The Actuaries Institute COVID-19 Mortality Working group has just released our new analysis of excess mortality using detailed data to 31 July 2022.
TLDR: Another huge excess in July. #COVID19Aus#ExcessMortality
You can find the full write-up here... actuaries.digital/2022/11/03/cov…
Note we measure excess deaths relative to pre-pandemic expectations of mortality, including allowance for continuation of mortality improvement (around 1.5-2% pa).
Our methodology also allows for changes in the size and age mix of the population.
Actual deaths (orange diamonds) in July were again very high, and well above the 95% prediction interval (blue shading).
We are measuring 16% excess for the month of July, or 2,600 additional deaths. About 1,400 of those deaths were due to COVID.
For the first 7 months of 2022, we are measuring the excess at 14%, or almost 14,000 more deaths than predicted.
Half of these are due to COVID.
Another 1,700 had COVID as a contributory cause.
Here is a breakdown into deaths from COVID, with COVID and other causes by month.
For completeness, here is the same table for 2021 and 2020.
Here's the COVID graph by week. Based on surveillance reporting, I expect the month of August will also have an average of around 300 deaths per week.
Here's influenza. An early peak, and well below the bad flu seasons of 2017 and 2019.
Deaths from other respiratory causes are lower than predicted.
Non-COVID, non-respiratory deaths. Up massively in 2022.
It is not due to cancer.
Ischaemic heart disease is a key driver.
As are "other" diseases - this is a catch-all group of everything not specifically reported on by the ABS.
While dementia deaths are up overall in the 7 months, most of this excess was in Jan/Feb.
What about beyond 31 July?
Surveillance deaths peaked in Aug, with Sept much lower and Oct lower again. We estimate excess mortality due to COVID only of 9%, 6% and 2% respectively.
Given the experience so far in 2022, we expect total excess mortality will be higher than this.
This graph shows the mortality rate for each year expressed relative to 2019, and allows for our aging population.
Noting we had a pre-pandemic trend of mortality improvement of 1.5-2% pa, the first 7 months of 2022 is well above any other year shown. Terrible.
The Working Group is currently preparing some analysis by age band/gender, and I am hoping we will be able to publish next week.
The end. Any questions?
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The Mortality Working Group has today published our Research Paper covering excess mortality in 2020-2023. actuaries.asn.au/public-policy-…
It is a massive paper (100+ pages), so I'm not going to cover off all of it!
This thread gives a taster of what is included in the paper, and is aimed at those who may want to delve further into the nitty-gritty.
There are four main sections of our paper (plus an into in section 1).
Section 2 cover excess mortality for Australia. This formally documents the excess mortality blogs we published throughout 2023. For those who have been following me, the numbers will look familiar.
The Mortality Working Group of the Actuaries Institute has released their latest estimate of excess mortality for Q1 2024.
TLDR: excess mortality is 1%, noting this is measured against the new baseline. actuaries.digital/2024/07/10/exc…
Our new baseline measures 2024 mortality against 2023 (after allowing for some mortality improvement), and includes and allowance for COVID-19 deaths.
Deaths from all causes have been within the 95% confidence interval in each of the first thirteen weeks of 2024, although they have been towards the top of that range for three of the last four weeks of March.
"Australia appears to have had at least a week where no COVID-associated deaths were recorded for the first time in more than two years."
This is simply not true. The statement is based on this Fed Health graph.
Yes, it does show a 7-day average of zero deaths for the most recent data points. But this ignores the fact that the graph is compiled using date of death, and it is almost impossible for someone to die, have their death registered, and included in the Fed data within a week!
The Mortality Working Group of the Actuaries Institute has released our estimate of excess mortality for the full year 2023.
TLDR: Excess mortality for 2023 is 5% (95% CI: 3%-7%) or +8,400 deaths.
A thread/ actuaries.digital/2024/04/05/exc…
Note that our expected number of deaths (baseline) is our expectation had the pandemic not happened.
The baseline allows for changes in the age and size composition of the population over time, plus allows for pre-pandemic mortality trend to continue.
We finished the year with deaths being much higher than expected for each of the four weeks in December (as they were in November).
Australian deaths counts: surveillance vs death certificates.
For some time now I have been quizzically looking at the death surveillance reporting, thinking the numbers looked too low.
A thread/
This is because of the relationship between hospitalisations and deaths.
Normally deaths track hospital admissions quite closely, but with a little bit of a lag. But for Dec23 and Jan24, this relationship changed - deaths are lower than expected based on hospitalisations.
A few theories were floating around about why (eg. JN.1 less severe), but it also didnt make sense to me from looking at the Vic death reporting, and knowing the Vic wave was a bit earlier than the rest of Aust. Things just werent stacking up nicely.
The Mortality Working Group* of the Actuaries Institute has estimated Australian excess mortality to 30 November 2023.
A thread/
* re-branded as we plan to look at more than just Covid
Total excess mortality for the first 11 months of 2023 is estimated at 5% (95% confidence interval: 3% to 7%).
This is about 7,400 more deaths than expected if the pandemic had not happened.
This compares to excess mortality for 2022 of 11%.
With only one month of data still to be reported for 2023, we expect that excess mortality for the full year 2023 will be about half the level of 2022.