#PASen - 11/2 Update

A modest ~45,000 ballots were dropped, up to ~965,000 now cast.

Dem return rate is 69.4%, up from 67.2%.
GOP return rate is 65.2%, up from 63.2%.

D return rate advantage slightly increased to 4.2% today. Updated map and analysis is down here as usual.
Solid green = 80%+
Light green = 70-80%
Yellow = 60-70%
Red = 50-60%
1. Western PA continues to show its strength.
2. Dems finally crossed 60% in Philly.
3. Fulton, an interesting outlier, is finally starting to catch up quickly.
4. There'll be some major milestones tomorrow that will be worth commenting on, which you can infer from the numbers.

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More from @blockedfreq

Nov 4
#PASen - 11/4 Update

~42,000 ballots were returned, bringing us to ~1,060,000 cast.

Dem return rate went up to 75.3%, breaking the threshold of 3/4s of all ballots returned.
GOP return rate is now 73%.

A few interesting observations with this one. Let's dive in. Image
Solid green = 80%+
Light green = 70-80%
Yellow = 60-70%
1. More collar counties have caught up today and crossed the 70% threshold.
2. Dem firewall is now 520,000+ strong.
3. Delaware County will cross 70% in the next batch to drop.
4. We have a handful of counties knocking on the 95%+ return rate door, should hit it in the next drop.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 4
There's been a lot of conversation on the merits of analyzing the early vote this evening. Since I'm doing a fair bit of it for PA, allow me to offer a few thoughts about it. (1/x)
Disclaimer: I will say this - you do have to be careful about doing stuff like that. It varies wildly from state to state in terms of effectiveness. A big reason why I'm doing this revolves around testing a wider hypothesis I have about a hybrid model of election analysis. (2/x)
Subsequently, many of you quite rightly wonder how and where I came out of nowhere to start doing analysis for #PASen on an in-depth level. It just so happens that this year and an election that I'm heavily invested in finally allowed me the chance to test my thesis. (3/x)
Read 5 tweets
Nov 3
#PASen - 11/3 Update (big one!)

~50,000 ballots were returned, bringing us across the threshold of ONE MILLION votes cast (1,017,019).

Dem return rate crossed another major threshold of 72.6% of all ballots returned.
GOP return rate is 69.7%.

Takeways below. Image
Solid green = 80%+
Light green = 70-80%
Yellow = 60-70%
1. All PA counties are now out of the "red" zone.
2. Montgomery County followed Bucks and finally got its act together with the ballots, crossing over 70% returned there today. Good news for Fett.
3. Another batch of counties will cross 80% tomorrow.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 31
#PASen - 10/31 Update

~62,500 ballots were returned over the weekend, bringing us to ~855,000 cast.

Dem return rate is 63.6%
GOP return rate is 59%

Dem advantage in return rate remains stable at ~4.5%.

The map has been upgraded to the next level. Color key and analysis below. Image
Dark green = 80%+ of ballots returned.
Light green = 70-80% of ballots returned.
Yellow = 60-70% of ballots returned.
Red = 50-60% of ballots returned.
Purple = 40-50% of ballots returned.

Once 95%+ of ballots in a county have been returned, the county color will turn blue.
Now for the fun stuff.

1. Dem firewall is now almost at 450,000+.

2. Collar counties are still struggling with their returns. They better hope their slower reporting is straightened out on Election Night or else it's going to be a long week for all of us.
Read 4 tweets

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