlauvinen: Even in the absence of a final document, we proved the system worked. States engaged in actual negotiations over all aspects of NPT implementation. #nukecon

Read 11 tweets

(((James Acton)))

@james_acton32

Oct 27

@KoriSchake

First panel at #nukecon. Can the Ukraine war end without nuclear use?

@KoriSchake argues that if the U.S. gets intel that Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons, it should provide that intel to Ukraine so Kiev can preempt.

@PatPorter76

.@PatPorter76: U.S. interests in Ukraine are limited. Needs to ask questions about which weapons to supply to Ukraine and what limits (including geographical) it should attach to supply.

@MMazarr

As @MMazarr put, Pat is a looming presence over this panel.

Read 20 tweets

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Share this page!

(((James Acton)))

People who liked this thread also liked...

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

More from @james_acton32

(((James Acton)))

(((James Acton)))

(((James Acton)))

(((James Acton)))

(((James Acton)))

(((James Acton)))

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Send Email!