Thread by @shashj

🧵 Western official, with an update on the war on November 3rd. Quite a few useful insights on Russia's withdrawal of command elements from Kherson right bank, possibility of "operational level" developments in Svatove in east, and playing down of nuclear risk & Belarus front.

Western official: "We're seeing a force gradually growing with the arrival of mobilised reservists—but a low quality one likely little suited to complex offensive operations. Above all, the Russians are critically short of munitions."

Western official on Russian munitions: "somewhere between what they had at start of conflict and what they need to keep for [a] potential NATO conflict ... is trade space. And...they have eaten dangerously into that, to a point where they cannot use them casually"

Western official: "they have lots of things in storage. The problem with that is ... it has to be fit for purpose. Many of those munitions coming out of storage wouldn't be passed for use in a Western military environment; they would fail the standards tests."

Western official expresses confidence that Russian planning to withdraw from Kherson is "well advanced. A large portion of the civilian population has now moved east and Russia has highly likely prioritised a temporary bolstering of force in the area to cover the retreat."

Western official: "it's likely that most echelons of command have now withdrawn across the river, leaving demoralised and leaderless men to face Ukrainian assaults." Calls it "terrible leadership". Adds that Russian defensive lines on Dnieper right bank being built up.

Western official: "the [Kherson] retreat is going to be presented as an evacuation. So it won't be presented as a military retreat in that sense. When it does go ahead, we expect another uptick in pointed domestic criticism of Russia's national leadership."

Western official: "Rates of losses of sudden types of Russian helicopters remain extremely high. They are using an increasingly desperate collection of ageing long range munitions to strike targets at depth...at least some reservists are arriving in a theatre without weapons."

Western official on Luhansk front. In Donbas, "we've seen a reduction in fighting but we haven't seen a cessation in fighting". Singles out importance of Svatove: "The developments in Svatove sector have the potential to soon assume operational level of significance."

Western official on Russia's long-standing attack in the Bakhmut direction. Says Russians pushed back a week ago; "it's in statelmate at the moment...it's kind of totemic for them they don't want to give up. And in particular I think for Wagner group, they feel it's important."

Official: "support for the war...remains fairly consistent in the Russian leadership group & debate is over the means...we do not see at this stage that debates within the top of the Russian system over the conduct of the war, reflect any serious threats to Putin's position"

Western official: "in terms of nuclear activity, I've seen nothing which gives me cause for concern. In fact, [Russian] MFA has made another statement about the conditions under which nuclear weapons would be used, which ... downplay the risks of them being used"

A different Western official: "what we see in their [Russian] public statements is apparently an attempt to de-escalate the nuclear rhetoric which they have previously generated. And that is something which we thoroughly support". Ref. to this statement:

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1587882877995425792?s=20&t=DlKitkgkbzknnzSmisjTkA

Western official on risk of attack by/from Belarus: "I'm not currently worried about...Belarus. The Russian forces which are deployed in Belarus appear to be deployed in the centre of the country away from the borders and, in our judgement, are there to fix Ukrainian forces"

Western official on morale: "we see pockets of desperate morale issues, both command level and from the troops themselves. What is difficult to say, as you piece it all together is, is how how endemic that is to the whole Russian community." Adds: no sign of mutiny.