University of Michigan is putting voting info and early voting details on coffee sleeves

They are just killing on this front

Just completely revolutionizing voting for students

Per Puck News: leaked Dem internal polling from Open Labs

puck.news/biden-plunges-…
From the article:

Biden vs Trump as of *today*
it's my opinion, we don't have enough data right now
based on likelihood of winning, NOT margin Lean is using 60-65% chance of winning, Biden has roughly 35-40% chance of winning North Carolina and Trump has a similar chance to win Pennsylvania

fair texas map I mostly made this map using density of exurbs to keep them seperate from suburbs and rurals

As expected miami dade Election Day vote (ratio of 1.33 to 1) is actually less GOP leaning than the in person early vote ratio (1.43 to 1) so far but GOP is still winning it as of 7:30

will trends change with time? 🤷‍♂️ but that’s your data! Yep 1.29 to 1 now.

Just like that, 5000 people have voted in Miami dade in that first 10 mins. 2256 GOP, 1518 DEM. Different times of the day have different compositions so let’s get a bigger sample size for accuracy Broward: GOP 1350, DEM 1060 so wasn’t limited to Miami

Hard to see the Whitmer turnout machine result in slotkin losing MI-07 at the moment, I expect the Dem ticket to prevails but it’s not an outrageous pick given the spending and district fundamentals. Mood is different on the ground but at the end of the day that can be subjective

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1589426102141079554

I feel pretty good about Slotkin’s chances to pull it off, whether it’s by 0.2% or 2% but that’s just me. Everyone can have their own judgment on the state of play

Michigan GOP having to dumping 2 million in trump +4 seats (away from Biden won seats) says otherwise okay bud whatever you say

https://twitter.com/Jacob_Walters39/status/1589374101256142848

for those who are actually interested in learning, here’s the state of the matter

SD-4 (Biden +4, Peters +6 Dems have spent plenty to keep it in Dem hands, A+ dem recruit

SD-11 (Biden +2, Peters +5) Both GOP and Dems have conceded this one should go in the column

MICHIGAN PRE-PROCESSING BALLOTS (opening return envelopes, and checking if ballot # batches envelope)

Where is it happening?
YELLOW = today (4% statewide population)
BLUE = today *and* tomorrow (10% statewide population)
RED = tomorrow (11% statewide population) Traverse City, Alpena and Escanaba are also tomorrow

🚨🚨🚨🚨
Here's my FINAL Michigan State Senate ratings (tossups removed). Democrats have a good chance of flipping the chamber for the first time in 40 years. They must three out of the 7 battleground seats. all 7 seats have a chance of going for either party. it is important to understand 15%, 20% or 25% chance doesn't mean 0%.

target smart numbers for Michigan are honestly a little hard to believe. idk how mail ballots breakdown changed so much from 2020 to 2022

Also their final 2020 sample (including Election Day) was GOP 41-37 but Biden won by 3 so their definition of indies was very left leaning Michigan doesn’t have party registration so that’s that

palm beach at D+20% mail+in-person while miami is at D+0.5% is certainly confusing. Both counties are are roughly D+10% voter registration so its all about turnout differential 22% of Republicans in Miami have voted. Relative to only 17% of registered Democrats who have voted. Dems need their voters out to vote.

NEVADA , in person early votes

2020:
Day 1 Clark: Dem +7% (27k)
Day 2 Clark: Dem +0.7% (23k)
Day 3 Clark: GOP +7% (29k)
Day 4 Clark: GOP +10% (30k)

2022
Day 1 Clark: GOP +8% (11k)
Day 2 Clark: GOP +6% (8k)
Day 3 Clark: ???
Day 4 Clark: ???

turnout WAY down Very critical day
Where does GOP % advantage go from Day 2 -> 3

In 2020, Day 1 -> 2 -> 3 -> 4 got progressively better for GOP

In 2022, no movement from Day 1 -> 2

9 days before the primary
Here's the combined FL mail + in-person early voting
DEM 573,009 (46%)
GOP 492,583 (39%) we all know about election day turnout how much it skews GOP so this is mostly just for fun exercise!