Introducing Nifty Next 50, a new investment strategy that outperforms the Nifty 50 index and large cap funds over the long term by 3-4%.

Know-it-all thread on Nifty Next 50 and how to invest in it

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What is the Nifty Next 50 Index?

Like in cricket, we had icons like Sachin Tendulkar, Sunil Gavaskar & Don Bradman. Today we have players like Joe Root and Virat Kohli who set new standards.

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Similarly, the NIFTY Next 50, also known as Nifty Junior, is an index that includes a group of stocks in the stock market. These businesses aspire to be a part of the NIFTY50 stocks league

NIFTY Next 50 represents performance of 50 large cap stocks that come after NIFTY50

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Performance of Nifty Next 50 and Nifty 50 over the years

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Calendar year-wise performance of NIFTY Junior vs NIFTY

When analyzing year-by-year performance, 13 out of 23 calendar years witnessed NIFTY Junior exceed the NIFTY. Particularly in the years 1999, 2003, 2009, 2012 & 2017, NIFTY Junior outperformed the market significantly

5/n
The Junior index carries a slightly higher risk of volatility than the Nifty 50, but the Junior Nifty has generated better gains over the long run.

This is because of the outperformers in the Junior Index eventually being candidates for inclusion in the Nifty 50 index.

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Additionally, the junior performs poorly in years of bear markets, but in years of bull markets, this index will outperform the Nifty by a margin of 3–5% over the long term.

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Diversification & Stock Concentration

The top ten holdings of the Nifty 50 represent 57% of the index, which, in the case of Nifty Junior, is less than 33%. Junior Nifty has lower stock concentration of the two indices.

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Due to Nifty's high concentration of market capitalization in sector leaders, top holdings of Nifty may exceed 10%. Top holdings in Nifty Jr. did not surpass 5%

So with broader market participation, Nifty Jr. outperforms Nifty. Nifty does well in polarized markets

9/n
Sectoral composition

Compared to Nifty, Nifty Jr. is more diversified & has a lower sector concentration.

Nifty Jr. includes 6 sectors to make up 63% of the composition, while Nifty includes top 3 sectors to account for over 63% of its makeup.

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An imp factor is Nifty's substantial exposure - 37% to Banking & Financial services sector. It may be poised to gain due to structural factors & anticipated rerating as a result of improvement in financial performances & loan books for high-quality banks & select NBFCs

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Nifty Junior index, on the other hand, is made up of developing blue chips that are often consistent steady compounders and also has a good exposure to new age sectors that are becoming more and more important in the leading indices.

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Valuations : PE Multiples

Compared to its 10-year historical average of 20.12x, Nifty Jr. is currently trading at a PE multiple of 22x

10-year average PE multiple for Nifty is roughly 18x, but it's currently trading at 21x.

13/n
Both indices are currently trading at a premium above their historical mean.

But the Junior Index is trading at valuations closer to its Historic Multiples.

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How to Invest in Nifty Jr.?

On StockEdge, you will get Index Mutual Funds that are simulating the Nifty Jr.

Alternatively, you can also invest in Nifty Jr. ETFs if you want to trade this index or invest on your days of choice.

15/n
Few examples:
1. Nippon India Junior Bees
2. SBI ETF Next 50
3. UTI Next50 etc.

However, when it comes to ETFs, liquidity can be a problem. In case of low volumes, it may get difficult for a seller to offload large amounts of holdings leading to a high impact cost

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Which Index Should You Invest In?

The return & risk profiles of the two large cap indices vary. Your needs will determine the index you should select. To replace an actively managed Large Cap Fund, for example, you may use NIFTY 50.

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If U want to take slightly higher risk than NIFTY, but don't want to invest in Mid Cap, then NIFTY Jr. is a good option. U can also invest in both. Depending on how much volatility U can handle, U might have bigger share in NIFTY & lower share in Nifty Jr., or vice versa

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For more detailed insights watch my video -

#StockMarketindia #nifty50 #niftynext50

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More from @vivbajaj

Jul 20
What is momentum? A thread

A football player running on the football ground has momentum as he is in motion. And the faster a football player runs, the more difficult it is for him to stop. Because as the velocity of an object increases, its momentum also increases.

1/n
Now let's define this in stock market parlance. Any stock showing strong motion due to agressive position building on either side. Typically bullish momentum is more accurately predicted due to availability of cash for buying.

How to measure it ?

2/n
The best measurement tool is the simple price action. Typically high momentum stocks make weekly higher highs and higher lows for long period of time. Also they trade above their weekly VWAP for many weeks.

3/n

Case : Blue Dart recently
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Jul 19
A thread on evolution of my Relative Strength theory.

I was an active trader till 2013 before I decided to become a passive trader. I found swing trading (apart from investing) to be the best strategy for me since I was also involved in other business initiatives.

1/n
I read many market books in 2013-14 and attended many paid training sessions.

And finally adapted Relative Strength model for my journey.

The starting point of RS was simple graph of Price of Nifty by Price of Stock. Objective was to identify strong stock visavis market.

2/n
This simple technique worked fantastically till 2016 before I realised that there is need of improvisation.I developed the model further and filtered stocks based on this:

Any stock outperforming market for 1W as well as 3M is strong.We developed the scan in @mystockedge

3/n
Read 11 tweets
Jul 12
A thread on Price action and how to identify stocks showing strong price action.

For me price action is when you answer the What,When,Why,How and Where of price movement of any underlying.

Its a language you use to communicate with the underlying.

Key Parameters thread

1/n
Short term price action is judged when the underlying is crossing precious day high or low. Why last day action is important?Because there are enough short term traders who act at these levels,especially if that day had lots of activities showcased by volume and delivery.

2/n
Monthly high, low, close are again important as the stocks are typically evaluated on monthly basis for mid term performance. Operator building large positions will react when market breaches these critical levels.

3/n
Read 8 tweets
Feb 20
IIFL Finance - a thread from @mystockedge outputs

1. Strong price action:

Price is trading above all mid to long term moving averages
Supertrend positive
Daily RS above Zero
RSI around 50

1/n
2. Delivery based activities at lower levels. Especially around 280 to 310
3. Trading within 52 week high zone and 2 year high zone, indicating bullish trend.
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Feb 15
As a prop trader since 2006 with 150 inhouse full time traders our Edge always was transaction cost, technology and access to information using Bloomberg and other terminals. That is now available to everyone.

Still 99 percent people loosing money. Why ?

Thread 1/n
1. Most of them have no idea why they are partcipating in the market? They start with trading and if loss in position, become investor or they start with investing and seeing the small profit they become trader.

First thing First Know yourself. Use this:
2. Secondly people spend too much time looking at the trading terminal. And now with terminal on mobile phones, its even worst. The color changes around bid and ask always excites human mind and invites to trade more. Its like any other vice. Try trading without these.
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Feb 12
Super excited to see many participants for my #Learn2Trade quiz. Earlier I wanted to give top 25 special reward. Because of large number of participants, the winners of reward is now 50.

Here is the thread with names of the winners. Image
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