~50,000 ballots were returned, bringing us across the threshold of ONE MILLION votes cast (1,017,019).
Dem return rate crossed another major threshold of 72.6% of all ballots returned.
GOP return rate is 69.7%.
Takeways below.
Solid green = 80%+
Light green = 70-80%
Yellow = 60-70%
1. All PA counties are now out of the "red" zone. 2. Montgomery County followed Bucks and finally got its act together with the ballots, crossing over 70% returned there today. Good news for Fett. 3. Another batch of counties will cross 80% tomorrow.
4. SEPA is continuing its trend of catching up quickly with the rest of the state as Bucks signaled in recent days (and now MontCo). 5. Dem firewall is now 500,000+ votes strong. 6. Dems outnumber GOP 2:1 with remaining ballots to return.
~42,000 ballots were returned, bringing us to ~1,060,000 cast.
Dem return rate went up to 75.3%, breaking the threshold of 3/4s of all ballots returned.
GOP return rate is now 73%.
A few interesting observations with this one. Let's dive in.
Solid green = 80%+
Light green = 70-80%
Yellow = 60-70%
1. More collar counties have caught up today and crossed the 70% threshold. 2. Dem firewall is now 520,000+ strong. 3. Delaware County will cross 70% in the next batch to drop. 4. We have a handful of counties knocking on the 95%+ return rate door, should hit it in the next drop.
There's been a lot of conversation on the merits of analyzing the early vote this evening. Since I'm doing a fair bit of it for PA, allow me to offer a few thoughts about it. (1/x)
Disclaimer: I will say this - you do have to be careful about doing stuff like that. It varies wildly from state to state in terms of effectiveness. A big reason why I'm doing this revolves around testing a wider hypothesis I have about a hybrid model of election analysis. (2/x)
Subsequently, many of you quite rightly wonder how and where I came out of nowhere to start doing analysis for #PASen on an in-depth level. It just so happens that this year and an election that I'm heavily invested in finally allowed me the chance to test my thesis. (3/x)
Dark green = 80%+ of ballots returned.
Light green = 70-80% of ballots returned.
Yellow = 60-70% of ballots returned.
Red = 50-60% of ballots returned.
Purple = 40-50% of ballots returned.
Once 95%+ of ballots in a county have been returned, the county color will turn blue.
Now for the fun stuff.
1. Dem firewall is now almost at 450,000+.
2. Collar counties are still struggling with their returns. They better hope their slower reporting is straightened out on Election Night or else it's going to be a long week for all of us.