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umichvoter 🏳️‍🌈 Profile picture
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Nov 3 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
target smart numbers for Michigan are honestly a little hard to believe. idk how mail ballots breakdown changed so much from 2020 to 2022

Also their final 2020 sample (including Election Day) was GOP 41-37 but Biden won by 3 so their definition of indies was very left leaning
Michigan doesn’t have party registration so that’s that
BUT. the data im using also has a similar modeled 1.8 DEM to 1 GOP ratio. Target smart has less unaffiliated than what I’m using . These are all modeled partisanship.
Question is how the hell was 2020 absentee vote so narrow between republicans parties on target smart. Did they change their methodology between 2020 and 2022?

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More from @umichvoter

umichvoter 🏳️‍🌈 Profile picture
Oct 31
palm beach at D+20% mail+in-person while miami is at D+0.5% is certainly confusing. Both counties are are roughly D+10% voter registration so its all about turnout differential
22% of Republicans in Miami have voted. Relative to only 17% of registered Democrats who have voted. Dems need their voters out to vote.
could be Dems usually win election day in Miami while they lose it 2:1 in palm beach usually
Read 5 tweets
umichvoter 🏳️‍🌈 Profile picture
Oct 24
NEVADA , in person early votes

2020:
Day 1 Clark: Dem +7% (27k)
Day 2 Clark: Dem +0.7% (23k)
Day 3 Clark: GOP +7% (29k)
Day 4 Clark: GOP +10% (30k)

2022
Day 1 Clark: GOP +8% (11k)
Day 2 Clark: GOP +6% (8k)
Day 3 Clark: ???
Day 4 Clark: ???

turnout WAY down
Very critical day
Where does GOP % advantage go from Day 2 -> 3

In 2020, Day 1 -> 2 -> 3 -> 4 got progressively better for GOP

In 2022, no movement from Day 1 -> 2
GOP ended up with a 170,000 to 140,000 lead among *in-person early* votes in Clark County (roughly 42% to 34%)

Dems created a 229,000 to 100,000 lead among *mail* votes there (roughly 50% to 22%)

47% of all votes came from mail and 42% of all votes came from in-person early
Read 4 tweets
umichvoter 🏳️‍🌈 Profile picture
Aug 14
9 days before the primary
Here's the combined FL mail + in-person early voting
DEM 573,009 (46%)
GOP 492,583 (39%)
we all know about election day turnout how much it skews GOP so this is mostly just for fun exercise!
also random fun fact but miami dade was the only county out of 67 counties in 2020 to have e-day be more dem favorable than the in-person early vote but not the mail obviously
Read 4 tweets

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